Exploiting Modelling to Improve Decision-making

1. Exploiting Modelling to Improve Decision-making A presentation to ISMOR 2009 Laura Bryan

2. Introduction The need for decision support in TLCM What can we do to exploit OA better? The TRAiDE™ approach Why use the TRAiDE™ approach? Combat air capability example Some example outputs Summary Questions Contents

3. MOD’s AOF definition: “Through Life Capability Management translates the requirements of Defence policy into an approved programme that delivers the required capabilities, through-life, across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoD)” OA models and toolsets support decision makers at all levels The need for decision support in TLCM From www.aof.mod.uk

4. The need for decision support in TLCM National Capability Trade Offs Cross Capability Trade Offs CMG Capability Trade Offs Equipment / LoD Trade Offs Budget & Aspirations LoDs Reality and Costs Defence Policy and National requirements Capability Change Plan Capability Management Plan Through Life Management Plan

5. The need for decision support in TLCM MOD budgets are constrained Lots of data and information exists & is generated at each level Capability must be managed against changing threats Many OA models and studies address specific questions. Why not bring these together under a consistent & common framework that supports DMs at different levels…? There are many factors to take into account Decisions and trades need to be made over time at different levels The trade space is not discrete

6. The information manager enables us to capture and store data using a consistent structure Consistent and intuitive visualisations bring together the information to support the decision-making process The information manager is at the core of TRAiDE™, ensuring that all models & tools use a single source of data (capture once, use many times) External models & software interface with the information manager All elements are supported by suitably trained people using robust processes and techniques The TRAiDE™ approach

7. Trades can be made using a common informed dataset Ensures decisions can be made with high level coherence Ensures decisions are made in context, across boundaries Ensures consistent use of data within the various models and tools Collect data once, use many times Brings together different tools & models within a coherent framework Don’t need to re-invent Get a more-holistic view of the issues & support ‘higher-level’ decisions Provides consistent visualisations at different levels in the hierarchy Can produce different views for different audiences using the same data Inclusivity Bring together data, knowledge and stakeholders (including industry) The method is re-usable and repeatable The method is scalable – can be aggregated / dis-aggregated Why use the TRAiDE™ approach

8. The project: Examine the benefits of a joint (MOD & BAE Systems) approach to TLCM Understand the impact of decisions on fast jet capability and sustainability Developed a decision support toolset to enable cost, FE@R and industrial trade-off analysis across key DLoDs Modelled the key activities required to deliver and support fast jet capability over the next 30 years for current and future fast jet fleets Quantified the relationships between key factors Combat Air Capability example

9. OA models and toolsets Combat air capability Requirements Industrial capacity Project & programme risks Fast Jet FE@R Generation Option comparison DLoD demands FJ Costs Options & scenarios Data & assumptions User interfaces Combat Air Capability example Capability models Industrial models Risk tools Fast Jet Activity models DLoD models Cost models

10. Data & assumptions Requirements MDAL User interface (information manager) Cost Models Capability Profiles Capability Models Risk Profiles DLoD Models FE@R Profiles Industry Models Risk Models Cost Profiles Activity Models Option comparison OA models & tools The Combat Air TRAiDE™ approach

11. Some example outputs

12. TRAiDE™ is a framework, not a tool Combines people, processes, techniques and information management TRAiDE™ is inclusive Allows existing tools, models and data to be integrated It can support trade-offs and capability management at different levels involving different stakeholders It offers a way of improving our use of OA by bringing together discrete studies & toolsets in a coherent way TRAiDE™ has been used successfully by BAE Systems on a number of studies / engagements In support of MOD In support of BAE Systems To support joint MOD & BAE Systems studies Summary

13. Questions?