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Global Shipping Markets Robin Masters SSY USA

Global Shipping Markets Robin Masters SSY USA. transatlantic round voyage time charter earnings. petcoke freight rates - panamax US Gulf/Europe. contributors to volatility in 2004. limited coking coal/coke supplies fluctuating European demand for backhaul coal

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Global Shipping Markets Robin Masters SSY USA

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  1. Global Shipping Markets Robin Masters SSY USA

  2. transatlantic round voyage time charter earnings

  3. petcoke freight rates - panamax US Gulf/Europe

  4. contributors to volatility in 2004 • limited coking coal/coke supplies • fluctuating European demand for backhaul coal • disappointing Latin American grain season • fleet supply growth accelerating • changes in port congestion • charterer strategy • Chinese logistical bottlenecks • Chinese government slowdown measures • sentiment

  5. China’s dry bulk imports

  6. SSY Australian coal port congestion index

  7. panamax net fleet change

  8. trade outlook • world steel production & prices at historically high levels (despite signs of oversupply for some steel products in China) • greater near optimism for Chinese raw material imports…but infrastructure/pricing problems remain • introduction of new iron ore export capacity • coal prices indicative of firm underlying demand • broadening economic strength • sustained demand growth needed to absorb supply

  9. contributions to seaborne dry bulk trade growth

  10. bulk carrier newbuilding deliveries

  11. panamax net fleet change

  12. handymax net fleet change

  13. handysize net fleet change

  14. bulk carrier supply & demand: SSY base case

  15. conclusions • tonne-mile demand growth slowing from 7-8% in 2003 to a still robust 4-5% in 2004; 3-4% in 2005 • fleet supply accelerating but unlikely to grow faster than demand for at least next 12 months provided no major setback to Chinese economy • tight supply/demand balance implies high volatility • port delays and sentiment the wild cards

  16. panamax 4tc freight rates: spot & forward curves

  17. handymax 6 t/c rates & forward curve

  18. Global Shipping Markets Robin Masters SSY USA

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