You never leave a recession with the same technology as you enter it!!

1. You never leave a recession with the same technology as you enter it!! Quote; Moore of Intel in 1984 A look at what is coming by Andy Mulholland CTO

2. How to Foresee........... and Manage the Future!

3. Predicting the Future or Building the Future? The co development process The co development process • To shape new markets by transforming raw technology into business advantage delivered through products and services • To input technology market direction into Business Strategy planning • To gain mind share in the technology community • To provide market leading thinking that permits high value client engagement • To differentiate with a product but not leave the market behind Mutual Market Success Mutual Market Success Mutual Market Success By creating a new market By creating a new market By creating a new market Actual Actual Actual Actual Bus Solutions Bus Solutions ‘Go to market’ ‘Go to market’ Bus Solutions Bus Solutions Proposition and Proposition and delivery delivery Feature/Benefits Feature/Benefits Tech Products Tech Products Tech Products Tech Products Established Established Capability Features Benefits Standard Potential Potential Potential Potential Business Value Business Value Definition of ‘use Definition of ‘use Business Value Business Value Cases’ to establish Cases’ to establish Value proposition Value proposition Raw Technology Raw Technology Raw Technology Raw Technology Introductionof New technology Technology Technology CGEY Business CGEY Business Partner Partner Partner Partner

4. INNOVATION Strategic Investment VOLUME Industrialized Profit EMERGING Grab the Market GLOBAL SPECIALIZATION Profitable Growth Market Stage Key Features • Possess delivery capabilities, • strong credentials • High margin, global opportunity • Aspire to become famous • Grab market share • Productivity and reuse • frameworks begin to mature • Next wave of technologies we want to lead • Expected to move to “global • specialization” in 12 months • Invest ahead of the curve to dominate on the market later • High Revenue, Decreasing Margin • Global drive for market share growth and profitability Marketshare Mindshare Managing Technology Life Cycles Revenue Margin

5. Areas where clients are only beginning to innovate. Few clear leaders: IBM, Tibco, SeeBeyond, webMethods. Vendors investing heavily in R&D. IBM WSMQ dominates messaging market Tibco RV dominates pub/sub market • Vendor coverage significant. • Gartner covers 29 in magic quadrant • Integration and DBMS vendors • Open and proprietary products • Leaders: IBM, Tibco, webMethods SeeBeyond, Microsoft • Market consolidation likely over next 2 yrs • Sector leaders with specific technical solutions (e.g. Mercator in finance) Innovation Emerging High Growth Main Stream Mature Example; Technology Integration Solutions Business Process Management Fully Connected Data Integration Messaging • Messaging • Transaction management • Data Integration • Transformation & Routing • Adapters • Connectors • Legacy Integration • Human Workflow • Business Intelligence • Legacy rejuvenation • Application integration • Business process management Maturity • Collaborative commerce • Peer to Peer • Mobile & wireless • Pervasive Computing • Web Services • Virtual Enterprise • Grid computing • Loosely coupled

6. So what’s hot NOW and Happening!

7. The Good News is there is a Market! Web EAI ERP tail All Double Digit Growth Totalling $80 billion Data to Content Service Delivery Infrastructure Consolidation Embedded Software

8. An Internet Of Computers A Web Of PCs An Internet Of Embedded Processes An Internet Of Devices & Services The Path of Technology Telematics Telemetry Phones Games PCs Clients PDAs Computers Pro Activity Interaction Functions Content File Transfer Transaction TCP/IP IPv4 IPv6 Network JINI LDAP X509 P2P Protocols FTP SMTP Xwin Telenet RPC/XDR RMI/HOP JavaSpaces HTTP UDDI SOAP JXTA Systems Client Server Browser Applications N Tier Web Services Grid Services

9. Efficiency Inside the Firewall Efficiency Outside the Firewall 85 95 00 02 05 08 Between the Technology ‘S’ curves ? Productivity CRM B2B SCM e-business ERP We are here Uncertainty Re-engineering MRP Quality Circles

10. The Market Map – Architecture is the Game An Adaptive Enterprise Market Ecosystem ‘e’ Services Core Services Stable Differentiation Internal Systems Slow to change In-depth capabilities Around applications connected by ERP/EAI Adaptive to Extreme Volatility Network based Internet Services using connectivity To produce anyone to Anything Interactivity Agility for change External Systems Quick to change processes providing Business services bridging capabilities To market opportunities Other Enterprises

