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Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and access to services. Prof. Simin Davoudi Director of Social Systems Institute for Research on Environment and Sustainability (IRES) Newcastle University ESPON Seminar Evora, 11-13 Nov. 2007. Declining share of European population.

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Workshop b aging shrinking regions and access to services

Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and access to services

Prof. Simin Davoudi

Director of Social Systems

Institute for Research on Environment and Sustainability (IRES)

Newcastle University

ESPON Seminar

Evora, 11-13 Nov. 2007

Declining share of european population
Declining share of European population

  • EU 25: 460 m. in 2005

    • +3.9% since 1990

  • National differences:

    • Cyprus grew by 31%

    • Estonia declined by 14%

    • Slovenia and Poland remained constant (0.1%+ and 0.4%+)

  • EU share of world population:

    • 16% in 1950; 7% in 2005

    • By 2030 Europeans will account for 1 in 16 of the world’s population, down from 1 in 6 in 1950.

The ageing europe
The Ageing Europe

Fall in fertility rate

  • 2.7 in 1960, 1.4 in 2001

  • To below reproduction rate (2.1) in all MS

  • Lowest in e.g. Northern Spain, Eastern Germany

  • Highest in e.g. Northern Finland and Ireland

    Fall in mortality rate

    Increase in longevity

  • Share of 60+ from 21% in 2000 to 30% by 2030

  • Share of -20 from 23% to 15%

  • Life expectancy rises from average 76.5 to 84.5 years

A silver century
‘A Silver Century’

Median age in 2000

Median age in 2030

Sever ageing 50 60 years by 2030
Sever ageing: 50-60 years by 2030

  • Examples of regions with highest median age:

    • North West Spain

    • Northern Italy

    • Sardinia

    • Corsica

    • Eastern Germany

    • Scotland

    • Central Poland

    • Central Portugal


  • Dominant intra-EU flows:

    • Periphery to core

    • East to West

  • Immigration from outside the EU

  • Out-migration of highly qualified workers

  • Migration is age-specific

  • yellow-red: young; Blue-green: old

Combined effect regional variations 1990s
Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s

  • Population gain

    • 60% of NUTS regions

    • 30% due to natural and migratory rises

    • 20% due to selective (young) migration, despite low fertility

    • 10% due to negative migration but positive natural balance

Combined effect regional variations 1990s1
Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s

  • Population loss

    • 40% of NUTS3 regions

    • 88 of 133 most declining are in Germany

    • Some are old industrial areas

    • Many are relatively rural, sparsely populated and geographically remote

Shrinking regions
Shrinking regions

  • Depopulation of small towns and rural areas

  • Due to a ‘triple demographic time bomb’:

    • Too few children

    • Too many old people

    • Too many young adults leaving

  • Counter-urbanisation

    • E.g. in the UK some 1700 people move out of the cities every week to live in countryside

Key socio economic challenges
Key Socio-economic challenges

  • Shrinking workforce

    • shortage of skilled labour

    • declining competitiveness of European economy

  • Late entry to and early exist from the labour market

    • Squeeze of workforce particularly among higher socio-economic groups

  • Rising dependency ratio (2 to 1 by 2030)

    • longer working hours, higher taxes

Key socio economic challenges cont
Key socio-economic challenges cont.

  • Growing number of older people

    • raising the cost of health care and pension

  • The ‘Ageing Europe’

    • putting pressure on the European social model and welfare provision

  • ‘Grey’ voting power

    • shifting public spending away from nurseries and schools to health care and retirement homes,

    • blocking reform to retirement age and pension schemes

Key socio economic challenges cont1
Key socio-economic challenges cont.

  • Social differentiation among older people

    • poverty and isolation among some who mainly live in urban areas using distance care packages versus

    • luxury life among others living in large houses with ‘carer quarters’, in retirement destinations

  • Immigration

    • response to demographic restructuring

    • increase in the cost of integration (employment, housing, crime, health care and education)

    • social and cultural tensions

Key territorial challenges
Key territorial challenges

  • Differentiated patterns of demographic change:

    • An age element to: east / west, centre / periphery, south / north, urban / rural divisions

    • Countries with highest level of ageing population versus

    • countries with youngest population

  • Concentration of immigration from outside Europe in large and mainly capital cities

Key territorial challenges1
Key territorial challenges

  • Different territorial destinations forintra-European migration:

    • affluent retirees moving from north to south and Mediterranean regions,

    • east European workers searching for job in western European countries

Key territorial challenges cont
Key territorial challenges cont.

  • Meso level territorial differentiation: metropolitanisation, depopulation and counter-urbanisation

    • Growing population in metropolitan areas both in western and eastern Europe versus

    • Depopulation of rural areas in eastern and western peripheries, central part of Germany, central and north Italy

    • Shrinking regions with declining basic services

Key territorial challenges cont1
Key territorial challenges cont.

  • Micro level spatial segregation

    • Affluent older people moving to rural areas with lower crime rates, good access to health services and pleasant climate versus

    • lower income older people remaining in urban areas