Global Automotive MarketGrowth Opportunity & Strategy Discussion With China OEMs July, 2009
Table of contents • Appendices • Deloitte Automotive Experience • Deloitte Team Resumes
About Deloitte Deloitte serves 90 percent of Fortune global 500 companies in the Auto industry Our Global Organization Over 160,000 professionals 670 offices in over 140 countries Serves nearly 750 companies with sales or assets in excess of $1 billion Our Automotive Practice • Over 5,000 professionals • Multi-Disciplinary Service Offerings: • M&A and Finance • Strategy and Operations • Information Technology • Human Capital • Tax Our Asia Practice • Over 3,300 professionals serving manufacturing clients • Extensive experience with auto dealerships and national and state governments as well as auto OEMs and Suppliers $27 B revenue 140+ countries Consulting: 30,000 professionals, $3.0B revenue Auto Practice 5,000+ professionals • Consulting • Audit • Tax • Financial Services • Strategy and Operations • Technology Integration • Enterprise Applications • Human Capital • Financial Analysis • Outsourcing
Today’s Discussion • Today’s global automotive market offers your company unprecedented opportunities to build its business and technology base, either organically or through acquisition. • Today’s market also offers unprecedented risks and challenges. • Our objective today is to share our insights and help you advance your thinking regarding the strategy and direction. • In particular, we will discuss: • Our view on the global automotive market today, and the implications for value creation in the automotive sector. • Approach to creating a growth strategy in the automotive supply market • Considerations and key questions to create an acquisition strategy • Our experience and lessons learned during complex acquisitions • Approach and analytic framework for developing a strong supplier network. • Path forward.
Current assessment of the global auto industry (cont.) Liquidity Crisis Re-Restructure the Industry Grow the “New” Industry • 2008-2009 • Major assembly and component capacity reductions in NAFTA and W. Europe • Re-sourcing to stronger suppliers • Government loans • Bankruptcy and restructurings • Liquidations • 2009-2010 • Capital availability improves • Large-scale asset sales • Strong balance sheets lead consolidation • New players and consolidators emerge, especially in emerging markets • 2010-2012 • Significant structural changes after first two phases • Newly-consolidated global OEMs and suppliers • New companies born from restructuring • Emergence of new technologies (powertrain, telematics, other) • Emergence of new business models After the near term liquidity crisis, we expect a major restructuring of the auto industry followed by a period of renewed growth
Our view of the future industry (cont.) Source: Automotive News Globally-integrated capabilities will be increasingly critical for suppliers to win and retain major platform business. +30% • Global platform volumes are increasing as a result of global product strategies, more flexible platform architectures, and more flexible production systems
Our view of the future industry (cont.) Light Vehicle Production Forecast Millions of Units/Share of Production 7.0% 18.8% 6.6% 17.9% 15.7% 10.6% 20.0% 15.5% 8.3% 15.6% 3.0% 3.1% 27.1% 30.7% Source: CSM Worldwide, April 2009 As the global auto market recovers, production is expected to shift from Japan, Korea, and Europe to the Americas and South Asia to align with regional demand; China growth remains strong
Our view of the future industry (cont.) Global Capacity Utilization 90% 120 80% South Asia South America North America Middle East/Africa Japan/Korea Greater China Europe Global Utilization % 100 70% 60% 80 50% 60 Global Straight Time Capacity (Millions) 40% Global Straight Utilization % 30% 40 20% 20 10% 0% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: CSM Worldwide (March 2009) From the 2009 low point of 60%, global capacity utilization is projected to steadily improve to 80% by 2013 even as capacity increases from about 93 million to 100 million vehicles
Our view of the future industry (cont.) Global Production by Global Segment +1.9%; (+0.8 million) +5.4%; (+1.4 million) 2009-2015 CAGR%(volume Change) +7.1%; (+5.4 million) 2009-2015 Growth Share +6.0%; (+6.8 million) +7.2%; (+2.8 million) +5.9%; (+2.8 million) Source: CSM Worldwide (March 2009) Nearly 80% of volume growth is expected to be driven by the B, C and D vehicle segments from 2009-2015
