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Lessons from Ireland's 1976 Drought: Agricultural Policy and Climate Adaptation

Explore the impact of Ireland's hot, dry summer of 1976 on agricultural output and incomes, and the policy responses that can inform climate adaptation strategies today.

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Lessons from Ireland's 1976 Drought: Agricultural Policy and Climate Adaptation

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  1. Agricultural Policy Lessons for Ireland from the Hot, Dry Summer of 1976 Dr David R. Stead University College Dublin david.stead@ucd.ie

  2. Outline • Selection of case study & context • Description of the anomalous weather • Impact on Irish agricultural output & incomes • Agricultural policy responses • Policy lessons for the present day

  3. Outline • Selection of case study & context • Description of the anomalous weather • Impact on Irish agricultural output & incomes • Agricultural policy responses • Policy lessons for the present day

  4. Effects of Simple Shift of Distribution Towards a Warmer Climate • Apparent outlook for the Republic of Ireland of an increased incidence of heat waves & possibly of dry summers (Irish Committee on Climate Change 2007; Desmond et al. 2009; Gleeson et al. 2013) Source: IPCC (2012)

  5. Current Irish Policy Debates • Provision of water services (Brady & Gray 2010; Reeves 2011; Department of the Environment 2012a) • Management of severe weather events (Joint Committee on the Environment 2010; Hickey 2010; Department of the Environment 2012b) • Risk management in farming (Boyle et al. 2005; Anon. 2009; Irish Farmers’ Association 2010) • Food poverty (Maître et al. 2011; Dowler & O’Connor 2012; Kelly et al. 2012) • Past experience of extreme weather events helpful for developing risk management & climate change adaptation policies (e.g. Martin 2010a; Bassino and Van Der Eng 2010; Libecap and Steckel 2011)

  6. Existing Literature • No previous extensive political economy study of Irish agriculture’s experiences in 1976 • Minimal coverage across Moody et al. (1982); Dooge (1985); Lee (1989); Daly (2002); Keogh (2003); Kiely et al. (2010); Sweeney (2010); Brennan (2012); Ferriter (2012); Hennessy & Kinsella (2013) • vs. Carter (1978); Morren (1980); Kay (2004); Martin (2010b) for Britain • Antonym has received more attention • Dickson (1997); Hickey (2010); Kearns (2011)

  7. Outline • Selection of case study & context • Description of the anomalous weather • Impact on Irish agricultural output & incomes • Agricultural policy responses • Policy lessons for the present day

  8. Chronology • Part of a longer, wider anomalous weather pattern (Morris & Ratcliffe 1976; Ratcliffe 1978) • Oct 1974 to early Sept 1976 • Ireland’s ‘dry period’ (Met. Service memo 1979) • 29 June 1976 • National 20th century record air temperature of 32.5°C at Boora, Co. Offaly • c. 16 July to 7 Sept 1976 • Main drought period of the year (Met. Service memo 1979; MacCárthaigh 1992, 1996) • Mid-Aug 1976 • Some localized water restrictions began (Irish Times 1976)

  9. Rainfall April to Aug 1976 As % of long-term average (1941-70) Source: Met. Service internal memo (1979)

  10. Estimated Annual Water Deficit 1976(potential minus actual evapotranspiration, mm) Source: Mills (2000)

  11. Outline • Selection of case study & context • Description of the anomalous weather • Impact on Irish agricultural output & incomes • Agricultural policy responses • Policy lessons for the present day

  12. Real Gross Value Added in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Ireland, 1972-86 Real Aggregate Income from Self-Employment in Agriculture, Ireland, 1970-98 Source: Matthews (2000) Source: Quill and Teahon (2009/10)

  13. % Change in 1976 Crop Yields Sources: Irish Statistical Bulletin, various issues Notes: a excluding ‘diseased’ potatoes

  14. % Change in 1976 Crop Yields Sources: Irish Statistical Bulletin, various issues; Carter (1978) Notes: a excluding ‘diseased’ potatoes; b main crop only

  15. Estimated Annual % Decline in National Vegetable Production Volumes, 1975-6 Source: National Archives of Ireland, Department of Foreign Affairs 2010/19/699

  16. Some Estimated Impacts of Moisture Stress on Irish Farm Production, 1976 Sources: Mills (2000); Hennerty and Maher (2004)

  17. Impact on Livestock Sector • Large rise in purchased animal feed (CSO 1977, 1978) • No pronounced increase in premature slaughtering or reduction in animal weights • Little clear increase in relative slaughtering during summer 1976 vs 1975 (except in June & for pigs) • National monthly data for cattle, calves, sheep & pigs (CSO StatBank) • Mean weight of export beef per head of cattle slaughtered: -5.9% (Department of Agriculture 1977) • National milk yield per dairy cow: +4.9% (CSO 1978)

  18. % Change in Monthly Irish Intake of Creamery Milk, 1975-6 Source: CSO StatBank

  19. % Change in Monthly Irish Intake of Creamery Milk & British Liquid Milk Sales, 1975-6 Sources: CSO StatBank; Carter (1978)

  20. Live Cattle Exports to Britain • Still a crucial aspect of Ireland’s cattle industry • Aug/Sept 1976 • A ‘scarcity’ of finished cattle in Britain drove a ‘buoyant trade in fat cattle’ (Irish Farmers’ Journal 1976) • Store prices ‘responded … in spite of the drought’ • Sept/Oct 1976 • Some concern over high prices for stores, possibly reflecting exuberant purchasing (Irish Times 1976) • Live cattle numbers exported to UK: -57.7% vs 1975, -46.1% vs 1974(Department of Agriculture 1977) (ibid.)

