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National Cooperative Highway Research Program

National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Impacts 2050 NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation— The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand. End of the Car Culture?.

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National Cooperative Highway Research Program

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  1. National Cooperative Highway Research Program Impacts 2050 NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand

  2. End of the Car Culture? The total number of miles driven in the US peaked in 2006 at 2.647 trillion.  In 2011, the total number of miles driven was 5% lower.  Miles driven per person and per vehicle peaked in 2004, and by 2011 had dropped by nearly 9% and 5%, respectively. (UMTRI-2013-20 July 2013)

  3. Long-Range Planning As models are run further into future, precision becomes challenging Uncertainty in exogenous inputs Uncertainty in model relationships Time Variety of relationships that could be important

  4. Socio-Demographic Trends Driving Uncertainty

  5. Next 100 Million Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Projections of the Total Population for the U.S.: 2010-2050 (millions) • US population growing at higher rate than rest of world’s developed nations • Growth rate is slowing, but to what degree • Increase in total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “The Next Four Decades, The Older Population in the U.S. 2010-2050.” Population Estimates and projections, P25-1138, May 2010, pg.1. A http///www.census.gov/prod/2010publs/p2501138.pdf

  6. Graying of America Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Percent of U.S. Population by Age Group, 1990-2010 • Significant increase in population age 65+ due to Baby Boomers • How will Baby Boomers travel patterns change • Decrease in VMT per capita • Decrease in work trips • Decrease in transit use • Decrease in vehicle ownership Source: Brownell, Peter, Thomas Light, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras, NidhiKalra, and Jan Osburg. 2013. The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for the United States in 2030, Appendixes C–G. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246

  7. Browning of America Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Population by Race and Ethnicity(% of Total) • White, non-Hispanic share of US population declining • Majority of America’s children are of color • Increase in VMT per capita • Increase carpooling, walking,public transit use • Increase in vehicle age • Travel behavior as people acculturate or are new mainstream • Future foreign-born percent Projected Note: All races are non-Hispanic; American Indian/Alaska Native not shown. Source: Passel, J., and D’V. Cohn. February 2008. U.S. Population Projections: 2005–2050. Pew Research Center, Washington, DC. http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85/pdf; Census Bureau 2011 population estimates.

  8. Changing American Workforce Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Civilian Labor Force by Age(Millions) • Workforce is growing older and more diverse • Labor-force participation rate declining • Decrease in VMT per capita • Increase in work-related VMT • Long-term effects of recession, technology on productivity, Hispanics on labor participation rate Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review, December 2013; Toossi, M. December 2013. “Labor Force Projections to 2022: The Labor Force Participation Rate Continues to Fall.” Monthly Labor Review. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/pdf/labor-force-projections-to-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.pdf

  9. Blurring City and Suburb Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties • Both cities and suburbs home to employers and residences • Inner-ring suburbs havingdensity changes similar to center city • Decrease in VMT per capita • Increase in non-motorized trips • Increase in transit trips • Long-term demand forsuburban urbanity Map by Zara Matheson, Martin Prosperity Institute Data Source: http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/1128_walkableurbanisim_leinberger.aspx

  10. Slow Growth in Households Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties • Marriage rates are declining, depressing household formation and households with children • Increasing numbers of Americans are living in someone else’s home • Influence of economic recession and Millennial lifestage • Decrease in VMT per capita • Decrease in auto ownership • Increase in car pooling • Increase in transit use

  11. Generation C Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties • Demand for connected devices • Gen C = hyperlinked • Super-Cs spent entire lives with digital devices • Decrease in VMT per capita • Decrease in auto ownership • What will be transportationneeds and expectations of Super-Cs?

  12. Salience of Environment Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Trends in Per-Capita Vehicle-Miles Traveled and Real Gross Domestic Product • Stronger sense of concern for environment among Millennials than other generations • Influence of Millennial’s lifestage • Decrease in VMT per capita • Decrease in auto ownership • Increase non-motorized mode use • Increase in transit use Vehicle-miles traveled: see note 2; population statistics: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Population Estimates, downloaded from www.census.gov/ popest/data/historical/index.html (for 1970-2011), and U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States,2003, Table HS-1 (1936-1969); gross domestic product (chained 2005 dollars): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,Current-Dollar and “Real” Gross Domestic Product (Excel spreadsheet), 29 November 2012.

  13. …of these Trends on Future Travel Demand? What is the Impact… Conflicting Evolving Incomplete

  14. Our Approach: Impacts 2050 • Tool for applying scenario approach for handling uncertainty • 4 Scenarios for visioning the future • System dynamics model that represents links between population, land use, employment, and travel behavior • Enables users to: • Examine socio-demographic trends and impact on travel demand • Be in position to account for these trends in forecasts and plans • Examine policy or other interventions that might offset trends

  15. Impacts 2050: 4 Scenarios

  16. Impacts 2050: System Dynamics Model

  17. User-Friendly Spreadsheet Model

  18. Impacts 2050: Scenario Worksheets

  19. Momentum Scenario: Atlanta Population by Age Group

  20. Momentum Scenario: Atlanta Daily Work Trips by Mode

  21. Gentle Footprint Scenario: Atlanta Population by Age Group

  22. Gentle Footprint Scenario: Atlanta Daily Work Trips by Mode

  23. Enhanced Planning Approach

  24. Doing Better Long-Range Planning • Study products prompt change in thinking • Output is less important than process of interacting with model • Future reality is better understood by exploring multiple plausible future scenarios • Shift to thinking strategically which is more aligned with 21st century types of problems and environments

  25. How to Obtain Research Products • Full Report (NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand) • Research Brief • Impacts 2050 Tool • Impacts 2050 User Guide

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