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CUBAN MITIGATION EXPERIENCES DR. JUAN LLANES-REGUEIRO, HAVANA UNIVERSITY, COORDINATOR CUBAN COUNTRY MITIGATION TEAM
THE TEAM: DR. JUAN LLANES-REGUEIRO Economist, LA 4AR WG III, RA 4AR, WGII, IPCC DR. ADRIANO GRACIA, Economist, National Institute for Economic Research (NIER), Macro Scenarios DR. JOSE SOMOZA, Nuclear Engineer, Specialist on Statistics, Economist, (NIER), Macro models DR. JUAN F. ZUÑIGA ElectricEngineer, Specialistfor System Analysis and Modelling. Lic. JULIO TORRES, Energy Analist, Researcher at the National Observatory for Science and Technology
MAIN TASK: • EXPLORE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ISSUES • EXPLORE POSSIBLE FUTURE CONSTRAINTS FOR SOCIOECOMOMIC DEVELOPMENT • TURN CONSTRAINTS INTO OPPORTTUNITIES • DEVELOP ACCURATE TOOLS FOR MITIGATION ASSESSMENT
SOCIOECONOMIC NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT GHG INVENTORY MACRO SCENARIOS SECTORAL SCENARIOS BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS
LINKS MACRO SCENARIOS- INVENTORY Emissions inventory Medium term sce. Long term sce. Source categories 52 31 16 Emission indicators 453 107 38 Why? Integration of results from national inventories on HGH emissions with scenarios allowed to increase rigor and precision and the identification of new potential trends that should attain importance in the future permit feedback
Macro Scenarios 2005- 2030 (storylines and quantitative assessment): • Oil intensive, high economic development • Oil intensive, low economic development • Non fossil-fuels intensive • Baseline • Balanced energy supply • Main outcomes: • Emission intensity of GDP, selected sectors and activities for each scenario, percapita emissions. • Elasticity of growth to GDP for selected sectors and activities • Emissions factors for several sectors that where included into each scenario, (electricity, transportation, oil, mining, etc.) • Policy ideas for mitigation programs and strategies • CDM policies • TOOLS:ENPEP, LEAP, DECADES, MAED, PRODOM O.O, and • NAIADE, (multicriteria based on set of criteria and information affected by different types and degrees of uncertainty )
Bottom-up assessment: Three steps • Design of a software for bottom-up mitigation options and CDM. • Module for calculation of emissions factors • Link the software with co-benefits (savings in investment, benefits from change in environmental quality, co-benefits of afforestation, etc.)