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How to test, use and manage sardine-anchovy-chub mackerel cycles

How to test, use and manage sardine-anchovy-chub mackerel cycles. Hiroyuki MATSUDA (Risk Management, Yokohama National University) Acknowledgement: Organizers, G.Hunt, M.Kishi, A.MacCall, Y.Watanabe, Y. Watanuki, A.Yatsu, Secretariats. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt.

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How to test, use and manage sardine-anchovy-chub mackerel cycles

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  1. How to test, use and manage sardine-anchovy-chub mackerel cycles • Hiroyuki MATSUDA (Risk Management, Yokohama National University) • Acknowledgement: Organizers, G.Hunt, M.Kishi, A.MacCall, Y.Watanabe, Y. Watanuki, A.Yatsu, Secretariats http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt

  2. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt Overview • What is one of the most important knowledge in community ecology? • Can we predict the next dominant among small pelagic fishes? • How much complexity do we need? • Will Pacific chub mackerel recover? • Be conscious of unknowns and unknowable

  3. What is one of the most important knowledge in community ecology? • Indeterminacy in indirect effects of community interactions (Yodzis 1988); 6 5 • From sensitivity analysis, the total effect between species is positive or negative even though process errors exist in growth rate; 4 3 • The “vulnerability”is not common for all species, and changes with conditions (evolutionary ecology). 1 2

  4. Only 5 to 10 percent of us succeed of the weight-loss industry lantern fish deep sea Wasp-waist is a classic dream... , is this illusion? birds seals tunas • Anyway, we need to investigate how to fluctuate the total biomass of small pelagics. sardine/anchovy pelagic copepods krill ....

  5. I still recommend eating small pelagics • Catch of small pelagics is still much smaller than consumption by top predators. • Total biomass of top predators may decrease in the 20th century. • Some species when it is rare is overfished. • Eating small pelagics is definitely smaller impact on eating higher trophic levels.

  6. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt Overview • What is one of the most important knowledge in community ecology? • Can we predict the next dominant among small pelagic fishes? • How much complexity do we need? • Will Pacific chub mackerel recover? • Warning of adaptive management • Be conscious of unknowns and unknowable

  7. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt Species replacement among pelagic fishes updated after Matsuda & Katsukawa (2002 Fish Oceanogr 11:366)

  8. sardine mackrel Anchovy, Pacific saury, jack mackerel Cyclic Advantage Hypothesis for “sardine-anchovy-chub mackerel cycles” The next dominant is anchovy – The second next is chub mackerel Matsuda et al. (1992) Res. Pop. Ecol. 34:309-319

  9. Possible combination between regime shift and species interactions • When sardine increased, water temperature differed between off Japan and off California (McFarlane et al. 2002). • A possible answer: “Temperature does not solely determine the sardine's stock dynamics.” • Climate change is a trigger for species replacement (Matsuda et al. 1992).

  10. Global regime shift drives synchronicity • We consider a cyclic-advantage model: Nij’ = c+Ni exp[rij(t)–ai1Ni1–ai2Ni2–ai3Ni3] • for species i (=1,2,3) in region j (=1,2); • rij(t) positively correlates between species (i) and between regions (j). • sr: inter-regional correlation in rij(t).

  11. Simulated effect of “regime shift” sr & correlation between speciesss small sr • If sr is small, no synchronicity; sardine increased off Japan and sardine/anchovy increased off California independently. • If sr & ss are large, sardine increased off Japan almost when some species increased off California (incomplete synchronicity); • If sr is large and ss is small, sardine increased both off Japan and California simultaneously. • Which is true? intermediate sr and large sr large sr and ss

  12. Sardine-anchovy-mackerel cycle hypothesis ... • is falsifiable because the next dominant is predictable. • encourages multiple species management (target-switching; Katsukawa & Matsuda 2003 Fish Res 60:515) • does not predict when the next replacement occurs (depending probably on regime shift...)