  21. Annual % Change in Nominal Family Farm Income per Farm By System in Each Province, 1975-6 n/a n/a n/a Sources: Heavey et al. (1977, 1978)

  22. Outline • Selection of case study & context • Description of the anomalous weather • Impact on Irish agricultural output & incomes • Agricultural policy responses • Policy lessons for the present day Taoiseach Cosgrave Minister for Agriculture Clinton EEC Commissioner Lardinois

  23. Principal Primary Sources • Published • Department of Agriculture Annual Report 1976 • Dáil Éireann debates 1976-7 • Irish Times & Irish Farmers’ Journal • Manuscript • Official papers from Departments of Agriculture (3 files), Foreign Affairs (2), An Taoiseach (9) & Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland (1) • Guinness Brewery internal file • Cork, Offaly & Wexford County Council minute books & County Manager’s Orders

  24. Cattle Sector • Financial aid for private storage of beef • Increased export ‘refunds’ (subsidies) for cattle & beef sold outside the EEC • Irish private storage schemes May & July 1976 • Latter more generous & ‘much more successful’ (Department of Agriculture 1977) • Total volume ≈ 15% of national beef trade exports in 1976

  25. Monthly Average Price per cwt Liveweight of BullocksRelative to Annual Average in That Year, 1970-6 Source: CSO (1978)

  26. Dairy Sector • 5 July 1976: EEC Commissioner apparently quite sanguine about general supply situation • 10 Sept 1976: EEC Regulation 2213/76 • Providing for immediate sale of intervention skimmed milk powder (SMP) • Outlet for 44,000 tonnes of Irish SMP • ≈ 80% of quantity placed into intervention during 1976

  27. Potato Sector • Received most attention from Irish policymakers • Principal policy measures • ‘Limited’ imports permitted, as in 1975 • Facilitated by EEC decision in July 1976 to suspend the common tariff on ware (table) potatoes • ≈ 0.4% of domestic output in 1976 (volume terms) • Export restrictions on ware potatoes from 29 July 1976 • Special steps to combat potato smuggling • Tiny seizures, but reportedly 17.5% fall in retail price

  28. Adverse Industry Reaction • ‘The Department’s refusal to issue export licences for maincrop varieties this year, thereby directly encouraging producers to get involved in smuggling to cash in on the most attractive prices, is no way to encourage the development of a potato industry’ • ‘This is bad business, bad policy and bad for the future of the potato grower’ Source: Irish Farmers’ Journal (1976)

  29. Local Government Level • Cork County Council • Aug 1976: offer to sell water to Wales • Offaly County Council • Some localized water supply problems, one partly due to ‘unauthorised manipulation of the valves’ • Wexford County Council • Engineering staff complimented on maintaining water supplies • Aug 1976: Enniscorthy District Committee agrees to contribute to filling in a disused reservoir

  30. Outline • Selection of case study & context • Description of the anomalous weather • Impact on Irish agricultural output & incomes • Agricultural policy responses • Policy lessons for the present day

  31. Some Lessons (1) • Of course government policy should not be determined from a sample of one! • Most vulnerable region reconfirmed • Yet likelihood of indirect economic impacts on farms located outside the east and southeast • Agricultural policy response looks generally quite good • Provides some encouragement with regard to the state’s ability to handle future weather shocks • Although it was not the greatest of challenges

  32. Some Lessons (2) • Reaffirms the need for policymakers to react as swiftly as possible to events • A more liberal attitude towards potato imports might have been desirable • Need to achieve balance between the potentially competing interests of farmers & consumers/taxpayers • Government needs to be ready for comment from general public about profiteering farmers & speculators • Underlines the need for excellent communications • New nationwide utility Irish Water should retain familiarity with local customers & assets

  33. Some Lessons (3) • Adaptive action for possible future droughts not as high a priority for Ireland as elsewhere • Irish farming in 1976 one of least affected in EEC • Two worst affected tillage crops now even less important in aggregate production value • Dairying set to become even more significant • Mixed ability to benefit from more severe drought induced production problems elsewhere → Supports IPCC (2012) general recommendation for initial focus on ‘low-regrets’ measures

  34. Some Lessons (4) • Reconsideration of agricultural risk management policy instruments • 1976 instruments now rolled back (intervention) and/or might be discontinued (export refunds and restrictions) • Counterfactuals using new CAP optional risk management ‘toolkit’ (European Commission 2013) • Perhaps no payouts under Article 40 income stabilisation tool: requires ↓30% in nominal farm income • Possibly few Article 38 production insurance payments would have been triggered: requires ↓30% in farm production • More attention required on impact of weather induced food price inflation on low income consumers in Ireland and other developed countries

  35. Agricultural History and Agricultural Policy • Evidence based/informed policy (Lunn 2013) • Economic history effort ‘should tilt somewhat more’ towards policy issues (Crafts 2011) • Historical analogies can contribute to policymakers’ ‘consideration set’ (Eichengreen 2012) • Development attempts to assist smallholder agriculture since 1945 failed to take past experiences into account (Harwood 2013) • Opportunities but real challenges

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