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JMA's Operations for Mega-Disasters - Tsunami Warnings as an Example

This article discusses the background of mega disasters in Japan, improvements in tsunami warnings after the 2011 tsunami, JMA's role in disaster prevention, and suggestions for reducing potential risks.

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JMA's Operations for Mega-Disasters - Tsunami Warnings as an Example

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  1. JMA’s Operations for Mega-Disasters - Tsunami Warnings as an example Noritake NISHIDE Director General Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1

  2. The background of mega disasters in Japan - Earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions - Tropical cyclones Hypocenter determined by JMA in 2010: about 128,000 (approx.350/day) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tropical_cyclones_1945_2006_wikicolor.png 2

  3. Tsunami Warnings on March 11, 2011 and the improvements after the tsunami 8.5m or higher at Miyako (Iwate Pref.) 8.0m or higher at Ofunato (Iwate Pref.) 9.3m or higher at Soma (Fukushima Pref.) 7 (Max) Kurihara City （MiyagiPref.） Distribution of JMA Seismic Intensity Observed Tsunami （height） Date and Time: 11 March 2011 14:46 JST (05:46 UTC) Magnitude: 9.0 (the largest earthquake recorded in Japan) Hypocenter: N38.1, E142.9 Depth 24km (130km ESE off Ojika Peninsula) 3

  4. Tsunami Warnings/Advisories 3 m 6 m Numbers represent forecasted maximum tsunami heights 3 m 4

  5. Tsunami Warnings/Advisories 1st Update 3 6 m 6 over 10 m 3 6 m 5

  6. Tsunami Warnings/Advisories 2nd Update 6 over 10 m over 10 m 6 over 10 m 6

  7. This was the optimal response possible with the system used at the time in terms of science and technology However, death and missing reached 20,000 Based on lessons learned from the disaster, JMA improved its tsunami warning operations 7

  8. Improvements in tsunami warning operations Broadband Strong Motion Meter Offshore Tsunami Meter Observe very long-period seismic wave by broadband strong motion data (80 sites) 3 DART buoys off the Tohoku coast Qualitative expression Intensify offshore observation network in cooperation with relevant organizations Pressure sensors (JMA, ERI, JAMSTEC) GPS tsunami meter (PHB) DONET (JAMSTEC), S-net (NIED) Detail will be given at the Public Forum on 18 March 8

  9. Advantage of JMA’s operations - positive side of Tsunami Warnings on March 11 JMA's staff managed to issue initial Tsunami Warnings withinaround3minutesaftertheearthquakeoccurrence, in a strongly shaken operation room. Mega disasters are relatively rare. - JMA issues earthquake information every day (~ 2,000 felt earthquakes/year; 5 times if imperceptible quakes are included) - JMA conducts periodic drills for mega disasters based on various scenarios. - JMA engages in multi-hazard operations covering the whole process, observationsdata analysesforecastswarningissuancescancellations therefore, it can make a professional decision in timely and appropriate manner putting all factors together 9

  10. Disaster prevention operation schemes and JMA’s role 10

  11. JMA’s missions and goals Missions ・Observation of natural phenomena ・Provision of information (forecasts and warnings) ・Promoting utilization of information Goals ・ Prevention and mitigation of natural disasters ・ Safety of transportation ・ Development and prosperity of industry ・ Improvement of public welfare Services Satellite UV SKY Weather (Long-term) Climate Heat-Island CO2 (Global Warming) Photochemical Smog El Niño/La Niña Yellow Sand Storm Surge Volcano Landslide Wind Wave Flood Oceanographic -Condition Earthquake Sea Level Change Tsunami GROUND OCEAN 11

  12. Advantage of JMA’s multi-hazard operations JMA is responsible in warning issuances in various fields such as weather warnings, marine warnings, tsunami warnings, volcanic warnings... For the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, JMA issued - Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) - Tsunami Warning/Advisory JMA adjusted - HeavyRainWarningsforincreasedriskofsedimentdisaster - Heavy Rain Warnings for increased risk of flooding and inundation - Criteria of Storm Surge Warning due to land subsidence …… 12

  13. Suggestion towards the reduction of the potential risk and impact of mega disasters Including daily exercise in the SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) ofrelevantdisastermanagementorganizations(ideallyasarealduty) Proper operations even at a sudden huge disaster occurrence e.g. the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 13

  14. Thank you 14

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