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Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Professor Matthew England

Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Professor Matthew England Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science The University of New South Wales. Outline. Observed 20 th Century changes in the Southern Hemisphere climate system Temperature Rainfall

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Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Professor Matthew England

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  1. Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Professor Matthew England Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science The University of New South Wales

  2. Outline • Observed 20th Century changes in the Southern Hemisphere climate system • Temperature • Rainfall • Land ice, ice shelves, and sea-ice • Ocean properties • Winds and extratropical weather systems • Projected changes

  3. Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Since the Beginning of the Industrial Era

  4. 2004 1959 290 190 CO2 Concentration is Rising 2000 1000 1200 1600 1800 1400

  5. Radiative forcing in year 2000 relative to pre-industrial

  6. NH air temperatures since 1000 A.D.

  7. Is the Southern Ocean changing? … observations Larsson-B Ice Shelf Collapse 31 January to 7 March 2002 http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/animation.html

  8. West Antarctic Ice Sheet Oppenheimer (Nature 1998)

  9. Twentieth Century Land-Ice Changes Davis et al., Vaughan; Science, 2005

  10. Melting of the Greenland Ice-sheet

  11. Arctic Sea-ice melting ~10% decrease in sea-ice per decade 1990 2000

  12. Ice Age Climate Today’s Climate

  13. Antarctic Bottom Water

  14. Rintoul 2006

  15. 0.017 psu Rintoul 2006

  16. .015 .008 .009 Rintoul 2006

  17. Causes of fresher shelf water • Increased glacial ice melt? • More precipitation? • Less sea ice formation? • Change in winds and ocean circulation? Davis et al., Vaughan; Science, 2005

  18. Intermediate depth waters in both hemispheres have become cooler and fresher in recent decades. Wong et al., 1999

  19. Figure 3 from Gille, S. T., 2002. Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s. Science,295, 1275-1277. Temperature trends between 700 and 1100 m depth from ALACE floats. Observations of temperature at intermediate depths show a greater than expected warming at high latitudes and a cooling at mid-latitudes of the Southern Ocean over the last 50 years (Gille 2002).

  20. Australian rainfall trend, 1950 – present day

  21. Australian temperature trend, 1950 – present day

  22. Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream

  23. Changing Southern Hemisphere climate: the Southern Annular Mode Sen Gupta & England 2006

  24. Southern Annular Mode

  25. Roaring Forties / Furious Fifties

  26. Southern Annular Mode

  27. Southern Annular Mode … trend due to ozone delpletion & greenhouse gas increases

  28. Northern Annular Mode

  29. Regression of the Southern Annular Mode onto rainfall ‘Observed’ Model Sen Gupta & England 2006

  30. July Zonal Wind (200 hPa) 1949-1968 1975-1994 difference Pandora Hope IOCI

  31. How much will the Southern Hemisphere change in the future? … models

  32. Climate Modelling Governing equations Forcing conditions Initial conditions Model output

  33. Models of the ocean and atmosphere • Solve governing equations over a discrete grid • Use (sparse) observations in forcing functions • Integrate solutions forward in time • Assess simulation vs. observed fields

  34. 5.8 IPCC high and low projection 1.4 Spörer minimum Maunder minimum Dalton minimum 2100 The Past and the Future • Instrumental Data • Proxy Reconstructions • Model Simulations ∆T 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Year 1500 2000 500 1000

  35. Climate change appears to be buffered by the Southern Ocean THC Annual-mean temperature change predicted for ~ the year 2050 in the GFDL coupled climate model experiment (Manabe et al. 1989).

  36. Annual-mean temperature change predicted for 2070-2100 in IPCC Third Assessment Report models Annual mean change in temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines) (Unit: °C) for the SRES scenario A2, showing the period 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990.

  37. Climate Change simulation to year 2054

  38. CONTROL 2050 Figure 1. Model Simulation of Trend in Hurricanes (from Knutson et al, 2004)

  39. CONCLUSIONS • The Southern Hemisphere, like the antipodes, have undergone substantial climate change in the past century • A manifestation of climate change can be easily found in Southern Hemisphere air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks • Models suggest these changes will continue for centuries even with relatively aggressive response strategies

  40. Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Professor Matthew England Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science The University of New South Wales

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