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Introduction

Introduction. Model. LH Yields. MS - REG. Elasticity. Next steps. Improvement of the Dairy and Beef sub-module. MODELISATION. Introduction. Model. LH Yields. MS - REG. Elasticity. Next steps.

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Introduction

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  1. Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Improvement of the Dairy and Beef sub-module

  2. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Livestock supply flows for EU countries and regions (90-99): improvement of the information system for all the animals activities, inclusion of COMEXT database. Livestock net domestic production Split up yields in low and high (MEAT, MILK) Definition of supply elasticities for livestock

  3. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps NEW CRONOS REGIO COMEXT EXPERT DATA COMEXT.GMS CORRECT NEW CRONOS MATCH COMEXT-NEW CRONOS FLOW_ANIM.GMS

  4. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  5. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF • LEVL = Herd Size t-1 • Replacement and Discarded RATES • Male and Female Calves Production (REGIO Herd Size) • Same coefficients for DCOW and SCOW CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  6. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS • GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0) • GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt • LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt + STCF t (If > 0) • NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0) • Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too) • Estimation of NETF HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  7. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS HEIR COWS • GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0) • GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt • LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt + STCFt (If > 0) • NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0) • Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too) • Estimation of NETF CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  8. MODELISATION • GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0) • GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,FCALt • LEVLt = GROF,YHEIt+1 + STCFt (If > 0) • NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0) • Redefine GROF • Estimation of NETF Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  9. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps • GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0) • GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,MCALt • LEVLt = GROF,YBULt+1 + STCFt (If > 0) • NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0) • Redefine GROF • Estimation of NETF CAFF CAMF COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  10. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF • LEVLt = YCOWt+1 + STCFt (If > 0) • GROFt = LEVLt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If <0) CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  11. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF • LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt t+1 t+2 t

  12. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF • LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt CAMF COWS HEIR COWS CAFR HEIF CAMR BULF t+1 t+2 t

  13. MODELISATION FATTENING PROCESSES: beef, heifers, sheep & pigs HERD DIMENSION MEAT MODEL SLGH Young animals LEVL = SLGH - IMPL + EXPL O coefficient (meat yield), I coefficient (feed, …), nutrients & GHGs output LEVW = (SLGH - IMPL) + IMPL * α + EXPL * β GROF = SLGT - IMPT + EXPT

  14. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps LEVL = SLGH - IMPL + EXPL EXPL x (EXWT -INIW) / (FINW -INIW) IMPL x (FINW -IMWT) / (FINW - INIW) SLGH - IMPL LEVW = + +

  15. MODELISATION Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

  16. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Estimation of activity level and yields (light and heavy final weights) for adult cattle Light and heavy final weights depend on genetics and production system Scarce information and similar probabilities Engineering and production system information: final weights (min-max), stock density, daily growth, and herd composition

  17. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps FINAL WEIGHTS STOCK DENSITY DAILY GROWTH HERD COMPOSITION Support Points A Priori Probabilities Max - ∑i pi ln (pi / qi) where: i: number of support points p: posterior probabilities q: a priori probabilities sum of pi and sum of qi equal to one

  18. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Max H(p) = - ∑i ∑n pi,n ln (pi,n / qi,n)p s.t. ∑n SLGHn,m E[MEATn] = SLGTm E[MEATn] = ∑i SMEATi,n pi,n ∑n SLGHn,m = SLGHm ∑n IMPLn,m = IMPLm ∑n EXPLn,m = EXPLm SLGHn = GROF.HEADn + PIMLn – PEXLn + ADJn where: n: number of adult cattle sub-categories (light and heavy final weight) m: number of adult cattle categories (beef and heifers) MEAT: estimated parameter (final carcass weight) SMEAT: possible outcomes (support points) ADJ: shift factor between adult cattle sub-categories sum of pi and sum of qi equal to one

  19. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF HEIR COWS COWS COWS CAFR HEIL HEIH CAMR BEFL BEFH t+1 t+2 t

  20. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps RESULTS FOR BEFH AND BEFL

  21. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF HEIR COWS COWS COWS CAFR-L HEIL CAFR-H HEIH CAMR-L BEFL CAMR-H BEFH t+1 t+2 t

  22. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Split up male and female calves for rearing into light and heavy weight ones: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAFR-H, CAMR-L, CAMR-H, CAFR. A four stages system to assign calves to cows: DCOW-HIGH-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAMR-L, CAFR DCOW-LOW-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR SCOW: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR The gross male-female calves production, and the cows replacement rate are respected.

  23. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps CAFF CAMF DCOW-L DCOW-H SCOW HEIR COWS COWS CAFR-L HEIL CAFR-H HEIH CAMR-L BEFL CAMR-H BEFH Use the detailed calves production and the number of calves per cow t+1 t+2 t

  24. SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps DCOL.MILK = DCOW.MILK x 0.6 DCOH.MILK = (GROF.MILK - DCOL.MILK * DCOL.LEVL) / DCOH.LEVL

  25. FROM MS TO REGIONS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Use MS reproductive coefficients Estimate the regional trade: heads and weights Estimate the regional LEVL according to production system: FPMS,i : BREDMS,i = FPRU,i : BREDRU,i where: MS = member state RU = region i = livestock fattening activity FP = length of the fattening period BRED = number of yearly production cycles LEVL = animal activity level HERD = herd size at the end of the year

  26. FROM MS TO REGIONS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps Beef activity level (.000 heads) and yields (carcass weight, kg / head)

  27. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps MEAT and MILK SUPPLY PRICE ELASTICITY: LITERATURE SEARCH DIFFERENT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FORMS, USUALLY LINEAR (OLS) - Tryfos: slaughtered heads in function of current livestock herd size, expected prices and feed costs; - Nerlove and Fornari: supply meat (beef & heifers) in function of: final stocks, current and future prices valued with quasi-rational expectation; - Moro and Canali: explanatory variables producer prices and feed cost

  28. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps • OWN ESTIMATIONS: range of LT & ST elasticity through OLS linear regression • TIME SERIES: FAOSTAT yearly data (EUROSTAT - CAPRI: dairy cows and price deflator) • 4 LIVESTOCK • 5 COUNTRIES: same functional form • 2 FORMS tested for cattle and pork

  29. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps SUPPLY ELASTICITY CATTLE, PORK model a) LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et model b) ln(LEVL)t= a + bt ln(PRIC)t-1+ et where : LEVL = slaughtered heads HERD = herd size at the end of the year PRIC = deflated meat production price NTRD = animal net trade flow (import - export) et ~N(0, 1)

  30. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps SUPPLY ELASTICITY DAIRY COWS LEVL t = a + b1tYILDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et where : LEVL = herd size (Eurostat, CAPRI) YILD = production yield (Eurostat, CAPRI) PRIC = deflated milk production price NTRD = milk net trade (import – export) et ~N(0, 1)

  31. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps SUPPLY ELASTICITY SHEEP LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + et where : LEVL = slaughtered heads HERD = herd size at the end of the year PRIC = deflated meat production price et ~N(0, 1)

  32. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps ELASTICITY MODEL (a)

  33. SUPPLY ELASTICITIES Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps COMPARISON MODEL (a) – MODEL (b) CATTLE PORK

  34. FURTHER STEPS Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps • Livestock statistics: cover gaps and correct bugs • LEVW for male and female rearing calves • STCF for all the animals categories • CE: import / export weights for light and heavy cattle • Availability of official statistics on regional meat • Elasticities: comparison with other models results

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