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Reconstructing Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Social Vulnerability Los Angeles (1940-2000) Zaria Tatalovich John P. Wilson. Context. Part of larger Risk Transference Project in domain of vulnerability science Objective to understand what makes people and places vulnerable to extreme events

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slide1
Reconstructing Spatio-Temporal

Patterns of Social Vulnerability

Los Angeles (1940-2000)

Zaria Tatalovich

John P. Wilson

context
Context
  • Part of larger Risk Transference Project in domain of vulnerability science
  • Objective to understand what makes people and places vulnerable to extreme events
  • Develop new methods and models for measurement of vulnerability
  • How well can we model vulnerability across space and time?
  • What are advantages of proposed model to understanding what makes people and places vulnerable?

Zaria Tatalovich

February 2006

social vulnerability index
Social Vulnerability Index
  • Social vulnerability - extent to which society is exposed to shock brought about by economic, environmental, government policy changes or combination of factors
  • Calculate Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) based on set of social variables
  • Advantage of SVI - can be used to represent complex phenomena in a format which permits easy comparison over time

Zaria Tatalovich

February 2006

calculating svi
Calculating SVI

Population and structure

  • Calculate Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for each decade 1940-2000

based on 6 social indicators (variables):

    • Population
    • Housing Units
    • Non-White Population
    • Below College Education
    • Median Value of Housing Unit
    • Blue Collar Occupation
  • Data Source: Los Angeles County Union

Census Tract Data Series, 1940 -1990

(Ethington et al. 2000)

  • Re-aggregate historical census data

to Census 2000 boundaries

    • Calculate proportion of Census tracts enclosed

in each of 2000 tracts and allocating variables

accordingly

Factors that

influence SV

Differential access to resources

Wealth/Poverty

1000 people

100 km²

700 people

70 km²

300 people

30 km²

1990

2000

vulnerability to specific event
Social

Vulnerability

+

Hazardous

Event

Vulnerability to Specific Event

Earthquake Scenario (HAZUS-MH): Northridge 1994

vulnerability to specific event cont
Vulnerability to Specific Event (cont.)

Social Vulnerability (SV)

SV + PGA

combining physical and social vulnerability
Combining Physical and Social Vulnerability

Biophysical

Vulnerability

Social

Vulnerability

Place

Vulnerability

+

+

=

Hazardous

Event

work ahead
Work Ahead
  • Integrate biophysical risk (e.g. frequency of hazardous events) with social risk to understand place-based composite vulnerability
  • Run several existing HAZUS earthquake scenarios in each decade 1940-2000
    • Reconstruct building inventory 1940-2000 for input to HAZUS
  • Compare historical trends in vulnerability to earthquakes
  • Predict future risk
acknowledgements
Acknowledgements

Place-Based Decision Support for Spatial and Temporal Transference of Risk and Hazards

John Wilson

GIS Research Laboratory

Thomas Jordan

Southern California Earthquake Center

Jennifer Swift

Civil & Environmental Engineering

Mark Benthien Earth Sciences

Zaria Tatalovich Geography

Susan Cutter

Hazards Research Lab

Madilyn Fletcher Marine Sciences

Cary Mock Geography

Walter Piegorsch Statistics

John Rose Computer Science & Engineering

John Shafer Earth Sciences and Resources Institute

Matt Schmidtlein

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