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  1. contacts • Address: Thomas Nowotny; Gusshaustr 10/23; 1040 Wien • Telephone: 5053883; cell phone: 06763638391 • EM: • Homepage: • University E- Mail ( less preferred ) • Website for the seminar:

  2. MAY I INTRODUCE MYSELF I - Thomas Nowotny – am adjunct professor ( „Dozent“) for political science – at this university. I hold the course because I like to and I do so without remuneration In the time between 2003 and 2008 I served as the Washington representative of Austria Wirtschaftsservice – an Austria Bank for the promotion of enterprise. I served the same institution in Vienna in the time from 2000 to 2003. 1996 to 2009: Senior Political Counselor at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development -London; 1993 -1997: Counselor at the Paris OECD Center for Economies in Transition; 1983 to 2003: head of the Policy Planning ( “Grundsatzabteilung”) and Council of Europe department at the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. ( editor of 9 “AußenpolitischeBerichte” ) Prior to that Consul General in New York; from 1970 to 1975 private secretary of the Austrian Federal Chancellor Bruno Kreisky. I started my professional career at the ÖsterreichischeInstitutfürWirtschaftsforschung (WIFO) then entered the Austrian Diplomatic Service in 1961 Author of several books ( the last major one : Diplomacy and Global Governance – The Diplomatic Service in an Age of World – Wide Interdependence ), and of numerous articles in US other international and Austrian magazines. I am married to the Austrian ambassador Dr Eva Nowotny

  3. Global trends and Global governancemastersseminar; forstudentsapproachingthewritingoftheirmaster‘sthesis • Venue: lecture room 1 ( A212 ) , second floor, NIG, Universitätsstr 7 • Time: Tuesday from 9:45 to 11:15 am (exactly on time ) • Attendance required. Please notify me in advance via EM: - - of any serious impediment that would stand in the way of your attending the seminar • On two meetings of the seminar, each participant will be required to write a short ( one to maximal 2 page) personal comment on the subjects that have been dealt with at the previous sessions of the seminar • Writing and presentations of the seminar paper ( details on that will be provided on one of the following slides ) • If interested in writing a masters thesis under my supervision, please contact me • I am available for face to face talks right after each of the sessions; or – otherwise and against appointment via telephone or EM – at my private residence

  4. List of participants; EM addresses, “Matrikel – Nummer” I will have to have a list of the participants. It should be completed at the first meeting of the seminar on October 14th please write your family name ( first ) and surname name on the list add your “Matrikelnummer” As well as your EM address ( as I might have to contact you).

  5. The didactic purpose of seminar and of seminar papers • They are conceived as a sort of “general rehearsals” for the masters thesis • Self confidence in expression and presentation • Learning to navigate in the flood of information, the Babel of opinion and the wilderness of theories and ideologies • Establishing credibility for what you say • Dual purpose – think about publishing pieces; book reviews are a simple version of such exercise. • Start building a cache of citations, datasets and other notes ( special IT programs for that ) • Give some thoughts ( you will certainly have done so repeatedly ) to you future footing in professional life. Chose subjects of your seminar paper - and later the subject of your master thesis accordingly

  6. What job – chances for political scientists • University education as a value in itself – BUT: in an interdependent society, based on a division of labor – you can not escape the need to work and be useful to others. • So what is the competitive advantage of political scientists? Lawyers and those in natural science reason on the base of “ when A then by necessity B. • In the social, economic and political field, relations never are that straightforward; when A the it might, or might not be B • Also political scientist must be aware of a lot, and know how to navigate in an ocean of frequently conflicting data. The skill to do so is his/her “competitive advantage” • It is for this reason that ion the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, political scientist have done rather better than lawyers ( who once had a quasi monopoly ) • Nonetheless the job prospects are rather grim ( given the number of graduates ). So add something that makes you specific • Combine with some other studies • Studies abroad; internships; language skills • Look early for institutions that offer prospects of employment, keep contact and specialize

  7. Schedule ofsessions( a moredetailedschedulewith a morecompleteenumeratiopnoftopics will beprovided online atmyuniversitywebsiteandat the firstsession ) October18th administrative matters, didatic purpose, the “how to” October 25th overview by lecturer over the vast array of topics we may address November 8th start of presentations, long term economic and demographic trends November 15th resources, energy, industrial raw materials, November 22rd food, water, natural resources, environmental degradation, November 29th negative social correlates of economic growth, measuring well – being December 6th inequality between and in states, Development Assistance December 20th Changing world order, the use of military power, new forms of conflict January 10th International Organizations; NGOs, Civil Society, Global Polity January 17th Transnational Corporations, financial markets, January 24th The notion of “governance”, changing nature of “power” January 31st Gauging Globalization, countertrends, scenarios for the future

