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Calibration of the Phase 5 Watershed Model Progress Report. Modeling Subcommittee 4/3/2007. Today’s Presentations. This Presentation Phase 5 calibration strategy overview Progress since January Hydrology model validation First run of 10-year hydrologic periods Jing and Rob

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Presentation Transcript
today s presentations
Today’s Presentations
  • This Presentation
    • Phase 5 calibration strategy overview
    • Progress since January
    • Hydrology model validation
    • First run of 10-year hydrologic periods
  • Jing and Rob
    • Upgrades to the ground cover database
    • Nursery targets
    • Re-calibration of land sediment
  • Me
    • River Calibration
automated calibration
Automated Calibration
  • Makes Calibration Feasible
  • Ensures even treatment across jurisdictions
  • Enables uncertainty analysis
  • Fully documented calibration strategy
  • Repeatable
view from 30 000 feet
View from 30,000 feet

Calibration

Procedures

Input Data

“vortex”

Calibration

Data

calibration process
Calibration Process

Single-processor time

Hydrology

Land parameters

River data

1 week

Temperature

Land parameters

River parameters

River data

Land Sediment

Land parameters

Land targets

1 week

Land Nutrients

Land parameters

Land targets

1 week

River Water Quality

River parameters

River targets

1 week

progress in january

Hydrology

Land parameters

River data

Temperature

Land parameters

River parameters

River data

Land Sediment

Land parameters

Land targets

Land Nutrients

Land parameters

Land targets

River Water Quality

River parameters

River targets

Progress in January
  • Stabilized forest calculation and recalibrated
  • Work on EOF to EOS Transport Factors
  • Full calibration
progress since january code
Progress Since January - Code
  • Modified hydrology and temperature calibration procedures to allow for calibration of smaller basins
  • Consolidation of various phase 5 code versions
  • Wrote code to generate outputs requested by VA
progress since january extended data through 2005
Progress Since JanuaryExtended data through 2005
  • Rainfall, Temperature, PET
  • Observed River Flow data
  • Atmospheric deposition data
  • Point Source data
  • Ran hydrology and temperature calibration
progress since january land sediment
Progress Since January – Land Sediment
  • Integrated land cover and tillage data into the Vortex (COAST)
  • Updated targets as requested by MDE
  • Ran the calibration
progress since january land nutrients
Progress Since January – Land Nutrients
  • Modified nutrient species targets
    • Labile organics < Refractory organics
    • Refractory (P:N) < Labile (P:N)
  • Ran the calibration

TN

TP

DIN

OrgN

Labile OrgN

Labile OrgP

OrgP

DIP

Refractory OrgN

Refractory OrgP

organic simulation
Organic Simulation

Labile ORGN

DIN

BOD

P:N =

0.1384

Algae

P:N =

0.1384

DIP

Labile ORGP

DIN

Benthic

Algae

P:N =

0.1384

0.1384

0.1384

Refract ORGN

DIP

Refractory

ORGN

0.1384

Refract ORGP

Refractory

ORGP

Median Observed ORGN:ORGP ratio is 0.056

progress since january river water quality
Progress Since JanuaryRiver Water Quality
  • Derived and used subgrid transport factors
    • (convert EOF to EOS)
  • Extended calibration to 2005
  • Ran calibration
hydrology recalibration with validation
Hydrology Recalibration with Validation
  • Differences from previous hydrology
    • Through 2005 rather than 1999
    • New land use, rainfall, . . .
  • Two Scenarios
    • Calibrate using all data
    • Calibrate using first and last 40% of Data
    • Check Validation for Both
observations
Observations
  • The calibration and the validation are slightly better using all data rather than the first and last 40%
  • In both cases the agreement with the validation data set (middle 20%) is better than the calibration
model validation
Model Validation
  • It has been shown that the hydrology model and calibration procedure can be adequately validated
  • Questions:
    • Should we use the best calibration or the validated calibration?
    • Should we do the same thing for water quality?
the way to test
The Way to Test
  • Well Calibrated Model
    • Used January Version
  • Use 1985 conditions throughout
    • Used Time-Varying conditions
  • Use results to get bounds on effects of hydrology on allocation decisions
averaging period
Averaging Period
  • Relatively small changes due to averaging period
  • Real results (well calibrated model, constant scenario) will be presented to the Water Quality Steering Committee