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NOAA Tropical Cyclone Research Activities Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML HRD Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty. • Improve forecasts and increase confidence to enhance mitigation and preparedness decisions. • Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports. • Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations.
NOAA HFIP Metrics for Success • Metric #1: Reduce track error by 50% at all lead times (100 nm to 50 nm at 48 h) • Metric #2: Reduce intensity error by 50% at all lead times (14 kt to 7 kt at 48 h) • Metric #3: Increase Probability of Detection and reduce False Alarm Ratio of rapid intensification (> 30 kt/24 h) events • Metric #4: Extend the lead time to 7 days.
NOAA Detailed Research Activity Combined Man-Years vs. Detailed Research AOC, AOML, NESDIS, UAS, ESRL, JHT EMC, AOML, ESRL, JHT, NESDIS AOML, NESDIS Intensity / Structure Track Genesis QPF Surge Model Development Observations [Seasonal]
Intensity Change Stat Aids Genesis QPF Track Fcst Storm Surge Observations Size/Structure SST Gradients Model Res vs Ensembles Fcst Efficiency Wind Analysis Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs Combined Man-Years Mapped to NHC / CPHC Priorities