Wind in the uk a growing market
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Wind in the UK – a growing market. Dr Gordon Edge Director of Policy RenewableUK. A word on who we are…. Wind starting to deliver. 2004: 250MW 2005: 440MW 2006: 630MW 2007: 430MW 2008: 867MW 2009: 1,077MW. Operational wind farms. Ttt H. Ttt H H H H H H H H L K. 4,491MW

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Wind in the uk a growing market

Wind in the UK – a growing market

Dr Gordon Edge

Director of Policy

RenewableUK



Wind starting to deliver
Wind starting to deliver

2004: 250MW 2005: 440MW 2006: 630MW 2007: 430MW2008: 867MW2009: 1,077MW


Operational wind farms
Operational wind farms

Ttt

H

Ttt

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L

K

  • 4,491MW

    • 3,450MW onshore

    • 1,041MW offshore

  • 2,872 turbines


Wind farms under construction
Wind farms under construction

H

  • 1,656MW

    • 537MW onshore

    • 1,119MW offshore

  • 614 turbines

H

H

H

H

H


Wind farms consented
Wind farms consented

  • Considerable capacity consented but yet to start construction

    • 4,357MW onshore wind

    • 3,127MW offshore wind

  • 13,600MW in total built, building or ready to build


The onshore planning logjam
The onshore planning logjam

  • ~8,000MW of onshore capacity is built, building or ready to build

  • However, nearly 20,000MW has entered the planning system since 2002

  • ~2,500MW rejected

  • 7,700MW being held up in planning

  • Aviation issues a key problem


Moving ahead onshore
Moving ahead onshore

  • Projects consented may still have barriers to delivery

    • Planning conditions may need to be discharged

    • Grid connections may still be awaited

    • Finance may not be in place

  • Nonetheless, we anticipate delivery of ~1GW/year for the next five years

    • 2010 may see a dip in onshore delivery over 2009, mostly due to finance issues


The uk has a healthy offshore pipeline

32 GW

The UK has a healthy offshore pipeline

47GW of leases in total…

20,000

Round

3

…But when are they delivered?

Wind Farm Capacity (MW)

10.000

STW

6.4 GW

Extensions

~ 1 – 2 GW

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Installed

Under

Construction/

Contracted

Consented

Planned


Near term delivery quite clear
Near term delivery quite clear

Source: UK Offshore Wind: Staying on Track, report by Garrad Hassan for BWEA, June 2009


Possible offshore delivery post 2015
Possible offshore delivery post-2015

Crown Estate

20% attrition, some projects delayed by 1 year

30% attrition, most projects delayed by 2 years

  • Installed in 2020:

  • High: 45GW; Medium: 24GW; Low: 14GW


Some uncertainties
Some uncertainties

  • The Election

    • Unclear what effect a change of Government might have

    • May be changes in support mechanism, planning

  • Implementation of ‘Connect & Manage’

    • Implications for connection, particularly in Scotland

  • Implementation of the OFTO regime

    • Affects offshore projects particularly around 2013-16

  • Charging for transmission services

    • Potential move to per MWh charges instead of per kW per year


Wind in the uk a growing market
So…

  • Despite some uncertainty, the UK is moving to a market of:

    • ~1GW/year onshore, 2010-20

    • ~1GW/year offshore, 2010-15

    • ~3-4GW/year offshore, 2015-20