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Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on ENSO Michael Delman Advisor: Dr. Doug Sinton 12/8/05

Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on ENSO Michael Delman Advisor: Dr. Doug Sinton 12/8/05. The MJO. The MJO dominates variability in the tropical Pacific Eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave associated with enhanced convection

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Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on ENSO Michael Delman Advisor: Dr. Doug Sinton 12/8/05

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  1. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on ENSOMichael DelmanAdvisor: Dr. Doug Sinton12/8/05

  2. The MJO • The MJO dominates variability in the tropical Pacific • Eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave associated with enhanced convection • 30-90 day period tracked by RMM (850mb zonal wind, 200mb zonal wind, and OLR) • Forces easterly migration of west Pacific warm pool • Modifies atmospheric circulation • Alters global precipitation patterns

  3. ENSO • Anomalous warming of eastern and central, tropical Pacific Ocean • Sea level pressure anomalies across the Pacific • Tahiti and Darwin • Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) • Trade Winds abate or reverse direction • Modifies atmospheric circulation • Alters global precipitation pattern

  4. The Dilemma • What causes: • West Pacific warm pool to move into eastern/central topical Pacific? • Sea level pressure anomalies at Tahiti and Darwin? (Fluctuations in the SOI) • Abatement of Trade Winds? • Which of these ENSO factors triggers the others? …..Which comes first?

  5. Possible Answer • Does the MJO, through atmospheric and oceanic forcing, cause changes in the SOI? • Methods of analysis: • Study a possible correlation between the RMM and the SOI • Use OLR, 850mb wind anomalies, and 200mb wind anomalies to correlate precise location of MJO to oceanic forcing (migration of warm waters) • Find lag between oceanic forcing and SLP changes

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