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FOOD VS FUEL DEBATE FORUM. 11 – 12 March 2009. Halevy Heritage Hotel Bloemfontein. The Impact of Biofuels Production on Food Security on biofuels production. Mr Wessel Lemmer. Senior Economist: Market Research, (Grain South Africa). Confinement of my presentation.
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FOOD VS FUEL DEBATE FORUM 11 – 12 March 2009. Halevy Heritage Hotel Bloemfontein
The Impact of Biofuels Production onFood Security on biofuels production Mr Wessel Lemmer. Senior Economist: Market Research, (Grain South Africa)
Confinement of my presentation • Expansion of the market to utilize the avail-able and potential production capacity • Grain SA represents feedstock suppliers for the biofuels industry with regards to:
Food security for human consumptionversusfeedstock security for biofuels production
Kenia White maize exports of 1 274 814 ton to African countries with food security related issues Zimbabwe: 439 019 tons (31%) Mozambique: 240 547 tons (17%) Botswana: 226 391 tons (16%) Kenia: 161 783 tons (11%) Namibia: 85 898 tons (6%) Lesotho: 75 891 tons (5%) Tanzania: 45 357 tons (3%)
Food Security in Mozambique240 thousand tons (17% of export)
Food Security in Botswana • Botswana: Maize Meal Sales Goes Up • 20 January 2009 • "We rely on South Africa for maize meal but if the need arises we will look at other suppliers in neighbouring countries like Namibia and Zambia. You must also understand that the problem is not isolated to Botswana but affects the whole region"
Food security in Namibia86 000 tons (6%) The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) found that nearly a third of Namibia's 1.8 million people lived on US$1 a day or less, but noted a sharp rise in households classified as "severely poor", or living on less than N$185 (US$19) per month.
Food security in Kenya162 000 ton (11%) KENYA: Agnes Ekelan, "I can only eat if I sell firewood" KENYA: Turkana at risk of further food shortages
What is the impact of food security risk on the availability of feedstock for biofuels production?
Limitations on feedstock production • Limiting biofuels industrial strategy • Exclusion maize (food security concerns) and jatropha (environmental concerns) • Licensing prerequisites • Current feedstock production by BEE suppliers • Focus on development of new producers (BEE) • Exit of commercial producers to be guaranteed • No biofuels industry – no demand – reasons for the industry not developing? • Agricultural plan not being implemented and insufficient tariff policy • Limited support to commercial producers
What should be done to counter food security risk and to ensure feedstock supply to the biofuels industry?
Risks to future & adequate agricultural food & feedstock production due to • Cost of imported inputs and mechanization • Lack of incentives to producers • Deteriorating infrastructure (E.g. Roads/rail Safex silo’s) • Agricultural research capability decline • Dearth of skilled researchers due to affirmative action policy • Food surpluses and production capacity in developing countries reduce because of food aid • Inappropriateness and lack of implementation of recommended policies
FEEDSTOCK SECURITY • White maize • Yellow Maize • Sorghum • Wheat • Barley • Sunflower • Soyabean • Canola
BIO-ETHANOL FEESTOCK White maize
White maize: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)
2,3 million ton surplus available 2,3 Million ton maize
Trendwise we export approximately 1,1 million tons annually (‘000 ton)
Available feedstock excluding this seasons exports to food security stricken neighbours
1,0 million ton available 1,0 Million ton maize
Number of plants • One 150 million liter size plant needs 375 000 tons of maize each • Thus 2,7 or nearly 3 plants in need of 375 000 tons of feedstock (maize)
BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK Yellow maize
Yellow maize: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)
BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK sorghum
BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK wheat
BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK Barley AND TRITICALE
BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK sunflower
BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK soyabean
Soyabean: Production and consumption (‘000 ton) 92 000 ton sojabooninvoere
Soyabean: full fat & human consump-tion & crushed for oil and cake
BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK canola