1 / 51

FOOD VS FUEL DEBATE FORUM

FOOD VS FUEL DEBATE FORUM. 11 – 12 March 2009. Halevy Heritage Hotel Bloemfontein. The Impact of Biofuels Production on Food Security on biofuels production. Mr Wessel Lemmer. Senior Economist: Market Research, (Grain South Africa). Confinement of my presentation.

gblake
Download Presentation

FOOD VS FUEL DEBATE FORUM

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. FOOD VS FUEL DEBATE FORUM 11 – 12 March 2009. Halevy Heritage Hotel Bloemfontein

  2. The Impact of Biofuels Production onFood Security on biofuels production Mr Wessel Lemmer. Senior Economist: Market Research, (Grain South Africa)

  3. Confinement of my presentation • Expansion of the market to utilize the avail-able and potential production capacity • Grain SA represents feedstock suppliers for the biofuels industry with regards to:

  4. Food security for human consumptionversusfeedstock security for biofuels production

  5. White maize: Where is it going?

  6. Kenia White maize exports of 1 274 814 ton to African countries with food security related issues Zimbabwe: 439 019 tons (31%) Mozambique: 240 547 tons (17%) Botswana: 226 391 tons (16%) Kenia: 161 783 tons (11%) Namibia: 85 898 tons (6%) Lesotho: 75 891 tons (5%) Tanzania: 45 357 tons (3%)

  7. Food security in Zimbabwe 439 thousand tons (31% of export)

  8. Food Security in Mozambique240 thousand tons (17% of export)

  9. Food Security in Botswana • Botswana: Maize Meal Sales Goes Up • 20 January 2009 • "We rely on South Africa for maize meal but if the need arises we will look at other suppliers in neighbouring countries like Namibia and Zambia. You must also understand that the problem is not isolated to Botswana but affects the whole region"

  10. Food security in Namibia86 000 tons (6%) The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) found that nearly a third of Namibia's 1.8 million people lived on US$1 a day or less, but noted a sharp rise in households classified as "severely poor", or living on less than N$185 (US$19) per month.

  11. Food security in Kenya162 000 ton (11%) KENYA: Agnes Ekelan, "I can only eat if I sell firewood" KENYA: Turkana at risk of further food shortages

  12. What is the impact of food security risk on the availability of feedstock for biofuels production?

  13. Limitations on feedstock production • Limiting biofuels industrial strategy • Exclusion maize (food security concerns) and jatropha (environmental concerns) • Licensing prerequisites • Current feedstock production by BEE suppliers • Focus on development of new producers (BEE) • Exit of commercial producers to be guaranteed • No biofuels industry – no demand – reasons for the industry not developing? • Agricultural plan not being implemented and insufficient tariff policy • Limited support to commercial producers

  14. What should be done to counter food security risk and to ensure feedstock supply to the biofuels industry?

  15. What strategies should be adopted – implemented?

  16. Risks to future & adequate agricultural food & feedstock production due to • Cost of imported inputs and mechanization • Lack of incentives to producers • Deteriorating infrastructure (E.g. Roads/rail Safex silo’s) • Agricultural research capability decline • Dearth of skilled researchers due to affirmative action policy • Food surpluses and production capacity in developing countries reduce because of food aid • Inappropriateness and lack of implementation of recommended policies

  17. FEEDSTOCK SECURITY • White maize • Yellow Maize • Sorghum • Wheat • Barley • Sunflower • Soyabean • Canola

  18. BIO-ETHANOL FEESTOCK White maize

  19. White maize: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

  20. White maize: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

  21. White maize: Cumulative Exports (million ton)

  22. Production capacity: last six years

  23. Available for domestic value adding

  24. 2,3 million ton surplus available 2,3 Million ton maize

  25. Trendwise we export approximately 1,1 million tons annually (‘000 ton)

  26. Available feedstock excluding this seasons exports to food security stricken neighbours

  27. 1,0 million ton available 1,0 Million ton maize

  28. Number of plants • One 150 million liter size plant needs 375 000 tons of maize each • Thus 2,7 or nearly 3 plants in need of 375 000 tons of feedstock (maize)

  29. BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK Yellow maize

  30. Yellow maize: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

  31. Yellow maize: Imports (‘000 ton)

  32. BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK sorghum

  33. Sorghum: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

  34. Sorghum exports (‘000 tons)

  35. BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK wheat

  36. Wheat: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

  37. Wheat: Imports and exports(‘000 ton)

  38. BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK Barley AND TRITICALE

  39. Barley: Production and consumption (‘000 ton)

  40. Barley: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

  41. BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK sunflower

  42. Sunflower: Production and consumption ( ‘000 ton)

  43. Sunflower: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

  44. BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK soyabean

  45. Soyabean: Production and consumption (‘000 ton)

  46. Soyabean: Production and consumption (‘000 ton) 92 000 ton sojabooninvoere

  47. Soyabean: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

  48. Soyabean: full fat & human consump-tion & crushed for oil and cake

  49. BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK canola

  50. Canola: Production and consumption

More Related