Our view of the future industry (cont.) • The industry structure will continue to evolve, becoming more globally balanced, with China-based OEMs and suppliers becoming more prominent • OEM restructuring will continue, resulting in major volume players based in six major markets (W. Europe, Japan, US, Korea, China, India) • Large players with excess capacity in mature markets will restructure to align capacities and brands with market share • Emerging market players will acquire more spin-offs by bigger OEMs and troubled suppliers as seeds to gain capabilities and market access • Several medium-sized and emerging market OEMs will consolidate to gain further scale and balanced market access • Vehicle production will continue to migrate to regional low cost locations for sale within local trade regions (EU, NAFTA, ultimately an Asian trade bloc) • OEMs and suppliers will adopt more local-region low cost sourcing to reduce their global supply chain risks and reduce their exposure to exchange rate fluctuations • OEM partnerships will increase with players from other industries (electronics, energy, etc.) and with each other to support new technologies and manage risk
The supplier market is also under stress – valuations are low Global Auto Supplier Performance (2000-2009 YTD) • Average Net Margin (%)1 • Dow Jones Auto Supplier Index 2 Source: (1) Company 10Q and other filings from Capital IQ, Average net margin (excluding one time items) of 3 largest public auto suppliers each in U.S., Japan, Europe; (2) DJIndexes.com (13/03/2009), Index used (DJUSAT) consists of 13 broad cap auto suppliers listed in the U.S., (53 Economist Intelligence Unit, “Crunch time for component makers” (11/02/2009)\ • Supplier loan covenant violations, insolvencies, bankruptcies and liquidations will continue during 2009 and 2010 due to a combination of global credit-tightening and overcapacity • A restructuring of suppliers and capacity is underway, creating opportunities for strategic and financial investors
Opportunities to create value • Traditional • Brake systems • Glass • Tires & rubber parts • Supplier Technology • Safety systems (Autoliv, TRW, Takata) • HVAC (Denso, Delphi, Behr) • Fuel management (Bosch, Delphi, Denso) • Mirrors (Gentex, Automobile Parts Manufacturer #1) • Sunroofs (Webasto, Inalfa) • Electronics (Bosch, Continental, Delphi, Denso, Continental) “Cleansed ECC client’s Logo” • Premium Brand • Entertainment systems (Bose, Boston Acoustics, Mark Levinson, Sirius XM) • Electronics (JCI HomeLink) • Brakes (Brembo) • Steering (ZF) • Struts (Bilstein, Tokico) • Labor Arbitrage • Acquired Company...ing(JCI, Lear, Automobile Parts Manufacturer #1) • Interior trim (Lear, Grupo Antolin) • Modular pre-assembly (Mobis, Visteon, Lear, CalsonicKansei) • Wiring harnesses (Delphi, Yazaki, Lear) • Outside Capacity • Vehicle assembly (Automobile Parts Manufacturer #1) • Stampings (Tower, Martinrea) • Machining (Linamar) • New Material Application • Plastic truck bed (Automobile Manufacturer #6/Continental Plastics) • Plastic fuel tank (Automobile Manufacturer/Inergy) In the past few decades different factors have driven OEM / supplier relationships
Opportunities to create value (cont.) Technology or Features • Growing Customers • Aisin Seiki • Denso • Hitachi • Jtekt • Mando • Mobis • Takata • Toyo Seiko • Automobile Manufacturer #6 • De-integration/ Outsourcing • American Axle • Continental • Faurecia • Johnson Controls • Lear • Linamar • Automobile Parts Manufacturer #1 • AWD • American Axle • BorgWarner • Automobile Parts Manufacturer #1 • ZF • Diesel • Bosch • Continental • Delphi • Denso • Safety • Autoliv • Takata • TRW • Electronics • Aisin Seiki • Bosch • Continental • Johnson Controls • Communications Equipment Manufacturer #4 • Valeo • ABS/Ride Control • Aisin Seiki • Bosch • Continental • Delphi • TRW • Material Substitution • Alcoa Automotive • GKN • Inergy • Automobile Parts Manufacturer #1 • Superior Industries Over the past 10-15 years, rapid supplier growth has resulted from one or more of four primary drivers:
Distressed supplier market • Europe • Edscha • Eybl International • Geiger Technologies • Goertz + Schiele Holding • Henniges Automotive • Karmann • Kittel Supplier • Sakti Germany • Stankiewicz GmbH/Gimotive • TMD Friction Holding • tedrive Holding • Wagon Automotive The global recession, while a great challenge to all players in the auto industry, presents a unique opportunity for companies with strong balance sheets and carefully-considered growth strategies. • Despite growth and concentration, today an unprecedented number of global automotive suppliers face financial distress. • Recent bankruptcies in North America and Europe include: North America • Fluid Routing Solutions • Foamex • Grede Foundries • Hayes Lemmerz • Intermet • J. L. French • Key Plastics • Lear • Metaldyne • Noble International • Plastech • Visteon