11. And where are we going in 200x

12. And Three Emerging Markets Mobility Agent Based Software Service Architectures

13. Mobility – some facts • PC Sales are slowing • Evolutionary, no Revolutionary Killer App visable • Mobile Phone sales are still rising globally – 400 million units in 2002 • More Mobile lines than fixed lines globally • More People SMS text each day than use the Internet • A ‘Services’ architecture and increasingly not dependant on a future around 3G • Around 20 million Video phones in 2002 • PDA sales will be around 10 million units

14. Old Word - New Meaning; Mobility Closed Network Proximity Based Services via 802.11 (WiFi) or Bluetooth Public telecom Network Services Based on Telecom Architectures Wireless Lans Mobile Networks Characteristics and architecture is based on Telecom standards with service provision according to Telco Operators model Nokia leads a consortium of 12 industry player plus OMA Advantages include any to any open public networks, unique device identification, always on session maintenance etc Characteristics and architecture is that of the IT based LAN Services and sessions are based upon existing LAN technologies; Competitors are therefore Cisco, IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, etc Limitations include NO mobility, no always on capability, and most of all closed user networks etc Wired Lans Complex spoofing gateway Required to enable communication Application Extension Taking the desk top to the user Simple presentation level gateway Is all that’s needed

15. What can it do for me? 1) Flight delayed by 20 minutes 2) Check in queue 10 minutes 3) Train unknown incident ? 4) Road M4 speeds 20mph 5) AirBus on time Recommend taking 4.15pm AirBus from Victoria Do you want seat booked? 8) = Yes 9) = No 0) return to previous screen

16. Business Intelligence & Game Theory • Questions? • A) If a company knows it is the ‘only’ operator able • to fulfil this requirement what is it’s response? • 1) Put more buses on the road to cover extra demand • 2) Sell the seats for more money,ie. the market value • 3) Would you want to differentiate existing customers • B) If the company is losing business what is it’s response • 1) Price cutting • 2) Adding Value 1) Flight delayed by 20 minutes 2) Check in queue 10 minutes 3) Train unknown incident ? 4) Road M4 speeds 20mph 5) AirBus on time Recommend taking 4.15pm AirBus from Victoria Do you want seat booked? 8) = Yes 9) = No 0) return to previous screen

17. The ‘Boundaryless’ GridThe Vision and the final Goal

18. Splitting up the concepts of ‘Grid’, ‘Utility Computing’, or ‘Service Architecture’ Users and Devices Users Services Architecture Applications Grid Utility Architecture Processors & Storage

19. Software Written to Be a Service Element ……. ……. ……. Locator ……. Calendar ……. Agent Discovered Services Software Written to Be a Common Payment Authorisation Identity The Principle of ‘Services’, and the role of ‘Agents’ Software Application Software Application Software Application Software Application Software Application Internet and World Wide Web

20. Customers, Cars, Embedded Objects Local Wireless Closed systems for Proximity signalling Public Wireless A series of new Standards & Capabilities Service Management of end to end processes Global Motors Putting it all Together! Federation Service Architecture Corporate Network Wired Public Infrastructure Collaboration Web Services Virtual Private On Public Network Dealers, Etc

21. Summary; Its a new world, its complicated to current technology but using new technology, ICT (information and communication technology)... Organisation • Enterprise Architecture based on process is evolving to Ecosystem architecture based on services • Services are abstractions of: • Process • People • ICT • Data • Service Architecture revolves around 4 key sub-architectures • Organisation • Marketplace • User • Device • Web Services are a key service type within this model and can be deployed to support one or more layers of a holistic Services Architecture • The key to deploying service based architectures within an enterprise an its ecosystem is governance • Enables services to interpret the context of collaborations • Commitments (contracts) negotiated between services • Security and Identity management • Manages Quality of Service (QoS) • QoS promotes mutually beneficial collaboration between parties • QoS provides the mechanism for determining the value of discrete collaborations • Biggest single issue in the market is the granularity of Web services • There is often little or no correlation between a Web Service and Business Value • Inconsistent granularity demonstrates the immaturity of the market and a lack of understanding of the bigger picture Organisation Marketplace Marketplace User Device User Device