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TBM Costing Lessons from Recent ITER Activities

TBM Costing Lessons from Recent ITER Activities. Scott Willms Los Alamos National Laboratory Presented at INL August 10, 2005. Outline of preparing ITER TEP scope/schedule/budget. Establish mission - functional specifications Establish key quantitative design specifications

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TBM Costing Lessons from Recent ITER Activities

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  1. TBM Costing Lessons from Recent ITER Activities Scott Willms Los Alamos National Laboratory Presented at INL August 10, 2005

  2. Outline of preparing ITER TEP scope/schedule/budget • Establish mission- functional specifications • Establish key quantitative design specifications • Assess the state-of-the-art-Make technology choices • Consider the phases of the project-conceptual, preliminary, final • Identify key interfaces • Establish basic organization • Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure) • Completeness-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package • Establish WBS • Costing • Schedule • Expenditure profile • Cost savings • Risk • Risk results in cost • Finalize package Note that this is iterative process

  3. Establish mission- functional specifications • What is the qualitative purpose of the system? • Example: TEP must • Recover hydrogen isotopes from impurities such as water and methane • Deliver purified, mixed hydrogen isotopes to the ISS • Dispose of non-tritium species • Elements of TBM mission statement • Fundamental data collection? • Testing of interfaces? • Integrated operation?

  4. Establish key quantitative design specifications • The major design specifications can be a relatively short list • TEP Design Specifications • Lose no more than 1 Ci/day to the Vent Detritiation System • Overall decontamination factor (DF) of 108 • Process gas from 450 s and 3000 s pulses at a flowrate of 150 SLPM (253 Pam3/s).

  5. Assess the state-of-the-art/make technology choices Caper-FzK PMR-US JFCU-JA(US)

  6. Prepare key system drawings -TEP process flow diagram (preliminary design)

  7. TEP- Process and instrumentation diagram (preliminary design)

  8. Mechanical drawings (final design)

  9. Identify key interfaces • Who sends something to us and what are they sending? • Who are we sending stuff to and what are we sending? • TEP examples • TEP accepts gas from the torus vacuum pumping system • TEP sends pure DT to the isotope separation system and to the vent detritiation system • Tritium plant sends material to fueling, etc.

  10. Establish basic organization • What are the key roles and responsibilities? • Who needs to be involved? • TEP examples • The ITER International Team is • The design authority (adopting specifications) • Change control • Responsible for the overall success of the project • A technical team is responsible for • Technical expertise • Recommend design and design changes (specifications) • Interfacing with other systems • A fabrication entity (e.g. industry) is responsible for • Fabrication to design specifications

  11. Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure)

  12. Work Elements-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package • Overhead costs • Detailed design (limited to manufacturing design) • Purchasing/fabrication • Factory testing • Packaging and transportation • On-site installation/assembly • On-site testing • Documentation and QA • Technical supervision • Recommended spares • AFI (Allowance for Indeterminants)

  13. Work Elements-Categories not explicitly included in the TEP procurement package • Contingency • Supporting R&D • Detailed design (pre-manufacturing design) • Engineering follow: Preparing, awarding and following procurement package contracts • Installation • Design basis documentation • Design integration • Cost savings • Special categories: For TEP FMEA results need to be incorporated into design

  14. Establish WBS

  15. Costing

  16. Cost estimation methods and sources • Conceptual/preliminary design • Scale from existing experience • Compare to similar estimates from others • Estimate is rough and has large contingency • Preliminary/final design • Full bottoms up estimate • Industrial bids • Estimate is more accurate and has lower contingency

  17. Schedule

  18. When developing schedule consider • Consider if this is a “first-of-a-kind” or “nth-of-a-kind” system • Consider all elements in WBS • But also consider many other things that take time • Staffing • training program completion • completion of operator training (five shifts) • readiness reviews • corrective actions • nuclear facility license completion • tritium inventory management systems • Calibrations • control system tuning • as-built performance characterization • as-built drawing completion • operating procedure preparation, shake-down, revision and publication • alarm/interlock testing • rework/replacement of systems • incorporation of Tritium Plant control into overall ITER control system • etc.

  19. Example TEP procurement schedule

  20. Expenditure profile • With cost and schedule done, an expenditure profile can be prepared

  21. Cost savings • There may be opportunities to save cost by • Revising specifications • Leveraging with existing work • Moving the work elsewhere (e.g. to the operations phase)

  22. Risk • Every project has risk (i.e. likelihood that project goals will not be met on schedule and budget) • There is relatively straight forward risk • Rain • Key individuals quit • Supplier delays • Contingency for n-th of a kind construction is 5-10% • And there is more complicated risk • Various possibilities • We tried this once on a lab bench and it worked • We’re pretty sure this technology will work • We’re sure we can make it work, but we don’t yet know how • We have no idea how to make this work • Contingency for first-of-a-kind work might typically run 20-50% • (Apollo contingency ended up being 100%)

  23. Risk results in cost. Risk can be managed • List technologies and processes needed for the project • Identify the risk associated with each step • Where risk is unacceptable it must be mitigated by: • Perform R&D (adds cost) • Design around it (adds cost if redesign is needed) • Add contingency (adds cost) • In this way risk is “quantified” as additional cost to the project • Note: Fundamental R&D drives to discovery. Project R&D drives to minimizing risk so that project goals are met. While both are called R&D, the two types of R&D are quite different.

  24. Summary of preparing ITER TEP scope/schedule/budget • Establish mission- functional specifications • Establish key quantitative design specifications • Assess the state-of-the-art-Make technology choices • Consider the phases of the project-conceptual, preliminary, final • Identify key interfaces • Establish basic organization • Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure) • Completeness-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package • Establish WBS • Costing • Schedule • Expenditure profile • Cost savings • Risk • Risk results in cost • Finalize package Note that this is iterative process

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