Future sources of supplier growth and value Expanding global footprint Tier 1 suppliers continue to develop more extensive and integrated global networks to better compete for and serve global vehicle platform programs. As new powertrain, safety, telematics, and other technologies emerge, winning suppliers take the lead in mastering the new product development, production, distribution, and support capabilities. Mastering new technologies Successful suppliers adapt to the shifting global OEM structure, aligning with growing OEM networks while maintaining customer base diversity and a balance of power that allows pricing flexibility. Aligning with evolving industry structure To meet the investment requirements of new technologies and manage risks, top suppliers will create new networks of alliances and JV’s, including non-traditional partners, and adopt virtual company paradigms. Creating new business models Growing through acquisition and consolidation Suppliers with strong balance sheets take advantage of weaker players and cheap asset valuations to grow in value-creating segments. With the change in structure and dynamics of the global auto industry, the future will see different paths of supplier growth and value creation.
Opportunities for growth in the supplier market • The changes in the industry plus the stress on suppliers has created a wealth of investment opportunities in N. American and Europe. • There is obviously risk, however, as many suppliers will not survive and many assets, despite low market prices, will not be utilized. • The following pages discuss some of the analyses that Deloitte has done to help clients assess opportunities and risks in the N. American and European supplier markets.
N. American supplier market Rating Scale 0 50 75 100 Healthy Unhealthy At Risk Deloitte/CSM Supplier Health Rating OEMExposure FinancialStrength StrategicPositioning Revenue concentration with high-risk OEMs/platforms and customer diversification Liquidity, debt and cash flow Global coverage, company and product diversification, and capabilities Financial Metrics Strategic Metrics Exposure Metrics • Altman Z-score (bankruptcy risk) • Debt • Debt Maturities • Cash Burn Rate • Global Presence • Company Diversification • Product Diversification • Breadth of Capabilities • Unique or Proprietary Technology • Customer Diversification • High-risk OEM Exposure • High-risk platform exposure • Short-term • Longer-term Deloitte and CSM Worldwide have developed a Supplier Health Rating which assesses overall financial strength and stability, strategic positioning, and exposure to high-risk OEMs and platforms
Some product families will see greater consolidation Product Family Key Insights Powertrain • Significant investment and new players in hybrid/electric systems, but volume growth will be slow • Rapid growth in relatively inexpensive fuel efficiency actions (e.g., direct injection with turbo) • Relatively weak, fragmented segment with significant consolidation likely • Average Health Rating: 46 HHI*: 4.2 Consolidation Potential: High Chassis / Mechanical • Fuel economy regulations will drive migration to electrically-driven components (e.g., electric steering, brake-by-wire) and impact current sourcing patterns • Many traditional suppliers (frames, casting, forgings, axles) are struggling with excess capacity • Average Health Rating: 48 HHI: 4.5 Consolidation potential: High Exteriors • May see further consolidation in lighting • OEMs are moving away from exterior modules (e.g., doors), forcing a restructuring of this business • Many weak and few strong players in this segment • Average Health Rating: 46 HHI: 6.7 Consolidation Potential: Medium Interiors • Significant excess capacity will drive additional consolidation – weaker players are extremely vulnerable • OEMs are unbundling interiors, reducing supplier value add and increasing exposure to commodity prices • Average Health Rating: 53 HHI: 5.5 Consolidation potential: High Climate Control • Segment dominated by major global suppliers – Asian players are generally strongest • Some additional consolidation likely • Average Health Rating: 55 HHI: 15.5 Consolidation Potential: Medium Electronics /Electrical • Very diverse and globalized segment for both development and production with more strong players • Growth in differentiating technologies will continue despite economic downturn • Segment will continue to require investment to remain competitive • Average Health Rating: 53 HHI: 7.1 Consolidation Potential: Medium * HHI is the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, a market concentration metric
