ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO GENERATOR (ESG)

1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO GENERATOR (ESG) Tom Kotz Technical Director

2. Purpose • Explain the Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG)

3. Overview • What is ESG? • How ESG Works • ESG Products

4. Behaviors Environment Processes Climate Illumination Course of Action Weather Flight Routes Transmittance Natural Line of Sight Route Selection Hydrologic Cycle Visibility Sensors Sea State Decision Makers Weapon Effects Surface and Subsurface Flows Mobility Acoustic Tracking Ocean Parameters Terrain surface and Features The Same Climate Physical Parameters Course of Action Weather Models Flight Routes Route Selection Line of Sight Sea State Behavior Models Synthetic Dynamic Terrain Visibility Weapon Effects Hydrologic Modeling Mobility Acoustic Tracking Ocean Models Elevation Features Bathymetry What is ESG?

5. https://esg.afccc.af.mil/ What is ESG? • Scenario Search Mechanism • Rapidly searches historical archives • Weapon System Impacts • Fuzzy-Logic Classification • Interactive Data Analysis • Produce Realistic Data Sets • High-Quality data and models • Recreate historic scenarios • Customized post-processing • Standard/Custom formats • Can request 14th WS support or request a user account

6. Databases • ACMES • NCEP/NCAR • MODAS • WW3 • Space Archives • Previous Products • Customer Request • Conditions • Place/Time • Parameters • Resolution • Format • Subject Matter Expert • (SME) Processing • Search for Scenario • Identify Data Source • Verify Data Output • Check Format • Scenarios in • Various Formats • SEDRIS • GRIB • Binary • CSV • PRF • Other How ESG Works • ESG Process “Wet and windy” “Korea in winter” “Temp, humidity, winds” “40km, hourly for 3 months” “CSV, GRIB, SEDRIS”

7. M&S Support Using ESG

8. Environmental data (18-month atmospheric at 6-hour intervals with 1-degree resolution) helped identify effects of weather on ISR and refueling ops. LPD-17 using authoritative atmospheric data to determine probability of raid annihilation. Ensured consistent environment for distributed simulations. OSD(PA&E) and AF/A5XS incorporating atmospheric and ocean data into THUNDER campaign analysis simulation to analyze various Courses of Action. Army used data to determine Grizzly antimine vehicle performed poorly in muddy conditions. Ultimately led to project cancellation saving millions in development and production costs. Taught F-35 team member how to use ESG to generate environmental representations. Facilitates M&S testing outside the scope of live testing. Aeronautical Systems Center (ASC) using data to determine how capable future systems are under various environmental scenarios. ESG Products • Environmental Representations • Scenarios or Data Sets (Standard and Customer-unique)

9. ESG Products • Environmental Representations • Pseudo Observations • Text and JMIBL formats METAR RJCW 130006Z 26017KT 5000 -SHSN FEW007 SCT010 BKN020CB M03/M06 Q1004 RMK 2ST007 4ST010 7CB020 A2965 CB ALL QUAD <?xml version="1.0" ?> - <urn:JMO_obsList xmlns:urn="urn:metoc:jmcbl:jmibl"> - <urn:JMO_obs urn:horizontalDatum="WGE" urn:latitude="45.4" urn:longitude="141.8" urn:networkType="ICAO" urn:observationTime="20060213000600" urn:platformHeight="11.0" urn:platformId="RJCW" urn:reportTypeCode="FM-16" urn:securityId="1" urn:stationMode="1" urn:verticalDatum="MSL"> <urn:JMO_surfaceObs urn:airTemperature="-3.0" urn:altimeterSetting="1004.1" urn:cloudCavok="N" urn:cloudCeiling="610" urn:cloudCover="07" urn:dewPointTemperature="-6.0" urn:windConditions="N" urn:windDirection="260" urn:windMeasurementMode="4" urn:windSpeed="8.7" /> <urn:JMO_cloudLayerObs urn:cloudBaseHeight="213" urn:cloudCover="02" urn:cloudLayerId="1" urn:verticalDatum="AGL" /> <urn:JMO_cloudLayerObs urn:cloudBaseHeight="305" urn:cloudCover="04" urn:cloudLayerId="2" urn:verticalDatum="AGL" /> <urn:JMO_cloudLayerObs urn:cloudBaseHeight="610" urn:cloudCover="07" urn:cloudLayerId="3" urn:verticalDatum="AGL" /> <urn:JMO_remarks urn:remarks="2ST007 4ST010 7CB020 A2965 CB ALL QUAD;" /> <urn:JMO_visibilityObs urn:occurrenceId="1" urn:supLocationCode="S" urn:visibility="5000" urn:visibilityType="P" /> <urn:JMO_message urn:bbbStatus="I" urn:messageSequenceId="1" urn:originalMessage="METAR RJCW 130006Z 26017KT 5000 -SHSN FEW007 SCT010 BKN020CB M03/M06 Q1004 RMK 2ST007 4ST010 7CB020 A2965 CB ALL QUAD;" urn:receiptDtg="20060213001644" urn:securityId="1" /> </urn:JMO_obsList>

10. ESG Products • Environmental Representations • Pseudo Observations • Pseudo Satellite and Radar Images

11. ESG Products • Environmental Representations • Pseudo Observations • Pseudo Satellite and Radar Images • Graphics • Verifies data • Can be used as pseudo “Forecaster-in-the-loop” (FITL) products or as a source to produce them

12. ESG Products • Environmental Representations • Pseudo Observations • Pseudo Satellite and Radar Images • Graphics • Effects • Environmental Hypercube

13. ESG Products (Future) • Space Environmental Integration System (SEIS) • Generate space data set based on desired effects • TAF (Text and JMIBL) • GUI (Generate Data and Effects) • Weather and Effects Server KFBG 090539Z 090606 16015G25KT 9999 SCT050 TEMPO 0912 3200 -SHRA BKN050 OVC100 BECMG 1214 22012KT 9999 SCT100 TEMPO 1421 8000 –SHRA BKN030

14. Summary • ESG enables models and simulations (M&S) to produce effects resulting from the environment • Current customers include wide-ranging interests and uses • ESG products suited to M&S, but have other uses • Ongoing projects add power and versatility to ESG

15. Questions