Challenges in Predicting, Mitigating, and Responding to Drought

1. Challenges in Predicting, Mitigating, and Responding to Drought National Academy of Sciences Chandra S. Pathak, PhD, PE, D.WRE, F.ASCE Hydrology Hydraulics & Coastal Community of Practice Engineering and Construction Division US Army Corps of Engineers – Headquarters Washington DC Nov 7, 2013 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG®

2. USACE Mission Areas BUILDING STRONG Military Programs Homeland Security • MILCON for Modular Force • Global Positioning • BRAC 05 • Field Force Engineering • MILCON Transformation • Environmental Restoration Civil Works • Critical Infrastructure • Water Supply, Navigation • Flood Risk Management • Regulatory, Hydropower • Recreation, Disaster Response • Environmental Restoration • Anti Terrorism Plans • Intelligence • Facility Security Partnership Real Estate Interagency Support Research & Development • Water Resources • Environment • Installations • Warfighter • Federal • State • Local • International • DOD Recruiting Facilities • Contingency Operations • Acquire, Manage and • Dispose BUILDING STRONG®

3. Infrastructure in USACE • Portfolio Stats: • Very Large • Aging (+55 years) • Relatively untested • Geotechnical Challenges Dominate 702 Dams “Infrastructure follows Floods, People Follow Infrastructure” +2,500 Levee Systems

4. USACE - Our Mission:Regulate Reservoirs to Support Congressionally Authorized Purposes

5. Flood Risk Management Low Flow Augmentation for Navigation & Water Quality Secondary Water Supply Hydropower Recreation Fish & Wildlife Conservation Primary Dams/Reservoirs Project Purposes

6. INDUCED SURCHARGE POOL FLOOD CONTROL POOL CONSERVATION POOL (Water Supply, Hydropower….) INACTIVE POOL Storage Zones Tainter Gate DAM

7. Water Control Manuals • The main purpose of a manual is for day-to-day use in water control for essentially all foreseeable conditions affecting a project or a system • Division and district commanders will develop water control plans as required by Section 7 of the 1944 Flood Control Act, the Federal Power Act and Section 9 of Public Law 436-83 for all projects located within their areas, in conformance with ER 1110-2-240 • They must be prepared in compliance with the guidelines presented in : • Engineering Regulation ER 1110-2-240, Water Control Management • Engineering Manual EM 1110-2-3600, Management of Water Control System • Engineering Regulation ER 1110-2-8156, Preparation of Water Control Manuals • Environmental Operating Principals ER 200-1-5.

8. Drought Operations • Drought... abnormally dry and/or unusually warm weather sufficiently prolonged for the corresponding deficiency of water to cause a "serious hydrologic imbalance“ • Reservoirs: Every reservoir has a Drought Contingency Plan which provides for releases for downstream communities. • Mississippi River Locks: Typically there are no drought operations; inflow = outflow.

9. Challenges, Issues and Concerns • Aging infrastructure – during rehab reduced storage capacity for floods and droughts • Climate change – frequent floods and droughts • Increase flexibility of systems operations through revision and updating of water control manuals • Need more accurate (reduced uncertainty) short-term and long-term forecast for rainfall and drought from NWS/NOAA to improve water management operations and planning.

10. Questions?

11. BACK UP Slides

12. U.S. Drought Forecast

13. Precipitation Outlook

14. 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)

15. National Gauging Program

16. Water Supply • The Corps can enter into Water Supply agreements for municipal or industrial use. • The Corps can also enter minor water supply agreements during State declared droughts. • Water Supply accounts for a minimal amount of storage in Corps Lakes.