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Understanding Alliances: Impact on War Dynamics from 1495 to 1975

This introduction to alliances explores their role in the context of war, particularly among Great Powers from 1495 to 1975. It examines different types of alliances, such as defense pacts and neutrality agreements, and discusses the complex relationship between alliances and warfare, including how they can both deter and provoke military conflict. Jack Levy's study reveals that while alliances were often followed by war, they are not strictly necessary for its occurrence. This analysis provides insights into the evolving nature of international relations and the reliability of allies in warfare.

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Understanding Alliances: Impact on War Dynamics from 1495 to 1975

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  1. Alliances and War V&H, Chapter 1 (Levy)

  2. Introduction Alliance: A formal agreement among a limited number of countries concerning the conditions under which they will or will not employ military force.

  3. COW Alliance Types • Defense pact • Neutrality/Non-aggression pact • Entente

  4. Alliance-War Relationship • Alliances make war less likely • Balance of Power theory • Deterrence • They reduce uncertainty

  5. Alliance-War Relationship • Alliances make war more likely • They generate counter alliances and arms races • Audience costs • Permanent alliances reduce the number of potential coalitions against the aggressors

  6. Empirical Findings • Alliances were associated with peace in the 19th century, but war in the 20th century • Alliances make the expansion of war more likely • Allies are not reliable during war (Sabrosky); allies are reliable during war (Leeds, Long, and Mitchell)

  7. Jack Levy’s Study • He focuses on Great Powers (GP) from 1495-1975 • Interstate wars involving at least one GP (119 total, 64 with GP’s on both sides) • Question: are alliances necessary and/or sufficient conditions for war?

  8. Number of Alliances Over Time Century 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th Total # of alliances 5 9 15 25 65 119 # of GP 4 5 14 14 40 47 alliances % GP alliances 80% 56% 93% 56% 15% 39%

  9. Necessary Condition • Every war (Y) will be preceded by an alliance (X) • Some alliances (X) may not lead to war

  10. Necessary Condition

  11. Sufficient Condition • Every X (alliance) will be followed by Y (war) • Some wars may occur when there is no X (alliance)

  12. Sufficient Condition

  13. Levy’s Conclusions • Most alliances were followed by war within 5 years (except the 19th century) • Thus alliance is a near sufficient condition for war in most centuries • However, most wars were not preceded by alliances • Alliances are not necessary conditions for war

  14. Alliance Reliability • Do alliance partners come to each other’s aid in war? • Allies do what they promise 75% of the time (Leeds, Long, Mitchell)

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