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LISFLOOD

Development and pre-operational testing of a European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Ad de Roo EC, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra (I). LISFLOOD system. Meteo data ECMWF DWD DMI…. River basin management. River basin management. LISFLOOD. JRC European Data Soil, Surface,

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LISFLOOD

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  1. Developmentandpre-operational testingof aEuropean Flood Alert System(EFAS)Ad de RooEC, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra (I)

  2. LISFLOOD system • Meteo data • ECMWF • DWD • DMI… River basin management River basin management LISFLOOD • JRC European Data • Soil, Surface, • river catchment • system, … Flood simulation & forecasting • Member States data • River dimensions, • Alert levels

  3. Why a European Flood Alert System? • Early flood alert information to NWA (3+ days, max 10) to complement MS WA systems • Catchment based (information from upstream catchment) • Probabilistic approach using different weather forecasts and ensemble weather forecasts (EPS) • Overview and monitoring of flood situation in Europe • Potential backup for national systems • EFAS progress • Feasibility study EFFS (2000-2003) • Elbe and Danube floods (2002) triggered pre-operational testing • Development and testing of EFAS prototype (2003-2006) • Transfer to operational service (MS, ECMWF, other, ???) (> 2006)

  4. EFAS setup • European catchments > 2000 km2 on a 5 km grid • Selected transnational catchments on a 1 km grid (Danube, Elbe, Meuse, Oder) • LISFLOOD model • hourly time step • forecast run on arrival of meteo forecasts (00&12) • Input data • 2xDWD (GME+LM), 7 days • 2xECMWF – Deterministic, 10 days • 51x2 ECMWF EPS, 10 days • observed meteo data • Tests with COSMO-LEPS, 5 days

  5. Technical set-up

  6. European Flood Alert System:Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004 Rainfall forecasted CZ SK Flood problems forecasted A HU RU Black Sea Low flood risk Medium flood risk High flood risk Extreme flood risk Alert send on 30 July; Floods confirmed by Rumanians on 3-4 August Adriatic Sea BG Siret, Rumania

  7. Distribution of information from the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

  8. EFAS way forward • Pre-operational testing until >2006 • Feedback thru: • ECWMF agreement (link to NMS’s) • EFAS network with NWA (thru MoU) • Elbe (IKSE) and Danube (ICPDR) commission, flood WG/ FAP • Flood forecasting exchange circle (F-JRC) • Continued R&D: • JRC workprogramme • IP PREVIEW, IP FLOODSITE, (EFFS) • Establishing proper data exchange environment: • European Parliament support thru DG ENV • DG Enterprise IDA-BC programme • After >2006, transfer to ??

  9. Thank you ad.de-roo@jrc.it

  10. THE LISFLOOD MODEL • specifically developed to simulate floods in large European river basins • spatially distributed and grid-based • enabling the spatial variation of land use, soil properties and precipitation COMBINATION OF GRID-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL + 1D HYDRODYNAMIC CHANNEL FLOW ROUTING MODEL SPECIAL FEATURES (RESERVOIR OPERATIONS, LAKES, POLDERS) USING INITIAL CONDITIONS OBTAINED USING WATER BALANCE MODEL MODEL INPUT • soil data, land use, topography and channel dimensions • meteorological variables as rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and temperature MODEL OUTPUT • the main output is river discharge • any calculated variable can be reported as either maps, time series of maps or time series at selected point locations

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