  8. Two “homeworks” • In the week between the seminars on November 15th and on November 22nd • as well as in the week between the session on January 17th and the session on January 24th • participants will be required to write a short ( one to two page ) paper on the results of research they have done among primary sources on a subject that had been dealt with in one of the preceding seminars • In your short paper name the sources found and used as well as the methods applied in search for them

  9. Grading will be within the usual parametes; but based on: seminar paper oral presentation of the seminar paper the short reports - mentioned before - on past topics of the semionar the general participation in the seminar I will try not to be overly strict; but a failure will be graded a failure nonetheless I will be merciless though in case of detected plagiarism ( easy to detect with special software ) I will notify in advance the author of a paper I intend to grade as failed, so as to give her/him the chance to improve it ( this is one of the reasons for my asking for EM addresses

  10. Why in English • Language of world wide communication – even France had to yield. World – wide media are English. It dominates the Internet. It can no longer be considered just one of the many “foreign languages” • Language of scientific communication also in the field of social sciences • Pol – Scie Literature is near exclusively in English, the technical term used also are • Erasmus students • Looks good on cv; • Better chances for internships etc • Discussions at the seminar should be in English; if needed, the seminar paper may also be written in German

  11. The seminar paper - technicalities You may wish to consult me on the subject you wish to address The topic you chose must conform ( not verbatim but in essence ) to one on the list provide by me on October 18th The date of the presentation must also correspond to the date provide for such a presentation on the schedule Please advise me ( in writing at the seminar, or after that by EM ) but by October 25th at latest, on the topic you have chosen The first presentation is to be given on November 9th, with extra credit for such an early presentation. Depending on the number of participants we might have more than one presentations at each session. It thus might be necessary for me to assign dates I would prefer all seminar papers to have been handed in by the end of the last seminar on January 31stth. But in case of exceptional circumstances, that deadline might be extended till the begin of the summer semester 2012 Length: about 20 pages, Papers should be in English; German is acceptable though

  12. The seminar paper • Quotations: “Harvard style” into the text ( e.g Brand, 2007, p 7 ); • Semi serious – the typology of quotations ( never forget to quote those reading the paper ; or what are generally considered the standard works on an issue ) • The use of notes ( at the end of the page or after the text and before bibliography • Tables and graphs arte always useful; also the use of graphic descriptions of relationships ( arrows triangles etc ) • The bibliography can never be too long • If acronyms are used – start with a list of acronyms • Use all resources of the INTERNET – But beware of a “cut and paste job” . You have to form your own judgment on what you have to say. ( see following slide ) • Serious warnings against plagiarism ( a danger to your career – can be detected by special software )-Be prudent in “cutting and copying”. If you do it: “quotation marks” and sources • - use simple language; short sentences, verbs instead of nouns. Use complicated technical terms of pol – scie with explanations only. • You can – and even should – interview experts on the subject; but quote them in the paper

  13. How to go about writing a paper • 3 rules: a) be clear about what you have to say; b) be aware of the general factual and theoretical context of your chosen subject; c) be aware of what had been published before on this subject • For point b) handbooks of political science; handbook on international relations; even Wikipedia • For point c) look though the latest issues of the main scientific journals, and use those on – line sources, like “scie – pol” that also publish abstracts • I have found very helpful and friendly the librarians at the Main University Library. They help you to do searches: For some of this help the will ask for an authorization by the lecturer / professor • Start out rather early with a hand – written outline of your paper and adjust it in view of the research mentioned above

  14. The formal structure of the paper • Form should follow content, of course. But in general the following structure may be recommended • FIRST PART • 1) abstract • 2) one – three short sentences on what the paper is about • 3) summing up what you are going to say • 4) methods used • 5) sources used • SECOND PART • 1) facts found • 2)attempts to generalize from these findings • 3) critical review of theoretical explanations offered in the literature • THIRD PART • 1) conclusions • 2) recalling all of the above • 3) notes • 4)List of tables and graphs • 5)bibliography

  15. Oral presentations • the main content and conclusions of the papers should be presented to the seminar and be discussed there. That should be done with support of “Power Point” ( I will bring my lap –top so you just would have to bring your memory stick. If you use “Apple” you will have to bring your own lap - top) • Power-Point is useful also because it serves as a kind of teleprompter. Try to speak freely. The presentation and the discussion should be in English • The presentations should take about 20 minutes, with an other 20 minutes devoted to a discussion of the presentation ( again depending on the number of presentations at each session ) • The seminar should be very interactive. All should aim to participate in discussion. The lecturer will • presentationsmay be made even if the underlying paper is still ( in an advanced ) stage of work

  16. You are what you eat - not just hamburgers but also the New York Times Pol- Scie makes sense only if you are truly interested in the subject The raw material you use is politically relevant information You have to consume steadily but according to a diet –plan One serious Austrian paper daily One of the major International Dailies ( coffee house, AK library ) International Herald Tribune, NeueZürcherZeitung, Financial Times, le Monde, the Guardian, vary between them -one weekly; I recommend the London “Economist” ( biased but necessary ) Don’t’ rely on the Internet as a substitute ( it is a supplement ); the danger of reading just what you want instead of reading what generally is considered important. Magazines: Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, New York Review of Books, Security, RélationsInternationales, le Monde Diplomatique, etc Look into ideologically biased but nonetheless serious monthlies especially if you do not agree with their basic philosophy ( if a you are a “liberal” read the US “National Interest”; if “conservative”, read “Le Monde Diplomatique” )

