Multi Entity Bayesian Network

1. Multi Entity Bayesian Network An Overview By: Asma SanamLarik& SyedaSalehaRaza Authors: Paulo daCosta & Prof. Laskey

2. LOGIC • Davis (1990) defines “ Logic as a schema for defining languages to describe and reason about entities in different domains of application” • A logic with Propositional expressive power can reason about particular individuals but cannot express Generalization • A First-Order Logic can reason about general properties and relationships that apply to collection of individuals

4. In a computational theory, expressions are encoded as data structures on a computer and the proof rules are implemented as computer programs

5. First-Order Logic • First-order logic is primary among logical systems from both a theoretical and a practical standpoint. It has been proposed as a unifying logical foundation for defining extended logics and interchanging knowledge among applications written in different languages • However, its applicability has been limited by the lack of a coherent semantics for plausible reasoning • A theory in first-order logic assigns definite truth-values only to sentences that have the same truth value (either true or false) in all interpretations of the theory • The most that can be said about any other sentence is that its truth-value is indeterminate

8. Limitations of BN • BN assumes a simple attribute-value representation i.e. each problem involves reasoning about the same fixed number of attributes with only evidence changing from problem instances. • However any domain require reasoning about varying number of related entities of different types and relationships where the number, type and relationships cannot be specified in advance and are uncertain

9. Limitations of FOL • Systems based on FOL have the ability to represent entities of different types interacting with each other in varied ways • However systems based on FOL lack theoretically principled, widely accepted, logically coherent methodology for reasoning under uncertainity

10. What is MEBN ? • MEBN is not a computer language such as Java or C++, or an application such as Netica or Hugin. Rather, it is formal system that combines expressive power of FOL with logically consistent treatment of uncertainty. • MEBN provides syntax, a set of model construction and inference processes, and semantics that together provide a means of defining probability distributions over unbounded and possibly infinite numbers of interrelated hypotheses

11. What is MEBN?

12. Entities and Random Variables • The MEBN language treats the world as being comprised of entities that have attributes and are related to other entities • Constant and variable symbols are used to refer to entities • Random variables represent features of entities and relationships among entities. • Unique Identifier Symbols are either Truth valued symbols , undefined symbols or Entity Identifier symbols

13. Random variable symbols include Logical connectives ,Equality operators and Quantifiers • The variable symbol <> represents Identity reserved random variable. It is identity function on T, F or Absurd • Findings are the random variables used to represent observed Evidence.

14. What are Mfrags? • Like a BN, an MFrag contains nodes, which represent Random Variables, arranged in a directed graph whose edges represent direct dependence relationships. • Mfrag contains 3 types of nodes: • Context Node • Input Node • Resident Node

15. MFrag • An Mfrag represents a conditional probability distribution for instances of its resident random variables given their parents in the fragment graph and the context nodes • A node in an Mfrag can have a parenthesized list of arguments. These arguments are placeholders for entities in the domain • The Resident Nodes of an Mfrag have their local distributions. • Input and Context Nodes influence the distribution of the Resident Node. • Context Nodes specify the conditions that must be satisfied. They are Boolean Nodes

16. Figure showing MEBN

17. StarTrek

19. Figure shows Danger when four ships are nearby

20. This table shows Danger To Self MFrag Probability Distribution Relevant Starships Nearby Danger Level Dist. At least 1 Cardassian [0.925, 0.024, 0.006, 0] At least 2 Cardassians [0.99, 0.008, 0.002, 0] At least 3 Cardassians [0.975, 0.2, 0.05, 0] More than 4 Cardassians [1, 0, 0, 0] No Cardassians but at least 1 Romulan [.73, .162, .081, .027] No Cardassians but at least 1 Romulans [.76, .144, .072, .024] … … (see formula) No Cardassians but 10 or more Romulans [1, 0, 0, 0] No Cardassians or Romulans, one Unknown [.02, .48, .48, .02] … … (see formula) No Cardassians or Romulans, 10+ Unknown [.20, .30, .30, .20] … …(see formula)

21. Recursive MFrag • MEBN also provides theoretically grounded support for representing very general forms of recursion via MFrags that allow influences between instances of the same RV template. • Allowable recursive definitions must ensure that no RV instance can influence its own probability distribution. • As in non-recursive MFrags, the input nodes in a recursive MFrag may include nodes whose local distributions are defined in another MFrag. In addition, the input nodes may include instances of recursively defined nodes in the MFrag itself.

22. Recursive MFrag

23. Recursive MFrag

24. MTheory • MFrags provide a flexible means to represent knowledge about specific subjects within the domain of discourse, but the true gain in expressive power is revealed when we aggregate these knowledge patterns” to form a coherent domain theory that can be applied to reason about specific situations and refined through learning. • A collection of MFrags that satisfies consistency constraints ensuring the existence of a unique joint probability distribution over its random variables is called an MTheory. • MTheories can express probability distributions over truth values of arbitrary First Order Logic sequences and can be used to express domain-specific ontologies that capture statistical regularities in a particular domain of application.

25. MTheory A valid MTheory must ensure that: • all recursive definitions terminate in finitely many steps and contain no circular influences. • Since random variable instances may have a large, and possibly unbounded number of parents, the local distributions must have reasonable limiting behavior as more and more parents are added. Laskey (2005) proved that when an MTheory satisfies these conditions (as well as other technical conditions that are unimportant to our example), then there exists a joint probability distribution on the set of instances of its random variables that is consistent with the local distributions assigned within its Mfrags.