The OEMs will drive much of the consolidation OEMs are assessing the health of their suppliers and have stated they will force significant consolidation (e.g., Automobile Manufacturer #5 from current 1,600 production suppliers to 750 globally) OEM Pressure • Surviving Tier 1 suppliers must have: • A “best cost”, global production footprint which supports customers’ platform needs locally • Globally-deployed R&D and customer support centers • Strong product technology and system integration capabilities • Financial stability Potential Outcomes A B A C B C
Product Family Example: exhaust manifold Exhaust manifolds is one of 17 specific component groups within powertrain • Exhaust Manifold Summary • D3 are heavily weighted towards cast manifolds (90%) • Asian and European OEMs use about 90% fabricated manifolds • Wescast has nearly 50% of the cast market in N.A. – a very high share • Technology developments could alter future industry sourcing patterns • C “Cleansed ECC Client”
Top European suppliers ranked by revenue Source: Automotive News
Key issues facing European supplier market • Climate Change • Electrification of the Automobile (zero tailpipe emissions): • Vehicle manufacturers will continue to work with battery suppliers on issues like energy density, durability and recharge times. • Alternative Fuels: • Issues like sustainable fuel production, quality and the development of comprehensive re-fuelling infrastructure remain key to encouraging wider take-up of these vehicles. • Sustainable Mobility / Regulatory Framework (especially the regulation CARS 21) • Reduce waste / recyclable parts • In the manufacture of vehicles, sustainable mobility means finding more sustainable materials in vehicle manufacturing, improving logistics in the supply chain to cut unnecessary waste, and designing more parts to be recycled at the end of their lives rather than being sent to landfill. • Reducing man-made CO2 emissions / CO2 - based taxes • The automotive industry is actively working to reduce CO2 emissions from cars and commercial vehicles in-use, but also from its production sites, logistics and transport operations. Tax incentives encourage motorists to consider the environmental impact of vehicle choices and to use vehicles responsibly. • Road Safety • Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS): • Further technological progress with complementary Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) measures, improved driver training, better road design and enforcement of existing traffic regulations promise safer roads for all. • Competitiveness • Deliver quality products around the globe: • Opportunities to develop trade abroad should be pursued and manufacturers support steps to remove barriers such as unreasonable import tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTB). • Integrated Innovations • In a world of ever-increasing globalization and international competition, the automotive industry will work to keep costs down, to retain R&D facilities and production in Europe, and to safeguard the quality of its products.
The Europe supplier market is also restructuring Strategic buyers are reviewing supplier asset opportunities in Europe, both for technology acquisition and for market entry / expansion. • There has been a wave of insolvencies. • Over the past nine months in Germany alone, more than 70 automotive suppliers and suppliers with plants there have filed for insolvency. • Many of the troubled or insolvent suppliers have strong technology positions. • A wide variety of assets are for sale, from healthy companies focusing on core operations and from troubled or insolvent companies who are reorganizing. • In Germany, for example, over 20 insolvent suppliers are currently ‘for sale” (chart at right).
Strategic Questions The following discussion centers on growth in the auto parts business. Many of the same considerations apply, however, to planning for growth in the OEM / finished vehicle markets. • Creating a growth strategy for the auto business involves answering these fundamental questions: • What is your company’s strategic intent? • Where to compete? • How to compete? • When and how to invest? • How to align existing relationships?
Strategic Question #1: Strategic Intent? What is your objective for your parts business? How will the investment create value for the organization? Different strategic objectives will lead to different answers to the following strategic questions. It is important that your management have clarity on the objectives at the start, and that the objectives are focused.
