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The Australian Approach to the Production Based Measurement of GDP

The Australian Approach to the Production Based Measurement of GDP. Ian Ewing Deputy Australian Statistician Macroeconomics and Integration Group June 2009. Topics. The statistics ABS produces What the statistics are used for The methods used to compile them The data sources used

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The Australian Approach to the Production Based Measurement of GDP

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  1. The Australian Approach to the Production Based Measurement of GDP Ian Ewing Deputy Australian Statistician Macroeconomics and Integration Group June 2009

  2. Topics • The statistics ABS produces • What the statistics are used for • The methods used to compile them • The data sources used • The resources required • Challenges for the future

  3. Statistics Produced:Quarterly Industry Value Added

  4. Statistics Produced: Gross State Product by Industry

  5. Statistics Produced:GDP(P) Time-series

  6. Uses of Statistics • Industry contribution to growth • Measuring structural change • Measuring productivity • Informing and evaluating public policy • Economic and business analysis • Forecasting

  7. Uses of Statistics:Industry Contributions Growth

  8. Uses of Statistics:Structural Change in the Economy

  9. Uses of Statistics:Measuring productivity

  10. Uses of Statistics:Informing Policy Change in Australian sectoral growth rates (percentage points lost or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 parts per million CO2 equivalent scenario, compared to no mitigation, 2013-2100. From the Garnaut review Figure 11.5.

  11. Uses of Statistics:Economic and Business Analysis

  12. Uses of Statistics:Economic Forecasting Table 3.2: Domestic economy forecasts(a)

  13. Uses of Statistics:Policy Evaluation

  14. Methods Used • The SNA Framework • Three estimates: Income, Expenditure, Production • Supply & Use Tables • Deflation (Chain Volume Indexes) • Agriculture • Owner Occupied Housing • International Comparability • Seasonal Adjustment • Financial Intermediation Services

  15. Methods Used:The SNA Accounting Framework

  16. Methods Used:Three ways to measure GDP • GDP(P): The production measure that calculates the total value added by producer enterprises in the economy: i.e. the difference between the value of outputs produced and the value of goods and services consumed in production (intermediate inputs) adjusted for taxes and subsides on those products. • GDP(E): The expenditure based measure which calculates what government and households spend on the acquisition of those products. • GDP(I): The income based measure which sums the earnings which households derive from providing labour and capital services for use in generating production.

  17. Methods Used:Three ways to measure GDP

  18. Methods Used:Supply and Use Tables Table 1. Supply of products at basic prices and purchasers’ prices

  19. Methods Used:Supply and Use Tables Table 2. Use of products at purchasers’ prices

  20. Methods Used:Supply and Use Tables • Output – Intermediate Use + margins + taxes on products – subsidies = Compensation of Employees + gross operating surplus + other taxes on production – subsidies on productionGDP(P) = GDP(I) • Supply=UseOutput + margins + Imports + Taxes on products – Subsidies on products = Intermediate Use + Domestic Final Use + Inventory changes + exports • Output – Intermediate Use + Margins + net taxes on products = Domestic Final Use + Inventory Change + Exports – ImportsGDP(P) = GDP(E)

  21. Methods Used:Supply and Use Tables • Reconciles the three measures of GDP • Provides a systematic framework for identifying sources of error

  22. Methods Used • Deflation (Chain Volume Indexes) • Agriculture • Owner Occupied Housing • Financial Intermediation Services • International Comparability • Seasonal Adjustment

  23. Data Sources • Classification • Business Register • Administrative data sources • Business Surveys • Price Indexes

  24. Data Sources

  25. Data Sources:Classification • Industry: ANZSIC (ISIC Rev3) • Commodity: ANZSPC (CPC) • ANZSISC (ISISC)

  26. Data Sources:Business Register • Built on Tax Administration • Unduplicated • Comprehensive • “Profiling” largest/complex firms • Core Classifications • Births/deaths • Size Measures

  27. Data Sources • Administrative data sources • Business Surveys • Prices Indexes

  28. Resources • Compiling Macro Economic Statistics: 220 Person Years • Compiling National Accounts: 64 Person Years • Compiling Annual and Quarterly GDP: 43 Person Years • Compiling GDP(P): 11 Person Years • Infrastructure and Source Data: 292 Person Years

  29. Resources

  30. Challenges for the Future • Scope Issues • New Industry Classification • Updated System of National Accounts (SNA 08) • Service Industry Output Measurement • Global Financial Crisis • Maintaining Professional Capability

  31. Challenges for the Future:Scope Issues

  32. Challenges for the Future:New Industry Classification

  33. Challenges for the Future: • Updated System of National Accounts (SNA 08) • Service Industry Output Measurement • Global Financial Crisis • Maintaining Professional Capability

  34. Thank you &Questions

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