Using the Land Use in Central Indiana (LUCI) Models in Transportation Planning

1. Using the Land Use in Central Indiana (LUCI) Models in Transportation Planning John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis

2. Land Use and Transportation • Land use and travel are interrelated • Land use affects travel behavior • Transportation system affects land use change • For planning, interested in both • Future urban development effect on travel, performance of planned improvements • Effect of planned improvements on urban development luci2 Urban Simulation Model

3. Family of Urban Land Use Simulation Models • LUCI (Land Use in Central Indiana) Model • LUCI/T Model • luci2 Urban Simulation Model • luci2 Central Indiana Implementation • luci2 Indiana Statewide Model luci2 Urban Simulation Model

4. LUCI (Land Use in Central Indiana) Model • Model simulating conversion of land to urban use in 44-county region in Central Indiana • Uses data on urban land derived from LandSat satellite imagery • Simulates development for 17,369 mile-square grid cells • Uses employment data for 320 ZIP code areas luci2 Urban Simulation Model

5. Central Indiana 2000 Percent Urban luci2 Urban Simulation Model

6. Predictors of Probability of Urban Development • Accessibility to employment (using distance) • Availability of water and sewer • Distance to interstates and 4-lane highways • Level of urban development in area • Urban development in prior period • ISTEP scores for school district luci2 Urban Simulation Model

7. Accessibility to Employment luci2 Urban Simulation Model

8. Simulating Development • Driven by forecast of population growth for entire region • Simulates in 5-year increments • Predicts probability of development and density for grid cells • Adjusts probabilities to accommodate forecast population growth luci2 Urban Simulation Model

9. Provision for Alternative Development Scenarios • LUCI (and its successors) provide for simulation of alternative development scenarios • Scenarios reflecting policy choices, including restrictions on development, utility expansion • Scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions regarding future development, including population growth, density and accessibility preferences luci2 Urban Simulation Model

10. Urban Development to 2040: Require Utilities vs. Current Trends luci2 Urban Simulation Model

11. LUCI/T Model • Developed for Central Indiana Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study • 9-county area surrounding Indianapolis • Uses travel times from travel demand model to calculate accessibility luci2 Urban Simulation Model

12. Comparison of Baseline and Maximum Change Alternatives • Simulations to 2025, 2040 • Baseline: existing and planned transportation improvements • Maximum change: 360º circumferential limited-access highway in outer part of area (outer belt) • Use of LUCI/T to forecast development for 2025 travel demand model luci2 Urban Simulation Model

13. Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Traffic Forecasts luci2 Urban Simulation Model

14. LUCI/T Baseline and Maximum Change Forecast of Urban Change to 2025 Baseline (Minimum Change) Maximum Change luci2 Urban Simulation Model

15. LUCI/T Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Forecasts luci2 Urban Simulation Model

16. Possible Reasons for Small Differences • In general, the periphery of significant urban development does not extend out to outer belt by 2025 (or 2040) • Households will find locations at urban periphery more accessible to employment than locations near outer belt • Major effect on travel times is to reduce times between locations near outer belt, but those have limited employment luci2 Urban Simulation Model

17. luci2 Urban Simulation Model • General-purpose urban simulation model • Can separately simulate residential and employment-related development • Can simulate employment growth luci2 Urban Simulation Model

18. luci2 as a General-Purpose Urban Simulation Model • Models can be implemented for different areas… • With different datasets… • Using regular or irregular simulation zones (including TAZs)… • Using distances or travel times… • For models of varying complexity • Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in luci2 luci2 Urban Simulation Model

19. luci2 Central Indiana Implementation • Implementation for 44-county Central Indiana region • Separately simulates residential and employment-related development • Simulates employment growth in 320 ZIP code areas luci2 Urban Simulation Model

20. luci2 Current Trends Scenario luci2 Urban Simulation Model

21. luci2 Indiana Statewide Model • Simulates residential and employment-related development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT travel demand model • Simulates local-service employment growth for TAZs • Uses travel times from travel demand model luci2 Urban Simulation Model

22. luci2 Indiana Statewide Model luci2 Urban Simulation Model

23. Features of luci2 Indiana Statewide Model • Uses travel times for INDOT travel demand model to calculate accessibilities • Primary driver of residential development is accessibility to employment change • Can use INDOT population and employment forecasts • Can forecast local service employment luci2 Urban Simulation Model

24. Integration of luci2 with INDOT Travel Demand Model • Simulation starts with 2000 travel times from the travel demand model • Simulates employment growth and urban development for 2005 • Results used by travel demand model to simulate 2005 travel, travel times • New travel times used by luci2 to simulate growth and development for 2010 • Process continues to 2030 luci2 Urban Simulation Model

25. More Information • LUCI Website:www.luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu • John Ottensmannjottensm@iupui.edu luci2 Urban Simulation Model