  13. It saves rare stock, increases total catch. Constant Harvest Ratio Positive Switching Biomass Yield What is target-switching in fisheries? • Fishery that focuses its effort (fi) on a temporally abundant species or stock i.fjBi / SBj. Katsukawa & Matsuda (2003 Fish. Res)

  14. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt Overview • What is one of the most important knowledge in community ecology? • Can we predict the next dominant among small pelagic fishes? • How much complexity do we need? • Will Pacific chub mackerel recover? • Warning of adaptive management • Be conscious of unknowns and unknowable

  15. Seek simplicity, but distrust it • Begon, Harper & Townsend (1986) "Ecology: Individuals, Populations and Communities“ Opposite standpoint: • Seek complexity, and trust it.Include all factors and data into the model There are two types of models: • Eye-opening (“Remove scales on eyes”) • Mystifying (“Smoke around the audience”)

  16. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020.ppt Seeksimplicity, butdistrustit • Make a simple model that only includes factors that are statistically/biologically evident or indispensable to obtain reasonable results. • Include process- & measurement- errors. • A simple modelwitherrors can explain the data if it does not include wrong factors.

  17. SMwE Easy to intuitively understand if reasonable Smaller degree of freedom Exclude only infeasible assumptions Accept a wide range of scenarios SMwE is useful in risk analysis Complex models Difficult to make intuitive interpretation Choose all para-meters by maximum likelihood; Overfitting to the past data Predict a unique future under each scenario. Benefits of simple models with errors (SMwE)

  18. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt Overview • What is one of the most important knowledge in community ecology? • Can we predict the next dominant among small pelagic fishes? • How much complexity do we need? • Will Pacific chub mackerel recover? • Warning of adaptive management • Be conscious of unknowns and unknowable

  19. Q& A I have predicted, the next dominant to anchovy is chub mackerel... Q: Will western Pacific chub mackerel really recover? A: It depends on the fishing pressure.

  20. Large fluctuation of recruitment Var[recruitment]：80s＞90s, P<0.3% Var[RPS]：80s＜90s, P<10-7 Strong year classes appeared twice

  21. Strong year classes were caught before the age at maturity

  22. Risk assessment of stock recovery plan (“SMwE Operating Model”) • Start age structure of the current stock; • Future RPS (at) is randomly chosen from the past 10 years estimates of RPS. (include process errors) • N0,t = SSBtat/(1+b SSBt) • Na+1,t+1 = Na,t exp[-M-Fa] (a=0,1,...5, “6+”) • Ca,t = Na,t e-M/2Fa wa Kawai,…,Matsuda, Fish. Sci. 2002

  23. F during 1970-80s Fishers missed chance of recoveryKawai,…,Matsuda, Fish. Sci. 2002 actual stock abundance (million tons)

  24. Probability of stock recovery Kawai et al. (2002: Fish. Sci.68:961-969) 1990s is Japan’s “lost 10 years”.

  25. Future of Pelagic Fish Populations in the north-western Pacific: • If overfishing of immatures continues, • Chub mackerel will not recover forever; • Do not catch immatures too much. • And if cyclic advantage hypothesis is true, • Sardine will not recover forever either; • The overfishing is an experiment for my hypothesis. (Adaptive mismanagement) • A mackerel-fishery regulation began in 2003.

  26. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2004/041020p.ppt Overview • What is one of the most important knowledge in community ecology? • Can we predict the next dominant among small pelagic fishes? • How much complexity do we need? • Will Pacific chub mackerel recover? • Be conscious of unknowns & unknowable

  27. Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield Theory • Ecosystems are usually uncertain, non-equilibrium and complex. • MSY theory ignores all the three. • Carrying capacityis defined underconstant environ. &single sp. model. • CCCC ???? surplusproduction Stockabundance

  28. Be conscious of unknowns and unknowable (cf CoML’s slogan) • Seek a testable hypothesis; • Avoid type I errors (orthodox science) • Predict “maximum” likely future • Expect an optimistic case • Give up testing hypothesis; falsifiable II errors (precautionary principle) Certify what is unlikely future Prepare the worstcase (risk management) Design management to test hypotheses in the future (adaptive management) Census of Marine Life: http://www.nagisa.coml.org/

  29. Recommendations #1 • Do fishing down in food items!! • Eat small pelagic fishes • Eat more fish, not use as fish meal!! • Feed cows on grass, not corns (“Beyond Beef”) • Reduce discards before and after landings (our dishes); • Establish food market of temporally fluctuating pelagic fishes

  30. Recommendations #2 • Switch a target fish (species replacement) • Conserve immatures • & Save a chance of multiple reproduction • Monitor “ecosystems” (not only target) • Improve technology for selective fishing • Conserve both fishes and fisheries; • unsustainable agriculture and forestry are problems rather than small pelagic fisheries

  31. Thank you for invitation!!

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