  17. The dilemma of Political Science as a “science” ( is it truly political? Is it a “science”?) -To what extent does it differ from history? To what extent does it differ from natural science Predictions are not possible. Why this impossibility? Too many variables; non – linear relations, no control groups Trying to establish “laws” ( eg Kennedy: “the rise and fall of great powers”; Fukuyama: “the end of history”; or even Karl Marx –polarization ). Always interesting, but beware of mistaking that for ironclad inevitabilities The use and limitations of panel studies; the problem of “n”; the problem of the variables; the problems of data – sets ( POLITY IV ), panel studies actually no more than blown up correlations; useful nonetheless in “falsifying”. Understand the technique of panel studies; software is available. Political systems “chaotic”. Do Mandelbrot – patterns emerge? Probably yes

  18. The danger of theory – theory before facts • In Political Science, theories do not just reflect reality, they shape reality. Temptations of convenience ( “elegance” ); temptations of interest; temptations of power. • The normative, the intent to shape reality, is frequently their prime purpose. • - a whole zoo of specimens: Gobineau, Liebenfels, Hitler, • Other examples: NAIRU - the non accelerating inflationary rate of unemployment; or “Geopolitics” and related to that the “realistic” theory of intern. relations • Herman Kahn and his 42 steps on the ladder of escalation, escalation dominance • On the other hand: Dependenzia – theory, • Denis Meadows, • The dangers and consequences of theory before facts nowhere greater than in international / global affairs, as the incertitudes are vast, the interests in specific outcomes and interpretations very high; and the consequences of bad choices tragic • It is for these reasons that the seminar aims to lead students to the base primary sources; and in particular to empirical data

  19. How to combine theory and facts Nonetheless we can not do without generalizing - without theories When acting – as we must – we are necessarily guided by general notions on the context and the consequences of such action. Without these we would be incapacitated and would drown in a flood of un – organized facts Approach these data in an iterative manner Have some ideas on what is relevant to the question under investigation ( eg “growing inequality”). order them according to this concept; see whether data and concept fit together Don’t argue in terms of cause and effect – stay with the Mandelbrot concept One example “ democratic peace” Other examples: presidential vs. parliamentarian systems

  20. Where to search and look • Theories – as already mentioned: handbooks for political science and international relations are a good source. Citations of basic literature in Wikipedia are mostly right to the point • event data; e.gPolity, IV, war and conflict data – Singer, University of Michigan, political documentation ( New York Times, Keesing ) • Internationally comparable statistics ( our prime source for this seminar ): IBRD – especially the World Development Report; IMF – World Economic Outlook; FAO: The State of Food and Agriculture; IEA: World Energy Outlook; IISS: Military Balance; OECD: a prime source on its member countries; SIPRI: Yearbook; UNDP: World Development Report; UN: UN Statistical Yearbook; International Section of the Austrian Statistical Yearbook; Transparency International; Freedom House; UNIDO: Industrial Development Report; WHO: World Health Report, WTO: WTO Annual Report, Worldwatch Institute: State of the World; UN - Habitat: Global Report on Human Settlements; UNCTAD: Trade and Development Report, World Investment Report; UNEP: “Global Environmental Outlook; BIS: The BIS consolidated International Banking Statistics; International Food Policy Research Institute; IIASA: working papers; ATTAC; Heidelberger InstitutfürKonfliktforschung; etc; etc. • This list is incomplete – of course

  21. The sky is falling or is it? A secular trend: the prices of industrial raw materials

  22. Trends are rarely linear • Generally they have the shape of an S – curve • Example world population growth • Generally, we know what happens at the “steep section” of this S curve; but we know much less about what stands at its beginning; and what at its end • Example world economic growth and economic growth of regions and states; the spread of democracy • Even S- shaped trends can “break”; millenial “tipping points” – for example the end of the Roman empire; or the tendency for states to become bigger; or environmental collapse ( Easter islands ) • The double meaning of “scenarios”: a) S curve projected into the future; or b) thinking about the unexpected but possible. • At this seminar we will attempt to follow these tow divergent lines

  23. Now lets give it a try- pessimists versus optimists • Form two groups ( membership at random not by preference ) • One will argue that the wealth of the rich is the reason of the poverty in the rest of the world • The other group will argue that poverty results from the lack of development which – in principle – should be accessible to all. Poverty would thus have internal and not external causes • Prepare your argument in in – group consultations ( about 5 – 8 minutes ). Then starting to argue against the other group • Argue with what you assume to be verifiable facts