26. MTHeory Diagram

27. Type Uncertainty MEBN can represent uncertainty about the type of an entity, refine type-specific probability distributions through Bayesian learning, inherit distributions from parent types, and incorporate other features related to representing and reasoning with incomplete and/or uncertain information in typed systems (Costa, 2005). As an example, we might consider two subtypes of starships, fighters and cargo ships. When we are unsure about a starship’s type, the result of a query that depends on type will be a weighted average of the result given that the ship is a fighter and the result given that it is a cargo ship. As an example, suppose we had two different types of space traveling entities, starships and comets, and we are not sure about the type of a given entity. In this case, the result of a query that depends on the entity type will be a weighted average of the result given that the entity is a comet and the result given that it is a starship.

28. Existence Uncertainty To allow for hypothetical starships, the local distribution for Exists(st) assigns non-zero probability to False. Suppose the unique identifier !ST4 refers to a hypothetical starship nominated to explain the report. In this case, Isa(Starship, !ST4) has value True, but the value of Exists(!ST4) is uncertain. A value of False would mean !ST4 is a spurious starship or false alarm. Queries involving the unique identifier of a hypothetical starship return results weighted by our belief that it is an actual or a spurious starship. Belief in Exists(!S4) is updated by Bayesian conditioning as relevant evidence accrues. Representing existence uncertainty is especially useful for counterfactual reasoning and reasoning about causality.

29. Association Uncertainty MEBN logic can also represent association uncertainty, a major problem for multi-source fusion systems. Association uncertainty means we are not sure about the source of a given report. For example, a report (say, !SR4) may indicate a starship near a given location, but it may be unclear whether the report was generated by !ST1 or !ST3, two starships known to be near the reported location, or by a previously unreported starship !ST4. In this case, we would enumerate these three unique identifiers as possible values for Subject(!SR4), and specify that Exists(!ST4) has value False if Subject(!SR4) has any value other than !ST4. Many weakly discriminatory reports coming from possibly many starships produces an exponential set of combinations that require special hypothesis management methods (c.f. Stone et al. 1999). For example, we might not nominate !ST3 as a possible value for Subject(!SR4) if its distance from the reported location exceeded our gating threshold, even though if is logically possible for the report to have been generated by !ST3.

30. Identity Uncertainty Closely related to association uncertainty is identity uncertainty, or uncertainty about whether two expressions refer to the same entity. Association uncertainty can be regarded as a special case of identity uncertainty – that is, we are unsure about the identity of Subject(!SR4).

31. SSBN &MEBN Inference MEBN inference responds to queries for the degree of belief in target RVs given evidence RVs. Situation Specific Bayesian Network (SSBN) This is an ordinary Bayesian network constructed by combining instances of the MFrags in the generative Mtheory. An standard Bayesian network inference algorithm is applied to the SSBN to answer the query. The answer to the query is obtained by inspecting the posterior probabilities of the target nodes.

32. Example - MEBN Query Finding: In our example, the finding MFrags will convey information that we have five starships (!ST0 through !ST4) and that the first is our own starship. For the sake of illustration, let’s assume that our Finding set also includes data regarding the nature of the space zone we are in (!Z0), its magnetic disturbance for the first time step (!T0), and sensor reports for starships !SR1 to !SR4 for the first two time steps. Targets: We assume that the Target set for our illustrative query includes an assessment of the level of danger experienced by the Enterprise and the best decision to take given this level of danger.

34. SSBN Construction Algorithm • Initialization: Set the query set Q to the union of the target nodes and the finding nodes. Initialize the RV instances R0 = Q. Set the maximum number of states per random variable N0 equal to a finite integer. Set i = 0. • SSBN Structure Construction. Set the current SSBN Bi to contain the nodes in Ri and all arcs corresponding to influencing configurations. Remove from Bi any barren nodes, nodes d-separated from target nodes by finding nodes, and nuisance nodes for which marginal distributions do not need to be updated. • Local Distribution Construction. Set the local distributions in Bi, modifying the local distributions to restrict random variables to no more than Ni possible values and, to approximate the effect of random variables that have not been enumerated, and compute for no more than Ki steps. • Inference. Apply standard Bayesian network inference to compute conditional distributions for the target random variables given the finding random variables. If findings have probability zero, report that the findings are inconsistent. • Instance Enumeration and Approximation Parameter Updating. If a stopping criterion is met, output Bi. Else add to Ri additional parents of random variables for which adding additional parents might change the distribution, increase Ni and Ki and return to Step 2.

35. SSBN • In some cases the SSBN can be infinite, but under conditions given in Definition 2 above, the algorithm produces a sequence of approximate SSBNs for which the posterior distribution of the target nodes converges to their posterior distribution given the findings. Mahoney and Laskey (1998) define a SSBN as a minimal Bayesian network sufficient to compute the response to a query. A SSBN may contain any number of instances of each MFrag, depending on the number of entities and their interrelationships.

36. MEBN As a full integration of first-order logic and probability, MEBN provides: • a means of expressing a globally consistent joint distribution over models of any consistent, finitely axiomatizable FOL theory; • a proof theory capable of identifying inconsistent theories in finitely many steps and converging to correct responses to probabilistic queries; and • a built in mechanism for adding sequences of new axioms and refining theories in the light of observations. Thus, even the most complex situations can be represented in MEBN, provided they can represented in FOL.