Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and access to services

1. Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and access to services Prof. Simin Davoudi Director of Social Systems Institute for Research on Environment and Sustainability (IRES) Newcastle University ESPON Seminar Evora, 11-13 Nov. 2007

2. Declining share of European population • EU 25: 460 m. in 2005 • +3.9% since 1990 • National differences: • Cyprus grew by 31% • Estonia declined by 14% • Slovenia and Poland remained constant (0.1%+ and 0.4%+) • EU share of world population: • 16% in 1950; 7% in 2005 • By 2030 Europeans will account for 1 in 16 of the world’s population, down from 1 in 6 in 1950.

3. The Ageing Europe Fall in fertility rate • 2.7 in 1960, 1.4 in 2001 • To below reproduction rate (2.1) in all MS • Lowest in e.g. Northern Spain, Eastern Germany • Highest in e.g. Northern Finland and Ireland Fall in mortality rate Increase in longevity • Share of 60+ from 21% in 2000 to 30% by 2030 • Share of -20 from 23% to 15% • Life expectancy rises from average 76.5 to 84.5 years

4. ‘A Silver Century’ Median age in 2000 Median age in 2030

5. Sever ageing: 50-60 years by 2030 • Examples of regions with highest median age: • North West Spain • Northern Italy • Sardinia • Corsica • Eastern Germany • Scotland • Central Poland • Central Portugal

6. Migration • Dominant intra-EU flows: • Periphery to core • East to West • Immigration from outside the EU • Out-migration of highly qualified workers • Migration is age-specific • yellow-red: young; Blue-green: old

7. Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s • Population gain • 60% of NUTS regions • 30% due to natural and migratory rises • 20% due to selective (young) migration, despite low fertility • 10% due to negative migration but positive natural balance

8. Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s • Population loss • 40% of NUTS3 regions • 88 of 133 most declining are in Germany • Some are old industrial areas • Many are relatively rural, sparsely populated and geographically remote

9. Shrinking regions • Depopulation of small towns and rural areas • Due to a ‘triple demographic time bomb’: • Too few children • Too many old people • Too many young adults leaving • Counter-urbanisation • E.g. in the UK some 1700 people move out of the cities every week to live in countryside

10. Key Socio-economic challenges • Shrinking workforce • shortage of skilled labour • declining competitiveness of European economy • Late entry to and early exist from the labour market • Squeeze of workforce particularly among higher socio-economic groups • Rising dependency ratio (2 to 1 by 2030) • longer working hours, higher taxes

11. Key socio-economic challenges cont. • Growing number of older people • raising the cost of health care and pension • The ‘Ageing Europe’ • putting pressure on the European social model and welfare provision • ‘Grey’ voting power • shifting public spending away from nurseries and schools to health care and retirement homes, • blocking reform to retirement age and pension schemes

12. Key socio-economic challenges cont. • Social differentiation among older people • poverty and isolation among some who mainly live in urban areas using distance care packages versus • luxury life among others living in large houses with ‘carer quarters’, in retirement destinations • Immigration • response to demographic restructuring • increase in the cost of integration (employment, housing, crime, health care and education) • social and cultural tensions

13. Key territorial challenges • Differentiated patterns of demographic change: • An age element to: east / west, centre / periphery, south / north, urban / rural divisions • Countries with highest level of ageing population versus • countries with youngest population • Concentration of immigration from outside Europe in large and mainly capital cities

14. Key territorial challenges • Different territorial destinations forintra-European migration: • affluent retirees moving from north to south and Mediterranean regions, • east European workers searching for job in western European countries

15. Key territorial challenges cont. • Meso level territorial differentiation: metropolitanisation, depopulation and counter-urbanisation • Growing population in metropolitan areas both in western and eastern Europe versus • Depopulation of rural areas in eastern and western peripheries, central part of Germany, central and north Italy • Shrinking regions with declining basic services

16. Key territorial challenges cont. • Micro level spatial segregation • Affluent older people moving to rural areas with lower crime rates, good access to health services and pleasant climate versus • lower income older people remaining in urban areas