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Enhancing Convective Lightning Forecasts Through Lightning Data Assimilation Techniques

This study evaluates the impact of lightning data assimilation on convective lightning forecasts in the central and eastern U.S. Using a 4 km WRF model, forecasts were generated both with and without total lightning assimilation from Earth Networks, and were validated against ground truth data from USPLN. The findings indicate that assimilating observed lightning can significantly improve forecast accuracy for up to six hours, allowing for better prediction of storm events and their characteristics. Insights from case studies, including the Moore Oklahoma Tornado, highlight the effectiveness of this approach.

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Enhancing Convective Lightning Forecasts Through Lightning Data Assimilation Techniques

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  1. An evaluation of the efficacy of using observed lightning to improve convective lightning forecasts. Lynn, Barry H., Guy Kelman, Weather It Is, LTD, Gary Ellrod, WxC, LLC

  2. Forecast Particulars 4 km WRF running operationally over central and eastern US. Forecasts made with total lightning assimilation (EarthNetworks) and without. Lightning forecasts compared to USPLN (WSI) CG lightning. *Fierro, Alexandre O., Edward R. Mansell, Conrad L. Ziegler, Donald R. MacGorman, 2012: Application of a Lightning Data Assimilation Technique in the WRF-ARW Model at Cloud-Resolving Scales for the Tornado Outbreak of 24 May 2011. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2609–2627.

  3. Outline How Long Does Assimilation Help? Review of Dates; 2-6 hour forecasts Text Book Assimilation Case Using Forecast and Observed Lightning to Filter Spurious Convection 4 km vs 1.3 km forecasts (case study) The Moore Oklahoma Tornado (A Forecast Every 10 Minutes!)

  4. 5 CG per Hour With Assimilation

  5. With Assimilation 10 CG per Hour With Assimilation 25 CG per Hour

  6. Observations With Assimilation

  7. Observations No Assimilation Assimilation Assimilation with Filtering

  8. OBS 3-6 hr OBS 1- 3 hr NO-ASS W-ASS OBS W-ASS OBS 1.3 km 1. 3km

  9. Moore Tornado Event (20 April 2013) OBS A-1920 A-1930 No-Ass 1.3 km A-1900 A-1910

  10. With Ass 1.3 km With Ass 4.0 km

  11. Conclusions Assimilating lightning can improve forecasts at least up to six hours. Lightning assimilation can make the difference between predicting any storm (and its mode) and no storm at all (or the wrong mode). Using Predicted vs Observed Lightning to filter spurious convection can greatly improve the forecast. Sometimes assimilation of lightning works better when the grid spacing 1.3 km, instead of 4.0 km. To fully realize the value of assimilation, forecasts should be made at 10 minute intervals (or at least more than at greater frequency than hourly).

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