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THEY CAN GNAW THROUGH STUCCO!!!. People Think They’re Cute. BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM Apr 18th, 2013 WELCOME!. AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTES QUOTE OF THE DAY OPTIMISM GAUGE CHARTS OF INTEREST SO WHAT’S UP WITH: THE “ MYSTERY SUBJECT” A CLOSER LOOK AT: MX DAVID’S CORNER

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slide1

THEY CAN GNAW THROUGH STUCCO!!!

People Think They’re Cute

slide2

BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM

Apr 18th, 2013

WELCOME!

slide3

AGENDA

  • WELCOME!
  • ADMIN NOTES
  • QUOTE OF THE DAY
  • OPTIMISM GAUGE
  • CHARTS OF INTEREST
  • SO WHAT’S UP WITH: THE “MYSTERY SUBJECT”
  • A CLOSER LOOK AT: MX
  • DAVID’S CORNER
  • SWAPS AND SPREADS
  • LEE’S COMMENTS
  • QUESTIONS/COMMENTS
slide4

“NOTES”

  • IF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TO
  • HAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT.
  • WE’LL UN-MUTE YOU ON OUR END SO YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS.
  • PLEASE MUTE AUDIO FROM THE MENU ON YOUR SCREEN SO
  • WE DO NOT GET FEEDBACK.
  • THANK YOU!
slide6

BigFoot On LinkedIn!

Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”

slide7

Notifying You!

SMS Alert System

slide8

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

If I’d just tried for those dinky singles…..

….I could’ve batted around 600!

Babe Ruth

slide9

Optimism Gauge

As of: 4/18/2013

slide10

Measuring Our Economy

Last Update: 4/18/2013

slide11

Measuring Our Economy

READING AS OF: 4/18/2013

Economic

Optimism

Index

NOTES/COMMENTS

CURRENT READING: 59.1%

PRIOR READING: 67.7%

BIAS: SLIGHTLY BULLISH

8 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE

TREND - DOWN

45

65

35

75

25

85

59.1%

15

95

Current Reading

Prior Reading

POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012

slide13

“HEADLINE” DATA

Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo

slide14

BUT REALLY A “TALE OF 3 CITIES!”

THE HEADLINE!

BUT A REALLY IMPORTANT METRIC

Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo

slide16

The ZEW Study

Center for European Economic Research

  • Monthly Data
  • Up to 350 financial experts
  • Survey of expectations for the next 6 months
  • Done for: Eurozone; Japan; Great Britain; U.S.A.
  • Very respected publication

Source: EIA

slide17

The ZEW Study

Source: EIA

slide18

The ZEW Study

Source: EIA

slide19

CREDIT BAROMETERS

IN THE

“SAFE” ZONE

Source: Chicago Fed

slide21

2 OUT OF 3 IS GOOD

Over 1M – High since 2008

slide23

LET ME TELL YOU A STORY

ABOUT WHY PEOPLE DO THINGS

BECAUSE AFTER ALL….IN THE VALLEY OF THE BLIND

THE ONE-EYED MAN IS KING… OR SO HE THINKS!

slide24

IT’S AN OLD STORY

ENTHUSIASM

DISILLUSIONMENT

  • THIS WILL WORK FOR ME
  • WHY SHOULDN’T I ?
  • DON’T UNDERSTAND – DON’T TRY
  • “THEY” SAY SO
  • RUMOR IS FACT
  • I BELIEVE…….YES!!!
  • NOW’S THE TIME!
  • I’LL DO IT
  • TIME TO BRAG
  • GO FOR MORE
  • SO MANY JOIN ME – GETS EVEN BETTER
  • THE STORY CHANGES
  • THE SPELL IS BROKEN
  • THERE ARE EXPLANATIONS
  • FINGERS POINT
  • BLAME, CONSPIRACY
  • CAN’T BE WRONG…CAN I?
  • WHY DID I DO THAT??
slide25

IT LOOKS GREAT

NOW

SIMPLE….RIGHT?

slide26

COMPLICATIONS …CAN’T BE!

WELL…THERE WERE

SOME UPS AND DOWNS

slide27

DON’T CONFUSE ME WITH DATA ….

I’LL BE FINE

WHAT THE HECK?

..OR NOT

SEE..I’M OK

slide28

EPITAPH:

  • It is all so easy until it’s not
  • You just think you know things –they are not as they appear
  • Understanding is the key
  • Adapting to change is difficult
  • You must adjust to the facts

THE END!

slide29

WELL ….THERE’S A MORAL TO THE STORY

  • YOU ARE ALWAYS “BEING SOLD”
  • LIMITS ARE YOUR FRIEND
  • WARNINGS ARE JUST THAT
  • LOOKING BACK IT WAS ALWAYS SO OBVIOUS
  • YOU WILL BE TEMPTED
  • WHERE WAS YOUR PROCESS?
  • IS THE ONE-EYED MAN REALLY A KING?
slide30

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

SO WE’RE TALKING ABOUT GOLD

BUT YOU KNEW THAT!

