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Spatial Indices of Upwelling. 1) Coastal Topography. Premise. Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry. How to quantify coastal topography?. ‘Coastal Anomaly’. Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press. Bays. Headlands.

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slide1

Spatial Indices of Upwelling

1) Coastal Topography

premise
Premise
  • Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry
coastal anomaly
‘Coastal Anomaly’

Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press

slide5

Bays

Headlands

slide6

COASTAL STRUCTURE

-1.0

(Embayments)

Along-coast Distance (km)

Normalized residual from smoothed coast

0

(Headlands)

+1.0

Scale of Smoothing (km)

slide7

COASTAL STRUCTURE

Smoothing Scale=1000 km

slide8

COASTAL STRUCTURE

Smoothing Scale=50 km

slide9

Coastal Topographic Index

Chile

WNA

S. Africa

slide10

Cons

Pros

  • Easily calculated
  • Data readily available
  • Arbitrarily high resolution
  • Can index processes at multiple scales
  • Indirect index; index of upwelling or any other process depends on nature of coupling
  • Not dynamic (no time component)
  • Oversimplified?
slide12

Spatial Indices of Upwelling

2) SST-derived indices

slide13

Coastal SST

latitude

time

longitude

slide21

Spatial Cross-Correlations

A) Topo vs. kelp

B) Topo vs. chl-a

C) Topo vs. Δ SST

slide23

Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

Approximately the same characteristic scale

slide24

Variable

Nugget (SE)

Sill (SE)

Range (SE) (km)

Kelp

0.35 (0.09)

0.65 (0.09)

188 (100)

Chl-a

0.13 (0.08)

0.87 (0.08)

178 (34)

ΔSST†

0.008 (0.007)

0.992 (0.007)

151 (18)

Coast Anomaly

0.04 (0.03)

0.96 (0.03)

161 (40)

Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

slide26

WNA

73 sites

along 6000 km

of coast

South Africa

58 sites along 2000 km of coast

Chile

26 sites

1000 km of coast

slide27

What scale of coastal features matter to the process you’re interested in?

Correlation between variable of interest and topographic index at each smoothing scale

scale of pattern is just part of the question

0.6

0.4

0.2

Cross-Correlation

0

-0.2

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Along-coast Lag Distance (km)

Scale of pattern is just part of the question

Peak @ 15 km in the poleward direction

slide36

Multiple regression with:

Topo10km, Topo150km, Coastal Coordinate (linear latitudinal trend)

Balanus

r2=0.84, p<0.0001

slide41

Site 1

Santa Barbara

Site 2

Site 3

Site 4

Offshore

Larval

Pool

Nearshore Ocean

Offshore Ocean

slide42

Sea Temp (SST)

Recruitment

Santa Barbara

Recruitment

Current

ChlorophyllA

Recruitment

Current

Current

Recruitment

Current

Offshore

Larval

Pool

16 points in time, each describing previous month

Offshore Ocean

Nearshore Ocean

slide43

i = space index , t = time index

2

TS=0

Onshore

Delivery

Offshore

Larval Pool

Combine these

to get Recruitment

Data:

SSTt-TS

Rit

Git

Rit~Poisson(FtHitei)

Likelihood:

i~N(0,2)

Logit(Hit)= 0+1Git+g

g~N(0,m2)

Links:

Ft = k + STS*SSTt-TS

k,S

2

0, 1, m2

Parameters:

N(0,10-3)

vague

IG(10-3,10-3)

vague

IG(2,10)

informative

N(0,10-3)

vague

Priors:

slide44

Chl , gate+errror, Gamma

SST , gate+errror, Gamma

SST , gate+errror,

Poisson

SST , gate+errror,

Poisson, site effects