With funding from the Rockefeller Foundation and technical and logistical support from Pact.

1. With funding from the Rockefeller Foundation and technical and logistical support from Pact.

2. http://www.seachangecop.org The Theory of Change Approach to Program Design, Monitoring, & Evaluation Colleen McGinn, PhD Social Research Consultant - Impact Evaluation Workshop - Handicap International December 2013

3. http://www.seachangecop.org Introduction to Theory of Change (ToC) • Presentation outline • What is ToC? • History of ToC • What kind of programs does ToC fit? • Similarities and differences with logic models • Steps in a ToC process • Pitfalls and disadvantages – and how to avoid them • Case study • Recommended resources Theory of Change has been described as “a roadmap, a blueprint, an engine of change, a theory of action and more” (Stein and Valters 2012: 5). • ToC outlines the building blocks and the relationships between them that would lead to the accomplishment of a long-term goal. • A practical but flexible approach to the design, monitoring, and evaluation (DME) of programs that address complex, multi-faceted, and long-term problems.

4. http://www.seachangecop.org

5. http://www.seachangecop.org What is Theory of Change? “Although there are endless variations in terms of style and content, the basic components [of a Theory of Change] include a big picture analysis of how change happens in relation to specific thematic area; an articulation of an organization or program pathway in relation to this; and an impact assessment framework which is designed to test both the pathway and the assumptions made about how change happens.” – O’Flynn 2012: 2

6. http://www.seachangecop.org History of ToC • Origins lie in two streams of research and praxis • Social justice advocacy and mobilization • Evaluation research (e.g., Carol Weiss) • Not specific to international development • Intended as a practical, flexible tool that bridges the ‘bigger picture’ specific near-term steps that can be addressed by a program or project.

7. http://www.seachangecop.org When to use ToC • ToC approaches are especially well-suited for endeavors that are: • Complex • Multi-faceted • Long-term • Large-scale • Fluid or uncertain conditions • Identifying lessons learned and assessing impact • Evaluating why and how a program contributes to meaningful social change • ToC is a good fit for: • Climate change adaptation • Gender-based violence • Conflict transformation • Access to education • Behavior change • Empowerment of marginalized groups • Social justice / social change • Any complex social issue

8. http://www.seachangecop.org Logic Models vs. ToC Logic models (“logframes”) Dillon n.d. • Logframes align the parts of a program into a hierarchy of clearly-specified: • Goals • Outcomes / objectives • Outputs / results • Inputs / activities • (Indicators) • (Assumptions) • Presented as a table

9. http://www.seachangecop.org Logic Models vs. ToC Theory of Change Anderson 2004 • Goal • A ‘causal pathway’ of steps to achieve the goal • Clear identification of preconditions, thresholds, and underlying assumptions for each step • Presented as a diagram

10. http://www.seachangecop.org Logic Models vs. ToC • Logframes and ToCcan be used together. • ToC maps out a broad vision and strategy towards change. • Not all of the steps will be directly addressed by your team. • Detailed program designs would be prepared only for selected outcomes. Either a logframe or another more detailed ToC can be prepared for these selected programs.

11. http://www.seachangecop.org Steps in a ToC • Task 1: Identify the goal(sometimes called a ‘long-term outcome’ or ‘goal’). • Goal can be broad and ambitious, but it should also be specific enough to serve as a springboard for planning • Example goal: “Vibrant, healthy communities where preventable causes of disability are minimized and disabled children and adults can live in dignity and realize their full potential.”

12. http://www.seachangecop.org Steps in a ToC • Task 2: Develop a pathway of change. • What are the preconditions to achieve each step/outcome? • Backwards mapping the answers to this question • Every precondition becomes an outcome for a nearer point • Example outcomes for our goal: • Visual disability is prevented by adequate intake of Vitamin A • Adults with physical mobility disabilities earn income sufficient to keep them out of poverty. • Many more! • Anderson 2004

13. http://www.seachangecop.org Steps in a ToC • Task 3: Operationalize outcomes. • Select indicators and thresholds for each outcome. • Thresholds are different from performance targets. • Thresholds are a measure of whether or not the outcome has been met. It may be more than what the program can achieve in the short run. • For our example outcome “Adults with physical mobility disabilities earn income sufficient to keep them out of poverty.” • Indicator: Monthly income • Threshold: 100% of adults under 60 in the village with restricted physical mobility earn more than the official poverty line.

