Ryne P. Raffaelle National Center for Photovoltaics National Renewable Energy Lab

1. NREL Photovoltaic Science and Technology Ryne P. Raffaelle National Center for Photovoltaics National Renewable Energy Lab NY Solar Industries 2010 Albany, NY May 12-13, 2010

2. PV Industry Roadmap – US DOE • PV Opportunities in the U.S. • The US has the largest solar resource of any industrialized country in the world. • Developing the technology and industrial base to harness this resource is the key to the transformation “green economy” and the US economic recovery.

3. Solar Energy Potential 3 TW Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

4. Global Solar Energy Resource Average insolation kWh/m2/day

5. Worldwide Solar Energy Theoretical: 120,000 TW Energy in 1 hour of sunlight 14 TW Practical: ≈ 600 TW Solar Energy Potential 6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

6. In October 2008, the Alliance for Sustainable Energy was awarded the contract to manage NREL NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle

7. National Renewable Energy Lab • What makes NREL unique? • Only national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D • Collaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark • Ability to link scientific discovery and product development to accelerate commercialization National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

8. NREL’s R & D Portfolio • Renewable Resources • Wind and water • Solar • Biomass • Geothermal • Efficient Energy Use • Vehicle Technologies • Building Technologies • Industrial Technologies • Energy Delivery and Storage • Electricity Transmission and Distribution • Alternative Fuels • Hydrogen Delivery and Storage National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

9. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

10. Unprecedented Growth 2009 35% Growth Total Campus 25% NREL Staff (> 400 new hires) 111 Current Open Positions National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

11. NREL Funding and Staffing NREL just broke 2000 employee barrier in April! National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

12. Photovoltaic Timeline • 1839 – photovoltaic effect discovered • 1883 – first solar cell created • 1946 - modern pn junction solar cell demonstrated • 1954 – doped silicon first used in solar cells • 1958 - first spacecraft to use solar panels • 1970 – GaAs solar cells created • 1989 – first dual junction cell created • 1993 - first dual junction cells for spacecraft • 1995 – 30% efficiency barrier broken • 2004 – terrestrial solar cell production exceeds 1 GW • 2009 – 40% efficiency barrier broken

13. Research in the NCPV: Past NCPV

14. NCPV Charter The National Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV) focuses on innovations in PV technology that drive industry growth in U.S. photovoltaic manufacturing. The NCPV is directed to use the resources and capabilities of the national labs and universities for the benefit of the U.S. PV industry. The NCPV was created to enhance communication, catalyze strategic partnerships, and serve the PV industry a the place to come to access the wealth of knowledge and facilities within the DOE system. The NCPV charge is to accelerate PV as a viable energy option in the U.S.

15. World Record PV Efficiencies NREL NREL Technology Breakthroughs NREL NREL NREL NREL NREL NREL NREL

16. Solar Energy Research Facility Science & Technology Facility Outdoor Test Facility PV Facilities at NREL Process Development and Integration Lab

17. Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use - Photovoltaics (PV) DOE Solar Energy Technology Program Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Centralized Generation - large users or utilities - DOE Solar Electricity Technology Program System Integration Market Transformation

18. NCPV Technology Portfolio c-Si ~ 180 um 20x-100x III-V MJs, 500x CdTe, CIGs, a-Si~ 1-2 um

19. Growth of Global PV Industry

20. US PV Market Share

21. Global PV Deployment

22. Cost versus Production http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/solar/solar.html

23. Agenda Slide (Arial Narrow, 28 pt) = Q3 2009 Price = End-of-Year 2010 Price Public data from SEC, analysts, etc.

24. PV Production Status PV News ‘08 Actual 6.9 GW ▲ Navigant ‘08 Actual 5.4 GW ▲ * Goldman projection is for demand ** Navigant projection is for accelerated case

25. Policy Driven Scenarios Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

26. PV MarketPredictions Source: Navigant Consulting

27. NCPV: Present Thin Films Wafers Concentrators a-Si Crystalline Si Low X CdTe Poly X-tal Si High X CIGS III-V Portable Polymeric

28. Multijunction Solar Cells V1 V2 V3 load Multi-junction solar cell

29. Inverted Metamorphic Solar Cell • Creation of a fundamentally new technology path, the inverted lattice-mismatched (IMM) cell. This cell design resulted in the new 1 sun solar cell efficiency record (33.8%). Also, this technology allowed NREL to break the 40% AM1.5 photovoltaic conversion efficiency barrier under concentration! This technology shatters all records related to specific power (~3000 W/kg) (enabling for a host of PV spin-off applications, man portable energy scavenging, space power systems). • Remarkably rapid transfer of the technology to industry. RF Micro Devices, Emcore, Spectrolab, Microlink. • R&D 100 Award and the 2009 Federal Laboratory Consortium Award for Excellence in Technology Transfer.

