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Thinking Strategically and Using Market Trends to your Advantage. Thinking Strategically, Thinking Differently. Strategic Marketing Workshop. “Strategy, however beautiful, should occasionally be looked at for results” Winston Churchill

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Thinking Strategically and Using Market Trends to your Advantage

Thinking Strategically,

Thinking Differently

Strategic Marketing Workshop

“Strategy, however beautiful, should occasionally be looked at for results” Winston Churchill

“This strategy represents our policy for all time, until it’s changed” Marlin Fitzwater

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” Sun Tzu

“A satisfied customer is the best business strategy of all” Michael LeBoeuf


Where Do We Need To Be 5-10 Years From Now?



Where we

are now

Where we

are now

What should we do?

And the next?…



Where Can We Be Next Year?

Incrementalism and Negotiation

Strategic Setting and

Future Market Pull

Scenario Planning

Annual Planning



How do you deal with uncertainty in the future operating environment in strategic planning?


Types of Scenario Planning

Spreadsheet Models

Strategic use is often in shorter-run planning, M&A and Investment Banking involving financial representation of business models - evaluating synergies and cost implications

Strength:Financial models are critically useful daily management tools, thus strategic results are seldom questioned

Weakness: Critical qualitative assumptions remain unstated or even unacknowledged


Types of Scenario Planning

Probability-Based Scenarios

Strategic use is often found in the first attempt of an organization to stretch out beyond extrapolative planning and spreadsheet calculation (O/P/ML)

Strength: The probability assignment process can be mind-expanding, yet the “answer” still appears as a number for those more comfortable with quantitative approaches

Weakness: The quantitative output masks the large number of unstated assumptions that went into assigning probabilities


Types of Scenario Planning

Event-Driven (or Operational) Scenarios

Strategic use typically focuses on preparing for a specific event of significant importance (e.g., Hurricane Katrina)

Strength:They tend to be tightly focused on “real world” problems, so relevancy is immediately clear and work can be done with internal expertise

Weakness: Because Operational Scenarios have strategic implications, there is a tendency to think that, if several are combined, the “strategic horizon” has been covered.

types of scenario planning
Alternative Futures (Strategic Management) Scenarios

Strategic use tends to be used for an entire business when previous planning assumptions need revision. Planning horizons of a decade or more. They focus on the future operating environment and say as little as possible about the organization doing the planning.

Strength: These scenarios offer planners the best opportunity for creativity within a rigorous setting; thus challenging conventional assumptions and identifying non-traditional opportunities/threats.

Weakness: They are the furthest out in time and thus less connected with reality and harder to embrace. They are the most resource-intensive approach and often require consulting support and internal training.

Types of Scenario Planning
This week, we’ll use two types of scenario planning techniques:

Spreadsheet models. Short-to-intermediate-run. We will use this throughout the week with the Jeppesen Marine case. Spreadsheet and probability-based models (Optimistic/ Pessimistic/Most-Likely) are what is used most commonly inside of Boeing.

Strategic Management scenarios. Longer-run. We will do a brief exercise now based on the pre-reading and then use this as a robustness check later. These are often used by your customers in both the DoD world and on the commercial side.


Use the “Scenario Workbook” to help devise two high level (“vector”) strategies (about 45 minutes)

  • You will then be asked to present these strategies to the other group, who will rate how effective they think your strategy would be in their “world” (about 15 minutes) and then we will discuss as a group (about 15 minutes)
  • We will use these again later in the week to test the robustness of the strategies you develop for Jeppesen Marine