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ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT. Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. BASIC ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKSHOP 23-26 JULY, 2007 PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA SHEBO NALISHEBO. Presentation Outline. Overview of Zambia Organisational structure of the CSO Economic Statistics Division National Accounts

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ZAMBIA COUNTRY REPORT

Republic of Zambia

Central Statistical Office

BASIC ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKSHOP

23-26 JULY, 2007

PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA

SHEBO NALISHEBO

presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • Overview of Zambia
  • Organisational structure of the CSO
  • Economic Statistics Division
    • National Accounts
    • Industrial Production
    • External Trade and Balance of Payments
    • Living Conditions Monitoring
    • Prices and Consumption Studies
    • Public Finance
  • Sources & Estimation Methods
  • Dissemination of economic statistics
  • Short comings
  • Constraints
zambia demographics
Zambia - Demographics
  • Surrounded by 8 other countries
  • Total area: 752, 000 km2
  • Populated by 12 million people
  • Copper remains the main export (80 %)
  • Per capita GDP: US$910 (2006 prelim.)
  • Economic growth rate: 5.9 % (2006 prelim.)
  • Inflation rate: 11.1 % (June 2007)
organizational structure of the cso
Organizational Structure of the CSO
  • The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP)
  • Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to produce official national statistics
  • These include:
    • Population and housing census (conducted every ten years)
    • Economic Census (to be carried out every five years)
    • Census of Agriculture
    • Other periodical national social and economic surveys
  • The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia
  • Headed by a Director and is divided into four divisions each headed by a Deputy Director
national accounts branch
National Accounts Branch
  • Responsible for the compilation of GDP on an annual basis
  • Co-ordinate the conducting of the Economic Census (on-going)
  • Carry out establishment-based income accounting surveys (National Income Inquiry)
external trade and bop
External Trade and BoP
  • Responsible for the processing and analysis, compilation of merchandize trade statistics with the rest of the world. This is done on a monthly basis with a one-month time lag.
  • Also supplies trade data to National accounts branch for purposes of production of expenditure GDP.
  • Balance of Payments statistics, however, are compiled at the Central Bank [‘Gentleman's’ Agreement]
industrial production branch
Industrial Production Branch
  • Responsible for the compilation of the quarterly Index of Industrial Production
    • Covers mining, manufacturing and electricity
  • Census of Industrial Production
prices branch
Prices Branch
  • Responsible for the compilation of the Consumer Price Index used to calculate inflation
  • Compiled on a monthly basis
  • Most timely-produced economic indicator: disseminated every last Thursday of the reference month
  • Provides indices for use in the deflation of GDP
public finance branch
Public Finance Branch
  • Responsible for the compilation of Government and quasi-government Financial Statistics
  • Functional and economic classification of general government expenditure
  • Secondary collection and compilation of monetary statistics
living conditions monitoring branch
Living Conditions Monitoring Branch
  • Conducts the Living Conditions monitoring survey every other year
  • Used for computation of poverty estimates and poverty maps
  • Updating of CPI weights
  • Direct measurement of Household Final Consumption Expenditure
data sources
Data Sources
  • National Accounts Branch
  • The primary sources of data for the compilation of GDP include:
    • Census of Agriculture
    • Census of industrial production covering mining, manufacturing and electricity
    • Census of Construction
    • National Income Inquiry covering the services sector
    • The Government accounts for community, social and personal services and government final consumption expenditure.
    • The 1993/1994 Household Budget Survey (HBS) for estimating household final consumption expenditure and the informal sector.
    • Imports and exports from the External Trade statistics and transactions with the rest of the world from Balance of Payments statistics.
data sources15
Data Sources
  • Secondary sources for GDP compilation: use of volume and price indicators
    • Annual crop forecast and post-harvest surveys
    • Quarterly index of industrial production
    • Consumer Price Index
    • Turnover from VAT register
data sources16
Data Sources
  • External Trade statistics
    • Main data source is customs data from the customs and exercise division.
    • Non-Customs sources (e.g. electricity and crude oil)
    • Monthly survey of major importers and exporters for data verification
  • Industrial Production statistics
    • Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments in 4 provinces (for the quarterly Index of Industrial Production)
data sources17
Data Sources
  • Prices statistics
    • About 15, 000 price quotations obtained on a monthly basis from nearly 2, 000 retail outlets throughout the country
  • Public Finance statistics
    • Data obtained from annual financial reports on income and expenditure of government, and quasi-government institutions
data sources18
Data Sources
  • Living Conditions Statistics
    • Data obtained directly from household surveys
    • Indicator monitoring survey conducted every two years
    • Longitudinal survey with HBS module to be conducted every five years
compilation methods
Compilation methods
  • Economic statistics compilation based on internationally recognized methodologies
    • 1968 & 1993 SNA, BPM5, 2001 GFS Manual, etc.
  • Classifications used include:
