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Analysing the Relationship between Risk and Trust. By Audun Jøsang and Stéphzne Lo Presti. Roadmap. Risk-Trust in Literature Measuring Risk-Trust Decision via Risk Balancing Trust and Risk Conclusion. Risk-Trust in Literature. subjectivity. uncertainty. Concept of Trust

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Analysing the relationship between risk and trust

Analysing the Relationship between Risk and Trust

By AudunJøsang and Stéphzne Lo Presti


Roadmap
Roadmap

  • Risk-Trust in Literature

  • Measuring Risk-Trust

    • Decision via Risk

    • Balancing Trust and Risk

  • Conclusion


Risk trust in literature
Risk-Trust in Literature

subjectivity

uncertainty

  • Concept of Trust

    • Trust is the extent to which one party is willing to depend on somebody, or something, in a given situation with a feeling of relative security, even though negative consequences are possible.

  • Concept of Risk

    • Anticipated hazard, measurable

  • Trust vs. Risk

    • Both difficult to scale

    • Both upon uncertainty and unpredictability

    • Relationship between them (antecedent, alternative, outcome)?

risk


Risk trust in literature1
Risk-Trust in Literature

  • A risk-trust model by fuzzy logic [Manchala1998]

  • (trans_history, cost) -> trust


Measuring risk trust decision via risk
Measuring Risk-Trust : Decision via Risk

  • Expected Utility (EU)

    • : non-linear utility function of monetary value

    • : risk averse

    • : risk seeking

    • : risk-neutral

  • Expected Monetary Value (EV)

    • : the monetary investment/bet

    • : the probability of the th outcome

    • : the gain factor of the outcome, given

  • Risk-Neutral Case

    ()

    Expected Gain


Measuring risk trust decision via risk1
Measuring Risk-Trust : Decision via Risk

  • For Decision

    • : probability of successful transaction

    • : gain factor to a successful transaction

    • : loss factor to a failed transaction


Measuring risk trust decision via risk2
Measuring Risk-Trust : Decision via Risk

  • For Decision

    • : the total capital

    • : fraction of the total capital

      • varies in the same direction of and

    • E.g.

    • : factor moderating the influence of , or risk attitude

    • Low – risk-taking; high – risk-aversion;


Measuring risk trust balancing trust risk
Measuring Risk-Trust : Balancing Trust- Risk

  • “The outcome of the transaction depends on somebody or something and that the relying party is uncertain about the outcome of the transaction.”

  • Paraphrase : the reliability of for producing a successful outcome

  • Reliability Trust: the trusting party’s probability estimate of success of the transaction


Measuring risk trust balancing trust risk1
Measuring Risk-Trust : Balancing Trust - Risk

  • Decision Trust

    • to normalize different between ’s reliability and the cut-off probability on an agent’s decision surface (risk attitude), given (1) risk attitude defined by a decision surface, and (2) transaction outcome upon and

      • : decision surface

      • : probability producing a successful outcome, given and

      • : cut-off probability on for the same and


Measuring risk trust balancing trust risk2
Measuring Risk-Trust : Balancing Trust - Risk

  • Decision Trust

    • (0,-1), (,0), and (1,1)

    • Decision trust depended on a distance between and

    • , trusting for the transaction

    • , undecided

    • , not trusting


Conclusion
Conclusion

Summary

Shortcomings:

Success of an operation is more complex than reliability of

Behavior modelling

  • To derive a computational model for risk-trust

  • Reliability trust: probability of success of the transaction

  • Decision trust: considering risk attitude, complete the notion of trust



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