30. Concentrating Photovoltaics > 40% Efficient

31. Thin Film PV • Amorphous Si (aSi) • CdTe • Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGS) Ascent Solar

32. BIPV

33. Size Matters

34. Efficiency 10% 20% 30% 40% 3.6 TW US Consumption Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

35. NCPV Future: Making PV More Sustainable • Economical • Raw materials usage • Abundant Materials • Manufacturability • Efficiency • Durability • Market Assessment • Environmentally Safe • Non-toxic alternatives • Aqueous based materials • Re-use, Reman, Recycle • Environmental Impact Assessment • Societal • Reliability • Building Integrated (BIPV) • Productization Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs – UN Bruntland Commission

36. Reliability Reliability Reliability Cost ($/W) Cost ($/W) Cost ($/W) Performance Performance Performance Cost Competitive Target DOE SETP Goals $/Watt of Module Price vs Efficiency and $/m2 Costs $ / Wp Efficiency $ / m2 2015 Goals: Residential 8-10 ¢/kWh Commercial 6-8 ¢/kWh Utility 5-7 ¢/kWh

37. Comparison of Production Costs for Conventional Silicon and CdTe Thin Film Modules Silicon $2.10/W CdTe $1.10/W Encapsulation 27% Encapsulation 50% Coated Glass 29% Feedstock 23% Ingot 12% Materials 3% Cell 24% Wafer 14% Equipment 13% Operating 5%

38. U.S. Production Trends Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

39. Predicted PV Revenues

40. Energy and Si-intensive wafers Add Heat Energy (1000 °C) Waste ~1/2 in sawing Add more heat energy (1500°C) silicon feedstock metallurgical grade Si pure SiHCl3 or SiH4 Sand Use 10X more than needed Add Carbon & Heat Energy CO2 • ~ 2 yr energy payback • $0.60/W - $1.00/W for feedstock alone

41. Vision for Si wafer replacement Directly deposit enough pure silicon for light absorption metallurgical grade Si Sand pure SiHCl3 or SiH4 Add Carbon & Heat Energy CO2 HWCVD is best low-T scalable technique NREL Si Group: H. Branz, MRS 2009

42. Next Generation PV • Metamorphic Growth • Inverted Metamorphic Growth • 4, 5, … Junction Devices • Dilute Nitride Devices • Poly III-V • Mechanical Stacking • Optical Spectrum Splitting • Concentrator Designs • QM Bandgap Engineering • IBSC Emcore h from 30% to 40% and beyond?

43. Process Development and Integration Laboratory (PDIL)

47. Tooling Standards

48. Integration of Deposition, Processing, and Characterization

49. Solar Market Standards

50. Universities Toledo Delaware Florida Arizona State Cal Tech RIT MIT Penn State Georgia Tech Stanford UC Davis CSM Colorado Colorado State Illinois Michigan South Florida Washington Working with the NCPV NREL T&E 1366 Technologies 3M AMONIX ADCO Advent Solar Applied Materials Applied Optical Sciences BASF BP Solar BRP Manufacturing Dow Chemical CaliSolar Dupont First Solar GT Solar Infoscitex Innovalight Konarka NanoSolar PrimeStar Solar Power Industries SolFocus Schott Solar Skyline Solar Spectrolab (Boeing) SunPower TruSeal Uni-Solar Incubator New Pre-Incubator Technology Pathway Partnerships PV Supply Chain Future Generation Program PV Manufacturing Initiative TPPs Ammonix Sunpower Soliant General Electric Konarka Nanosolar BP Solar Greenray Unisolar Dow Chemical Pre-Incubator Banyan Energy Crystal Solar ISET TiSol Ascent Solar Technologies EPIR Technologies MicroLink Devices 1366 Technologies Lightwave Power Vanguard Solar Semprius SpectraWatt Luna Innovations Incubator Calsiolar Sol Focus MicroLink Devices SoloPower Primestar AVA Solar Plextronics Innovalight Spire Solar Solexel 1366 Technologies Solasta Skyline Next Gen Wakonda Voxtel Solasta Solexant Soltaix Voxtel Ind. CRADAs Plextronics SiXtron Corning/Varian