Stocks and Their Valuation

1. Chapter 9 Stocks and Their Valuation Features of Common Stock Determining Common Stock Values Preferred Stock

2. Facts about Common Stock • Represents ownership • Ownership implies control • Stockholders elect directors • Directors elect management • Management’s goal: Maximize the stock value • Preemptive right

3. Intrinsic Value & Stock Price • Investors, corporate insiders& analysts use a variety of approaches to estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0) • In equilibrium:assume stock’s price (=)its intrinsic value • Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help determine which stocks are attractive to buy and/or sell. • Mangers should care to better understand what affects their IV in terms of their actions • Stocks with a price belowits intrinsic value (undervalued) • Stocks with a price aboveits intrinsic value (overvalued)

4. Determinants of Intrinsic Value and Stock Prices “True” Investor Cash Flows “True” Risk “Perceived” Investor Cash Flows “Perceived” Risk Managerial Actions, the Economic Environment, Taxes, and the Political Climate Stock’s Intrinsic Value Stock’s Market Price Market Equilibrium:Intrinsic Value = Stock Price

5. What is the value of any asset?

6. Different Approaches for Estimating the Intrinsic Value of a Common Stock • Discounted dividend model • Corporate valuation model • P/E multiple approach • EVA approach

7. Discounted Dividend Model • Value of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock.

8. Constant Growth Stock • A stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. • D1 = D0(1 + g)1 • D2 = D0(1 + g)2 • Dt = D0(1 + g)t • Also called Gordon model • If g is constant, the discounted dividend formula converges to:

9. $ 0.25 0 Years (t) Future Dividends and Their Present Values

10. Dividends vs. Growth • What affects expected P0? • Dividends • r • g • You have a $1,000,000 business with no debt. Equity = $1,000,000. ROE = 10%. • What is NI? • What will happen if you take out all earnings as dividends? • What will happen if you only take out 40% of earnings?

11. What happens if g > rs? • If g > rs, the constant growth formula leads to a negative stock price, • which does not make sense!! • The constant growth model can only be used if: • rs > g. • g is expected to be constant forever.

12. Use the SML to Calculate the Required Rate of Return (rs) • If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, & b = 1.2, what is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock? rs = rRF + (rM – rRF)b = 7% + (12% – 7%)1.2 = 13%

13. 0 1 2 3 g = 6% 2.12 2.247 2.382 1.8761 rs = 13% 1.7599 1.6509 Find the Expected Dividend Stream for the Next 3 Years and Their PVs D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%.

14. What is the stock’s intrinsic value? Using the constant growth model:

15. What is the stock’s expected value, one year from now? • D1 will have been paid out already. So, expected P1 is the present value (as of Year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc. • Could also find expected P1 as:

16. Find Expected Dividend Yield, Capital Gains Yield& Total Return During First Year • Dividend yield = D1/P0 = $2.12/$30.29 = 7.0% • Capital gains yield = (P1 – P0)/P0 = ($32.10 – $30.29)/$30.29 = 6.0% • Total return (rs) = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield = 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%

17. Exmple

18. Exmple

19. 0 1 2 3 rs = 13% 2.00 2.00 2.00 What would the expected price today be if g = 0? The dividend stream would be a perpetuity.

20. Supernormal Growth What if g = 30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%? • Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value. • However, the growth does become constant after 3Yrs • For many firms growth is not constant • Instead many firms go through a life cycle in which they observe very high g

22. 2.301 2.647 3.045 46.114 54.107 = Valuing Common Stock with Nonconstant Growth D0 = $2.00. 0 1 2 3 4 rs = 13% g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6% 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658 PV of dividends during Gs period & PV of price for constant growth period. P3 is called horizon (terminal) value

23. Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains Yields During the First and Fourth Years • Dividend yield (first year) = $2.60/$54.11 = 4.81% • Capital gains yield (first year) = 13.00% – 4.81% = 8.19% • During nonconstant growth, dividend yield & capital gains yield are not constant &capital gains yield ≠ g • After t = 3, the stock has constant growth & dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%

24. Exmple

25. Exmple

26. 0 1 2 3 4 rs = 13% g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6% 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12 1.77 1.57 1.39 20.99 25.72 = Nonconstant Growth: What if g = 0% for 3 years before long-run growth of 6%? D0 = $2.00.

27. Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains Yields During the First and Fourth Years • Dividend yield (first year) = $2.00/$25.72 = 7.78% • Capital gains yield (first year) = 13.00% – 7.78% = 5.22% • After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.

28. If the stock was expected to have negative growth (g = -6%), would anyone buy the stock, and what is its value? • Yes. • Even though the dividends are declining, the stock is still producing cash flows and therefore has positive value.

29. Find Expected Annual Dividend & Capital Gains Yields • Capital gains yield = g = -6.00% • Dividend yield = 13.00% – (-6.00%) = 19.00% • Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield &capital gains yield are constant • Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset negative capital gains

30. DDM is good for mature companies with stable dividends growth However this is not the case for all firms

31. Corporate Valuation Model • Also called the free cash flow method. Suggests the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firm’s free cash flows • Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s after-tax operating income less the net capital investment • FCF = EBIT(1 – T) – Net capital investment

32. Applying the Corporate Valuation Model • Find the market value (MV) of the firm, by finding the PV of the firm’s future FCFs • Subtract MV of firm’s debt &preferred stock to get MV of common stock • Divide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value).

33. Issues Regarding the Corporate Valuation Model • Often preferred to the discounted dividend model, • Especially When • Considering number of firms that don’t pay dividends • Dividends are hard to forecast • Similar to discounted dividend model, assumes at some point free cash flow will grow at a constant rate • Horizon value (HVN) represents value of firm at the point that growth becomes constant.

34. r= 10% g = 6% -4.545 8.264 15.026 398.197 416.942 Use the Corporate Valuation Model to Find the Firm’s Intrinsic Value Given: Long-Run gFCF = 6% & WACC = 10% 0 1 2 3 4 -5 10 20 21.20

35. What is the firm’s intrinsic value per share? The firm has $40 million total in debt & preferred stock and has 10 million shares of common stock.

36. Example

37. Firm Multiples Method • Analysts often use the following multiples to value stocks • P/E • P/CF • P/Sales • EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price

38. EVA Approach EVA = Equity capital(ROE – Cost of equity) MVEquity = BVEquity + PV of all future EVAs Value per share = MVEquity/# of shares

39. Preferred Stock • Hybrid security: Has some characteristics from a common stock & some of a bond • Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders. • However, companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.

40. If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the preferred stock’s expected return?

41. Exmple