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Situation Appraisal Assessing and clarifying the current situation What's going on?

This situation appraisal focuses on the recent proposals by Defense Secretary Gates to scale back spending on costly weapons systems and prioritize irregular warfare. It analyzes the reasons behind these changes and identifies potential future problems and opportunities. The analysis includes a discussion of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with these new priorities.

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Situation Appraisal Assessing and clarifying the current situation What's going on?

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  1. Situation AppraisalAssessing and clarifying the current situationWhat's going on? • signal a turning point for the influence of senior congressional appropriators, • "You're not going to get two bites at the apple anymore," • Gates proposals scale back or eliminate spending programs for costly weapons systems

  2. Pentagon’s priorities“Gates 2.0” Missile Defense would be pared new bomber would be deferred F-22 fighter, for less capable but cheaper stuff, like the F-35 joint-strike fighter New emphasis on counter-insurgency 62% increase in unmanned drones Special forces, the tip of the spear in fighting terrorists (and training allies), will also get a boost in numbers.

  3. Problem AnalysisIdentifying problems and their causes Why did this happen? • Iraq and Afghanistan and the broader U.S. war on terrorism. • Gates, backed by the White House and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi • Signal big changes in the defense procurement process,

  4. Decision AnalysisGenerating various alternatives and selecting the optimal oneWhich course of action should we take? • Gates proposals scale back or eliminate spending programs for costly weapons systems, while placing greater emphasis on irregular warfare and care for wounded troops and their families.

  5. Possible FuturesOpportunity Analysis/ Problems • Smart Power • Talk to Enemies • Language, Culture • Use Economic Leverage • Alternate Crops • Leverage Dollars • Buy Intelligence, Leadership, Education

  6. Identifying potential problems and opportunities to be addressed in the future What lies ahead?More Smart Power ? • Unmanned Aircraft - How To Exploit • Hot Pursuit • Intel Gathering • Support Complex Objectives • Timeliness, Responsiveness

  7. Draw Backs of New Priorities Weaknesses – Politically Driven Lots of Pork - Base Redeployment Plan Int’l Scale - 700 Bases to Examine Complicated - Change to Irregular Warfare Short Term - Expensive to Change Political Will Not There

  8. Defense Budget Analysis

  9. Discussion Possible Futures Probable Futures "Political, Economic, Social, and Technological analysis.” SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats),

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