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This paper outlines the revisions to ramp rate assumptions and the sensitivity testing based on comments and further thought. It discusses the slowing down of maximum annual rates and the split of measures by bundle system voltage. It also examines the impact of different deployment rates on resource consequences and revenue requirements.
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Achievable Penetration Rates The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee
Outline in Two Parts • Part 1 • Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions • Part 2 • Sensitivity Testing
Based on Comments & Further Thought Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual Rates
Slowed down two important new measures: From New Measure - Fast to New Measure - Medium Energy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy Management Represent about 20% of industrial savings Revisions: Industrial
Formerly All at “New Measure - Medium” Now: Split by Measure Bundle System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - Fast System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - Slow Light System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Major System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Revisions: Distribution Efficiency
Measure 30-Mar Previous LPD Package-New LO 20Fast LO Fast LPD Package-NR LO 20Fast LO Fast Lighting Controls Interior-New LO Medium LO Fast Lighting Controls Interior-NR LO Medium LO Fast Glass-Retro Retro in 20 Retro in 10 Demand Control Ventilation-NR LO Slow LO Medium Roof Insulation-NR LO Fast Retro in 10 Computer Servers and IT-Retro LO Slow LO Medium Street and Roadway Lighting-NR LO Slow LO Medium Revisions: Commercial
Residential • Consumer Electronics • New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years • LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014 • Heat Pump Water Heater • Emerging Technology Ramp Rate
Reality Check • Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 • Expect higher in 2008 • Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too • Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs • But CFL savings not in 6th Plan targets • Many New Measures • Higher Avoided Costs • Federal Standards Push • State Code Revisions in the Works
5th Plan Targets Seemed Daunting 5th Plan Targets (130 to 150 MWa) Historic Performance
Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing • Purpose: • What is the Value of Going Faster? • What is the Cost of Going Slower? • What are the Resource Consequences? • What are the Revenue Requirements? • Tool: Portfolio Model • Test Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration • Issue: What Ranges?
Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingStaff Proposal • Lost-Opportunity • SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized cost • FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized cost • Non-Lost-Opportunity • SLOW: 5th Plan Rate • FAST: Washington I-937 rate • All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced
Test Slow & Fast Deployment Rates Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa
Cumulative Deployment Rate for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources