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Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean 5 th International Ice Charting Working Group Meeting 19 – 23 April 2004. Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska.net. Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany (BSH) Hamburg, Germany.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean5th International Ice Charting Working Group Meeting 19 – 23 April 2004
  • Lawson Brigham
  • Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission
  • usarc@acsalaska.net

Federal Maritime and Hydrographic

Agency of Germany (BSH)

Hamburg, Germany

arctic climate impact assessment acia project of the arctic council
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council
  • - Evaluate: climate variability, climate change,   and increased UV and their consequences- Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models
  • (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios- Project future Arctic changes for:   2020, 2050, and 2080- Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries- Scientific report & synthesis released early 2005
the arctic s response to climate change from acia
“The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change”(from ACIA)
  • Increases in winter surface air temperatures
  • Increases in precipitation
  • Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground
  • Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness
  • Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems
  • Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion
  • Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean
  • Warming of Arctic oceanic waters
  • Record low levels of stratospheric ozone
  • Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation
slide4

Sea Ice

  • Observational data show
  • a decrease of coverage
  • Decrease is
  • largest in
  • summer
  • Decrease is
  • largest since
  • late 1980s

Sea Ice Extent (km2)

slide7

16 Sept. 2002

16 Sept. 2003

challenges of the canadian archipelago and the northwest passage
Challenges of the Canadian Archipelagoand the Northwest Passage
  • GCM resolution constraints
  • High interannual variability of ice coverage
regional eastern arctic
Regional Eastern Arctic

Km2)

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

regional eastern arctic1
Regional Eastern Arctic

l

km2

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

regional western arctic
Regional Western Arctic

(km2)

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

slide13

Climate model projections of sea ice extent :

2000 - 2100

March

September

MAR

SEPT

slide18

Northern Sea Route :

Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100

Year

summary points
Summary Points
  • -  Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real.-  GCMs indicate steadily increasing surface air temperatures    in the Arctic.- Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic
  • Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century.- Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing
  • length of the navigation season.- Possibility for marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in
  • summer by 2050.- Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging;
  • testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic
  • regional models.- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic
  • climate  trends & consequences.
relevant upcoming events
Relevant Upcoming Events
  • ACIA Symposium (9-12 November 2004)
  • ACIA & Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (Ministerial, 15-18 November 2004)
  • Experts Meeting: Scott Polar Research Institute (September 2004)
  • International Conference - Future Arctic Marine Transport (Anchorage, Spring/Summer 2005)