Strategic Question #2: Where to Compete? Where to Compete Product Family Technology Strategic Intent Geography OEM Market “Cleansed ECC logo” -- CHINA --
Strategic Question #2: Where to Compete? (cont.) Which product families / systems? Which technologies (product and production?) • Determining which product family will include consideration of: • Market growth • Impacts of technology change • Strength of current suppliers • Potential to acquire assets at favorable prices • Your existing capabilities and JV relationships • Strategic intent
Strategic Question #2: Where to Compete? (cont.) Which OEMs / customers? In which geographies?
Strategic Question #3: How to Compete? • Technology Disruption • R&D leadership • M&A and network development • Strategic commitment and investment • Assembly know-how • Efficient partnering • Local production • Strong innovation & technology base • Engineering integration capabilities • R&D capabilities • Multiple core competencies Increasing capabilities required • Cost leadership • High quality • Efficient manufacturing • Short “time-to-market" Basic Component Supplier Diversified Component Supplier System Supplier Module Supplier Different bases of competition
Strategic Question #4: When to Invest? And How? Module supplier Increasing Capabilities Increasing Investment System supplier Highest Value-add and risk Diversified component supplier Integration Opportunities Basic component supplier Extend/defend core business Future / emerging capabilities New capabilities and relationships Existing capability platform and relationships Investment Decisions Level Strategic Options Learning / Signaling Full Commitment Mechanism Organic Technology Acquisitions Joint Venture Acquisition Priorities
Overarching Objective – Strategic Advantage Broader Value Focused, Tactical Value Question #5: How to Align Existing Relationships? Alliance Rationale • Increasing Value • Increasing Commitment • Increasing Investment and Risk Form aPowerfulCompetitive Force to dominate target markets Increase Return from Operations ShareFinancialRisks Participate in the development of new and emerging technology Participate in attractive markets and brands Manufacture more effectively and efficiently Limited value / no strategic fit Consolidate and Gain Protectable Competitive Advantage From Existing Partners and Alliances
Growth strategy development External Analysis Synthesis Action China OEM / Customer Market Global Strategic Intent M&A Plan Supplier Market Opportunities Internal Development Plan Product Segments Challenges / Risks Organization Change Plan Technologies Risk Management Plan Regulatory / Externalities Scenario Analysis Internal Analysis Capabilities China Global Strategy Document Implementation Roadmap Relationships / Network Financials / Business Case Performance Project Management People and Change Management
Analytic Framework for Strategy Development External Analysis • OEM / Customer Market • Segmentation and prioritization – growth, health, profit potential • Sales & service models • Channels • Location footprint / proximity requirements • Competitors and ‘white space’ • Customer strength / pricing power • OEM attractiveness • Aftermarket attractiveness • Target customers • Product Segments • Segment trends • Price, volume, market size, and growth rate • Product and production technology • Maturing / life cycle analysis • Capacity / demand balance • Competitor map / concentration analysis • Market capability requirements • Scale requirements / economies of scale • Asset base requirements • Service requirements • Product development approach and resourcing China Global • Technologies • Product and production technologies • Emerging technology assessment • Potential / risks • Relationship to different externality scenarios (energy, environment, safety) • Technology maturity map • Supplier / technology map • Opportunity map • Supplier Market • Positioning – strengths and weaknesses • Product and product technology • Production capacity and capability • Cost structure • Asset base • Financials • Sales and distribution • Management / people • Brand • Customer networks and relationships • Strategic intent / investment direction • Regulatory and Externalities • Regional analysis • Current regulations and trends • Impact on OEM / customer market • Impact on Supplier market • Impact on Product segments • Impact on Technology development • Global trends: energy cost, consumer behavior Note: these analyses should be done with two ‘views’, China market and global market (depending on your intent) M&A / JV View Competitor View
Analytic Framework for Strategy Development Internal Analysis • Capabilities • Product R&D and technology • Production R&D and technology • Supply chain • Sales and service, complex customer relationship management • Information systems and controls, governance • Global experience • Supplier network (tier 2-n) • M&A experience, JV management • Management • People • Performance • Understand your current performance and performance management, identify gaps versus strategic objectives. • Product technology • Production technology • Production cost and quality • Overall cost • Customer satisfaction • Management systems and controls • Financial performance – margins, operating income, net income, ROCE, ROA, etc. • Performance management systems China Global • Relationship / Network • Assessment of current JV’s / other relationships • Competitive position: product, quality, cost, service, customer / OEM relationships • Technology capabilities • Geographic footprint • Strategic importance • Portfolio analysis • Product / market / alliance – JV map • Existing coverage • Precluded areas (contractual / non-competes) • Open areas Note: Internal Analysis also includes assessing leadership alignment on Strategic Intent, and on commitment and willingness to invest and change. Note: these analyses should be done with two ‘views’, China market and global market (depending on your intent), particularly the Capabilities analysis.
