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Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”. Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography and Geology University of North Carolina at Wilmington. March 6, 2008

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”

Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis

Atmospheric Science Program

Department of Geography

East Carolina University

Dr. Douglas Gamble

Department of Geography and Geology

University of North Carolina at Wilmington

March 6, 2008

2008 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

outline
OUTLINE
  • Economic Motivation
  • Defining the Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”
  • MSD variability and patterns
  • Modified Pressure Index
  • Vegetation Response
  • Future Work
slide4
MOTIVATION

GDP

per capita

Jamaica is a relatively poor* nation that largely depends on its agricultural yields for both export and domestic consumption. An improved understanding of the mechanisms of the Mid Summer “Dry-Spell” can have significant impacts upon agricultural productivity and economic prosperity.

* Definition of poor neglects significant cultural wealth that Jamaica possesses.

( CIA World FactBook 2007 )

data sets
Data Sets
  • NCEP NCAR monthly Reanalysis

2.5 degree gridded dataset

  • NASA Global Precipitation
  • Climatology Project (GPCP) V2
  • Terra MODIS spectral imagery
slide6
GPCP CLIMATOLOGY 1979 - 2007

Mid Summer “Dry-Spell” Signature

mm day-1

mid summer dry spell conceptual model
Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Conceptual Model

MSD timing

July

May

NAM

H

divergence

upwelling

mid summer dry spell pattern
Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Pattern

Mean pentad gauge precip. Apr. - Nov. 1979-2007

slide9
Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”

Inter-Annual Variability

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

slide10
Average Sea Level Pressure (NCEP NCAR Reanalysis)

Apr.–Nov. 1979 - 2007

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

slide11
Monthly Caribbean Low Level Jet Averages (925mb) Apr.-Nov. 1979-2007

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

slide12
Monthly GPCP Caribbean Precip. Averages

Apr.-Nov. 1979 - 2007

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

average differences july minus may
Average DifferencesJuly minus May

+4mb

increase in NASH

+5 ms-1

increase in CLLJ

-2mm / day

decrease in precip.

slide17
Modified BHI

2002 GPCP Montego Bay

Early Season MBHI

1983 GPCP Montego Bay

vegetation response via remote sensing
Vegetation Response Via Remote Sensing

Terra MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer)

36 Spectral Bands covering the Earth every 1-2 days

250m resolution

Jamaican Region Imagery delivered every 16 days

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Classification through ERDAS Imagine software

slide19
April 2006

NIR - red

________

NDVI =

NIR + red

October 2006

future work
FUTURE WORK

NDVI TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION

FARMING PERSPECTIVE

ENSO FORCINGS

For more info: [email protected]

acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
  • Dr. Scott Curtis
  • Dr. Douglas Gamble
  • Dr. Rosana Nieto-Ferreira
  • ECU Geography Department
  • Dr. Peter Robinson and the SERCC
  • National Science Foundation
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