21 april 2010 ewec 2010 warsaw jan coelingh anthony crockford
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21 April 2010 EWEC 2010 Warsaw Jan Coelingh & Anthony Crockford. Best Practice for use of mesoscale models in wind resource assessments. Outline. Background Wind atlas products Methods Validation in North Sea Conclusions. Background. What is mesoscale modeling?

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21 april 2010 ewec 2010 warsaw jan coelingh anthony crockford
21 April 2010

EWEC 2010 Warsaw

Jan Coelingh & Anthony Crockford

Best Practice for use of mesoscale models in wind resource assessments

outline
Outline
  • Background
  • Wind atlas products
  • Methods
  • Validation in North Sea
  • Conclusions
background
Background
  • What is mesoscale modeling?
    • Mathematical models of the atmosphere that predict the weather, using observed data from a variety of sources, such as weather satellites and surface weather observations
    • Horizontal grid spacing in the model is typically between about 1 km and 20 km
    • Many processes are approximated through parametrisation
how useful are mesoscale model results for wind resource assessments at sites without measurements
How useful are mesoscale model results for wind resource assessments at sites without measurements?
  • Can a mesoscale wind atlas be used as a stand-alone product?
  • How should a mesoscale wind atlas be used in conjunction with measured wind data?
  • Validation exercise using two methods on two mesoscale model products
method a direct application
Method A – Direct application
  • Take a time series from mesoscale wind atlas at nearest grid point to the site
  • Describe terrain around grid point using the same basis as in the mesoscale modelling
  • Calculate generalised local wind climate, using the WAsP wind atlas methodology

The result of this post-processing is a regional wind statistic containing wind speed parameters for standard heights and roughness classes

method b correction factor applied to distant measurements
Method B – Correction factor applied to distant measurements
  • Calculate generalised local wind climate, based on measurements
  • Take a time series from mesoscale wind atlas at nearest grid point to the site, and nearest grid point to measurement site
  • Calculate correction factor (mean wind speed near site / mean wind speed near measurement site)
  • Apply correction factor to wind climate based on measurements
validation exercise in north sea1
Validation exercise in North Sea
  • Five data sets from KNMI points in The Netherlands
    • Europlatform 29 m 45 km
    • K13 74 m 105 km
    • Meetpost Noordwijk 28 m 10 km
    • L.E. Goeree 38 m 17 km
    • Vlakte van de Raan 17 m 15 km
  • One data set from MVB point in Belgium
    • Westhinder 25 m 30 km
  • Dedicated met mast in The Netherlands
    • OWEZ 70 m 15 km
  • Dedicated met platform in Germany
    • FINO 100 m 50 km
  • Dedicated met mast in southern North Sea
    • CONFIDENTIAL 40 m 6 km
further validation exercises
Further validation exercises
  • We have also completed a number of validation exercises for onshore sites in:
    • France
    • Poland
    • UK
  • With careful use of ‘Method A,’ wind farm energy yield is predicted to within ± 3-12%
conclusions 1
Conclusions (1)
  • Be aware of mesoscale model conditions: source data, boundaries, resolution, time scale
  • Select site-appropriate mesoscale models
    • e.g. higher resolution for coastal or complex sites
  • Validate mesoscale model results at several nearby sites
conclusions 2
Conclusions (2)
  • With proper post-processing, mesoscale wind atlases are suitable for preliminary WRAs
    • Combination of mesoscale wind atlas and micro-scale modeling allows for effective site assessments prior to measurements
  • Mesoscale model results can complement analysis based on distant measurements
    • The added-value of wind-speed gradients is especially evident offshore
  • Recommendation: make estimate of uncertainty and clearly state it
acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
  • Data Europlatform, Meetpost Noordwijk, L.E. Goeree, Vlakte van de Raan courtesy of KNMI
  • Data OWEZ courtesy of Noordzeewind
  • Data FINO 1 courtesy of German government
  • Mesoscale map courtesy of Anemos
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