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Climate Sensitivities of ENSO Bridging theory, observations, and modeling. Andrew Wittenberg GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA. Thanks to: Gabriel Vecchi, Qian Song, and Anthony Rosati. “Other worlds” in CGCMs. Mixed layer temperature anomaly tendency equation.

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slide1

Climate Sensitivities of ENSO

Bridging theory, observations, and modeling

Andrew Wittenberg

GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Thanks to: Gabriel Vecchi, Qian Song, and Anthony Rosati

slide3

Mixed layer temperature anomaly tendency equation

Key to understanding impact of background state on ENSO.

slide4

Mixed layer temperature anomaly tendency equation

Key to understanding impact of background state on ENSO.

slide7

Blocking the Indonesian Throughflow:

Change in mean SST (degC)

slide8

Blocking the Indonesian Throughflow:

Anomaly patterns (regressed on NINO3)

slide9

Stochastic forcing: A role for the Indian Ocean

Daily west-Pacific zonal stress from 10 AM2 runs

Observed SST forcing

slide10

Stochastic forcing: A role for the Indian Ocean

Daily west-Pacific zonal stress from 10 AM2 runs

Observed SST forcing

Warm East Indian

slide11

Summary

1) CGCMs: “Other Worlds”

2) Mixed layer heat budget & “frequency budget”

3) ICM: perturbations seed feedbacks, which alter ENSO

4) CM2: flux anomaly patterns sensitive to background

5) WWBs, nonlinearity, and a role for the Indian Ocean