HAE Model

1. PanutManoonvoravong Bureau of research development and hydrology Department of water resources HAE Model

2. This model was funded by World Bank in May 2009 for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) to assist the Thai Government to develop policy tools for • adapting to climate change impacts on the water and natural resources of the Mekong River Basin • building local knowledge and capacity on climate change Background to the Hydrologic-Agronomic-Economic Model (HAE Model)

3. The pilot area for the HAE model development project was set in Kong-Chi-Mun the Northeast of Thailand basins (the sub-basin areas of lower Mekong tributaries). • The models are required to assess the impact of climate change on: • a) the hydrologic regime, • b) water usage, • c) agricultural production and • d) socio-economic conditions.

5. Topography

7. The ECHAM climate model has been developed from the ECMWF atmospheric model.  It provided a future climate scenario data of a spatial resolution approximates to about2.8º longitude/latitude and the time-step of 24 minutes. The model condition based on the emission scenario of IPCC SRES A2 & B2. ECHAM4 GCM

9. To provide the future climate scenario data based on ECHAM4 GCM’s future Climate data and the emission scenarios of IPCC SRES A2 & B2. • 6 variables used in the HAE model are • precipitation (mm) • max & min temperature (Degree Celsius) • solar radiation (MJ/m2) • Relative humidity • Wind speed (m/s) Role of PRECIS model on the project

10. Future climate projection using PRECIS model • Precipitation • PRECIS vs. Observation • Future Precipitation Change A2 & B2 • Other Meteorological Parameters • PRECIS vs. Observation • Future Change A2 & B2 • Evapotranspiration

11. Data preparing for HAE model Baseline PRECIS data To find the bias adjustment coefficient for PRECIS data comparison Observation in term of climatology PRECIS’ baseline & future climate scenario data Bias adjusted climate scenario data To apply for the future climate scenario data HAE model

12. 13 observation stations of TMD were selected to compare with PRECIS simulation PRECIS verification

13. Way to adjust PRECIS: Precipitation 0.2 Grid PRECIS Observed To Interpolate into each grid an approach in which variable bias adjustment was applied to the PRECIS data depending upon the ranking of the PRECIS simulated data amongst all rain-day events in a particular month

14. The approach developed was based on monthly corrections to PRECIS data determined from the differences between the mean monthly observed and PRECIS simulated data at the 13 TMD stations. By using adjusted PRECIS meteorological data, Daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the FAO Penman method. Data were calculated on each of the PRECIS grids. Way to adjust PRECIS: Other meteorological parameters

15. Future climate scenario projections Summary of future climate change in Kong-Chi-Mun basin

16. Future climate scenario Summary of future climate scenarios (Increase) No change (Decrease)

21. Time Series Routed Mean Daily Flows at Selected Locations SWAT Model Associated Rating Curve Associated Flood Depth Flood Depth-Area Table For Location Flood Damages Associated Flood Area and Duration Annual Loss Calculations

22. Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model Time Frame 2.1 Weather data Baseline (BS, 1980-2009) 2.2 Soil data 2.3 Crops and crop management practices Future A2 (2050s, 2040-2069) Future B2 (2050s, 2040-2069)

23. Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model 2.1Weather data 2.2 Soil data 2.3 Crops and crop management practices

24. Agriculture Flood Damage Hydropower Time Series Net Production Values Time Series Net Production Values Time Series Flood Damages Direct/Indirect Present Value of Production Present Value of Production Annual Damages Economic Analysis Overview Present Value Adaptation and Mitigation Costs Revised Present Value Production and Damages with Mitigation Benefit : Cost Ratios of Adaptation and Mitigation Measures

27. Thank you for you attention