14. http://www.seachangecop.org Steps in a ToC • Task 4: Define interventions. • Identify which steps/outcomes your agency will actually pursue. • Design programs to address these selected steps/outcomes. • For other steps/outcomes, consider how to support others who might pursue them. • For our example outcome “Adults with physical mobility disabilities earn income sufficient to keep them out of extreme poverty.” • HI will support a social enterprise and vocational training for adults with physical mobility restrictions. • For our example outcome “Visual disability is prevented by adequate intake of Vitamin A” • HI will not implement program for whatever reason (maybe another agency is implementing a good MCH and nutrition program already).

15. http://www.seachangecop.org Steps in a ToC • Task 5: Articulate assumptions. • Define what are the necessary and sufficient conditions to achieve various steps along the pathway. • Helps frame impact evaluations. • For our example HI social enterprise…. • Assumptions might include that: • Target beneficiaries want to earn income (rather than be supported by families). • Target beneficiaries have basic literacy and numeracy skills sufficient to apply and manage home-based work without supervision. • There is market demand for the social enterprise’s products.

16. http://www.seachangecop.org Steps in a ToC • Task 6: Periodically evaluate and update the ToC. • ToCs lend themselves to more analytical evaluations, including assessing impact. • Strategy should be revised and updated regularly. • In our example, we assumed that “Target beneficiaries have basic literacy and numeracy skills sufficient to apply and manage home-based work without supervision.” • What if they don’t? • If this assumption is not met, it would explain why endeavour is not working. • This assumption could instead be made an outcome and directly addressed in a revised program strategy.

17. http://www.seachangecop.org Advantages and benefits of ToC • Stronger focus on contextual analysis. • ToC processes are inherently iterative and flexible. Periodic reflection exercises allow stakeholders to respond to changes in the social, political, or natural environment. • Build a shared vision and stronger relationships with partners and stakeholders.

18. http://www.seachangecop.org Advantages and benefits of ToC • ToC processes emphasize articulating assumptions that underlie a program and what is needed to advance along a causal pathway. • Clarifies the logic of an intervention • Helps evaluators capture why and how an intervention is – or is not – effecting change.

19. http://www.seachangecop.org Advantages and benefits of ToC • Highlight contributions towards long-term change and linkages between program component • A higher level of analysis which facilitates monitoring and evaluating diverse projects within a unifying strategic frameworks, as well as with external actors.

20. http://www.seachangecop.org Advantages and benefits of ToC • More emphasis on how and why questions • Enables evaluators to assess the impact of a program towards a long-term or large-scale aim. • Well-suited to identify lessons learned, best practice, and new knowledge.

21. http://www.seachangecop.org Pitfalls and Disadvantages • ToC approaches take time to develop. • ToC processes can feel confusing or abstract to some. • ToC flowcharts can be ‘messy’ and difficult to follow. • ToC can run the risk of becoming a ‘glorified logframe.’ • ToC is not a ‘magic bullet.’

22. http://www.seachangecop.org ‘Real World’ Example: ESPA Su Summary Chart

23. http://www.seachangecop.org ‘Real World’ Example: ESPA

24. http://www.seachangecop.org Recommended Tools • Free open-access Theory of Change software can be downloaded from The Center for Theory of Change. http://www.theoryofchange.org/ • An interactive Theory of Change template can be downloaded from Keystone (together with a workbook). http://www.keystoneaccountability.org/ • An excellent Theory of Change facilitator’s guide (Anderson 2005) can be downloaded fromThe Aspen Institute. http://www.aspeninstitute.org/ • For further reading… • Vogel, Isobel. (2012). Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development. • James, Cathy. (2011). Theory of Change review.

25. http://www.seachangecop.org SEA Change is a Community of Practice that develops a culture of high quality and rigorous M&E frameworks, approaches and methodologies for climate change interventions and practices in Southeast Asia, and beyond.