slide31

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

OUR LITTLE STORY TELLS A TALE OF MISUNDERSTANDING

BUT THERE ARE SOME PERTINENT

THOUGHTS, ANALYSIS, & POSSIBILITIES

Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends

slide32

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

  • SOME THOUGHTS
  • The price pattern is broken when demand no longer outstrips supply
  • The declining price, in turn, further reduces price
  • And so on….
  • Fear “arrives”

Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends

slide33

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

  • SOME ANALYSIS
  • Gold is a commodity
  • In the past we “pegged” it to something – now it’s difficult
  • It’s not the ultimate currency – AS ONCE THOUGHT
  • Subject to many forces in a global economy
  • Will probably continue to trend down until we have a strong
  • external influence
  • The reasons gold has gone up may continue to pull it down:
    • Economic environment
    • ETF holdings
    • New/revised estimates (think Goldman Sachs)
    • Cyclical pattern

Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends

slide34

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

  • OTHER FACTORS:
  • Failed technical levels
  • Bank of Japan actions
  • U.S. Dollar
  • Margin Calls
  • Piling on by hedge funds
  • Momentum/Model based trading
  • FOMC minutes suggesting earlier rise in rates

Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends

slide35

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

  • POSSIBILITIES:
  • Large hedge funds moving out of gold
  • Federal Reserve sales
  • Central Bank selling
  • Cypress unloading gold reserves

Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends

slide36

SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

  • WILL IT STAY DOWN?
  • Depends on your macro view
  • Depends on your definition of “investing”
  • World debt burdens are a threat
  • Fiat currencies erode faith
  • Secular trend still in place
  • Gold supply is getting more limited
  • Emerging market buying?
  • Recent sell-off is very technical
  • Weaker dollar on horizon with debt issues
  • Large short positions could trigger covering

Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends

slide38

HISTORICAL RELATIONSHOP BETWEEN GOLD/INFLATION

RATIO OF GOLD TO INFLATION

Now

6.84

Average

3.33

Source: FRED

magnachip semiconductor corp mx
MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp (MX)

MagnaChip Semiconductor Corporation designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products for high-volume consumer applications. It operates in three segments: Display Solutions, Power Solutions, and Semiconductor Manufacturing Services. The Display Solutions segment offers source and gate drivers, and timing controllers that cover a range of flat panel displays used in liquid crystal displays (LCDs), light emitting diodes (LEDs), 3D and organic light emitting diode televisions and displays, notebooks, and mobile communications and entertainment devices. The Power Solutions segment develop, manufactures, and markets power management solutions, including metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors, power modules, analog switches, LED drivers, DC-DC converters, voice coil motor drivers, and linear regulators. This segment offers its products for a range of devices, including LCD, LED, 3D televisions, smartphones, mobile phones, desktop PCs, notebooks, tablet PCs, and other consumer electronics, as well as for industrial applications, such as power suppliers, LED lighting, and home appliances. The Semiconductor Manufacturing Services segment manufactures various products comprising display drivers, LED drivers, audio encoding and decoding devices, microcontrollers, touch screen controllers, RF switches, park distance control sensors for automotives, electronic tag memories, and power management semiconductors. This segment offers semiconductor manufacturing services to fabless analog and mixed-signal semiconductor companies. MagnaChip Semiconductor Corporation provides its products and services to consumer electronics OEMs, subsystem designers, and contract manufacturers through a direct sales force, as well as through a network of authorized agents and distributors in the United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Japan, Hong Kong, and Macau. The company is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.

Source: FinViz.com, April 2013

magnachip semiconductor corp mx1
MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp (MX)

POSITIVES:MagnaChip is a leading designer and manufacturer of analog and mixed signal semiconductor products. These chips are a main driving force behind touch solutions for mobile phones and PC applications.

Possible concerns:The company has a high receivables rate. As a percentage of current assets it’s sitting around 35.88%

Sources: PR Newswire, February 2013

Seeking Alpha, February 2013

slide48

April 2013 Stock Picks

Industry:

Semiconductors

As of March 28, 2013 - Subject to change.

slide65

SWAPS & “SPREADS”

IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL

slide66

CREDIT ANTICIPATES – EQUITY CONFIRMS

*Note: Status = No impact

Status = Negative Impact

As Of: 4/17/2013

slide68

UNDERSTANDING EMOTION IN THE MARKET

  • PROCESS DESIGNED IN 1995 TO CYCLES IN THE TECH MARKET
  • IDEA WAS TO EXPLAIN PRODUCT CYCLES
  • AND DETERMINE IF A PARTICULAR TECHNOLOGY WAS “READY”
  • SINCE THEN – APPLIED TO DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES
  • COULD WELL BE APPLIED TO MARKETS
  • GET’S TO THE HEART OF OVER-ENTHUSIASM
  • POINTS TO PROCESS

Source: Gartner Research

slide69

UNDERSTANDING EMOTION IN THE MARKET

Source: Gartner Research

slide70

QUESTIONS & COMMENTS

THANKS FOR JOINING US!

slide71

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

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