Analytic Framework for Strategy Development Synthesis • Strategic Intent • Clear statement of your strategic objectives for the parts business • Market positioning • Relationship to your OEM business • Financial returns • Strategy Document • Strategic intent • Target markets – customer, geographic • Target product segments • Portfolio • Investment requirements and priorities • Capabilities • Technologies • Production capacity • Investments for strategic options (vs. full scale commitment) • Targets / expected outcomes • Organization and accountability • Opportunities • Product segments • Technologies • Customers / segments • Geographic markets • Supplier market – acquisition / partnering • Fit with strategic intent • Challenges / Risks • Dependencies on externalities • Capability gaps / dependencies • Competitor response • Impact on existing network / business • Business Case • Sales and market share projections • Investment and resource details • Financial targets and projections • Tax impacts • Qualitative targets and benefits • Risks • Contingencies • Scenario Analysis • Create hypotheses, evaluate under different environmental scenarios, e.g.: • Energy / oil cost scenarios • Environmental regulation scenarios • Powertrain technology disruption scenarios • Market access disruption scenarios • Industry reconfiguration scenarios
Analytic Framework for Strategy Development Action • M&A Plan • Objectives and priorities • Secure advisors • Target screening • Deal parameters and negotiations • Due diligence • Integration • Implementation Roadmap • Graphical sequence of all major activities • Detailed workplans • Resource plans • Responsibilities • Time line and dependencies • Milestones and measurement points • Execution threads: • Project management • Change management and communication • Internal Development Plan • Investments • Assets • Technology / R&D • People and management – recruiting, training, etc. • Capabilities • Organization Plan • Targeted end state • Change plan • Communication plan • Roles and responsibilities • Risk Management Plan • Major / identified risks • Mitigation plan • Measurement and reporting • Responsibility matrix
Synthesis Scenario Analysis Michael E. Raynor Deloitte Consulting LLP Distinguished Fellow, Deloitte Research • No company can make major investments in every possible technology or future direction. • Investment strategy: invest to create a portfolio of capabilities and options. • Make selected major commitments now. • Invest in a more limited, focused way in other areas to create and maintain options.
Scenario Analysis: basic steps Key Idea – Invest to Create Options • Anticipate • Identify drivers of change • Define the range of possiblefutures • Determine which are truly plausible • Formulate • Develop an optimal strategyfor each scenario • Compare optimal strategies todefine “core” and “contingent”elements • Operate • Execute the core strategy • Monitor the environment • Exercise or abandon options as appropriate • Accumulate • Acquire those capabilities needed to implement the core strategy • Take options on capabilities needed for contingent strategies
Electric Advances Each vertex could bea plausible scenario Current C Limits, Growth Incentives Regulation Technology Gasoline Advances New Carbon Limits Macro-economy Continued Recession / Slow Growth Recovery / Return to Higher Growth Example scenario analysis framework • How to create capability options? • Partial / seed investment • Pilot projects • JV’s • Academic R&D • Development rights • Licensing – inbound and outbound • Etc. Scenario analysis can help determine where to invest (e.g., product family / technology) and how to invest (e.g., early commitment / ‘big bet’ versus creating options).
Example (from Deloitte work with another OEM) 1. Determine external factors shaping the industry’s future. 2. Define a manageable number of planning scenarios 3. Assess the impact of each scenario on different technology / product segment options. Develop investment strategy: commitments, options, defer / exit.
Assessing emerging technologies External Analysis / Synthesis Fit with strategic intent and current capabilities • As noted, this is a time of disruptive technology changes in automotive. The future path of development is uncertain. • Assessing different technologies requires analysis to answer several different questions…