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This report provides an overview of recent rainfall patterns and current conditions of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, along with predictions for the upcoming weeks. It also discusses the climatology of precipitation patterns and the potential impact of typhoons in the region.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 17, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the monsoon rainfall was generally at near to above normal levels everywhere except peninsular southern India, parts of northern India and central China. .
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southern India, southern Chia bordering South China Sea, parts of Malaysia, and southern Cambodia. Elsewhere, the rainfall was near or above normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the rainfall for the whole country was deficient by about -12 % across the country, since the start of the climatological North East winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India..
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the monsoon rainfall was generally at near to above normal levels everywhere except peninsular southern India, parts of northern India and central China. For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southern India, southern Chia bordering South China Sea, parts of Malaysia, and southern Cambodia. Elsewhere, the rainfall was near or above normal. In this past week, monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the rainfall for the whole country was deficient by about -12 % across the country, since the start of the climatological North East winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting below normal rainfall over much of the region particularly southern India. Two typhoons Sarika and Haima are active in the South China Sea and tropical Western Pacific region respectively, the later threatening the Philippine islands.