    • ISIC Rev. 3, HS, SITC Rev. 3, COFOG, COICOP
    • Plans are underway to implement ISIC Rev. 4 for the upcoming Economic Census, COICOP for CPI
dissemination
Dissemination
  • The Monthly bulletin, released every last Thursday of the month through a press briefing
  • Monthly CPI press releases
  • Website: www.zamstats.gov.zm
  • Publications: External Trade, National Accounts
  • Soft copies by request
users
Users
  • Users are invited to dissemination for a
  • User-producer workshops held before surveys are carried out to take their concerns on board
  • Mixed reactions
  • Some users are very supportive
  • Statistics may still be misunderstood, so some express dissatisfaction
shortcomings in na compilation
Shortcomings in NA compilation
  • Remote benchmark year (1994)
  • Outdated weights for deflators
  • No appropriate volume indicators for trade, business and personal services
  • There are a lot of small-scale operators in these industries
  • Coverage of informal sector was only at the benchmark year
  • No current price estimates for private consumption; derived residually
shortcomings
Shortcomings
  • For External Trade:
    • Quantity data from customs sources poor
    • No Trade indices produced (e.g. unit value indices, unit price indices) due to poor quantity/price data.
  • Industrial Production
    • Census of Industrial Production not conducted regularly
    • Outdated weights
  • Public Finance
    • Poor coverage of local government sector
shortcomings24
Shortcomings
  • Prices:
    • Outdated weights (1994)
industry
Industry
  • The classification used for industries is the ISIC rev. 2
  • Rev. 3 was implemented when the 2003 enterprise surveys were carried out [yet to be incorporated]
  • For the Economic Census, rev. 4 will be used
industry26
Industry
  • GDP is reported using three major sectors:
    • Primary
    • Secondary, and
    • Tertiary
  • Under the primary sector:
    • Agriculture, forestry and fishing
    • Mining and quarrying
industry27
Industry
  • Under the secondary sector
    • Manufacturing
    • Construction
  • Under the tertiary sector
    • Trade
    • Hotels, bars and restaurants
    • Transport and communications
    • Financial intermediation and insurance
    • Real estate and business services
    • Community, social and personal services
agriculture
Agriculture
  • Primary data source: Census of Agriculture
  • Secondary data source: Annual Crop forecasting survey & Post harvest survey
  • Agriculture season: Oct 1 – 30th Sep
  • Output recorded in the year of harvest
  • Broken down into crops, livestock and vegetables & fruits
  • Weights: Crops (60%); livestock (30%); fruits & vegetables (10%)
forestry fishing
Forestry & Fishing
  • Data on forestry obtained from the Department of Forestry
  • Number of logs in cubic metres
  • Alternate sources: Forestry establishments
  • Data on fish catches in metric tonnes obtained from 11 major fishing areas across the country
mining and quarrying
Mining and quarrying
  • Industry broken down into metal mining and Other mining and quarrying
  • Metal mining consists of copper and cobalt production
  • Other mining includes coal mining and stone quarrying
  • Mineral export index used as deflator
manufacturing
Manufacturing
  • Data obtained from Census of Industrial Production and the quarterly Index of Industrial Production
  • Scope:
    • Food, beverages and tobacco
    • Textiles, clothing & footwear
    • Wood and wood products
    • Paper & paper products
    • Chemicals, rubber & plastics
    • Non-metallic mineral products
    • Basic metal products
    • Fabricated metal products
electricity water
Electricity & Water
  • KWh of electricity generated by ZESCO-owned & Lunsemfwa hydro power stations
  • Main, mini-hydro and diesel stations
  • Hydro stations generate 99 % of total electricity
  • Water data from NWASCO (Water regulatory body)
construction
Construction
  • Primary data source: Census of Construction
  • Secondary indicators: Input indicators used to estimate output
    • Cement sales
    • Stone quarrying
  • Index of building materials used for deflation
trade business personal services
Trade, Business & Personal Services
  • No direct indicators used for these sectors
  • Trade industry assumes output from Agriculture, manufacturing and imports of consumption goods are disposed of through trade
  • Business services follows the same trend as Trade
  • Personal services follow the same trend as Business Services
hotels restaurants
Hotels & Restaurants
  • Bed occupancy rates used; obtained from the Ministry of Tourism
  • Bars and restaurant data obtained indirectly from the Food, Beverages and Tobacco sub-sector under Manufacturing
transport communications
Transport & Communications
  • Transport broken down into:
    • Rail transport (data on number of passengers & tonnage of haulage obtained from 2 firms)
    • Road and pipeline transport (passenger & cargo hauled; registered public service vehicles)
    • Air transport (passengers embarking & disembarking at the 4 main airports)
  • Postal and telecommunications services
financial institutions insurance
Financial institutions & Insurance
  • Employment
  • FISIM
  • Number of policies issued
real estate business services
Real estate & business services
  • Real estate: urban population growth rates
  • Business services: assumed to have the same trends as Retail Trade
community social personal services
Community, social & personal services
  • Data mainly for government sector
  • Uses costs (Intermediate consumption, compensation of employees) to estimate output
  • Data obtained from Public Finance unit which gets it from Budget Office
  • Personal services assumed to follow the movements of Business Services
constraints
Constraints
  • Budgetary constraints in other government agencies affects production of statistics (e.g. tourism, fisheries, local authorities)
  • Poor quality customs quantity data
  • Outdated and Weak Statistics Act
end of presentation

End of Presentation

Thank You For Your Attention

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