WP 6 Exploitation & Market Analysis

1. WP 6 Exploitation & Market Analysis

2. Summary • Objectives • Tasks • Deliverables • Impact analysis MACE, APE • Business Plan • ALMA contribution to other WPs • Travels / Effort

3. WP objectives The WP6 objectives are the identification and the analysis of all technical, management and economic aspects related with the delivery of commercial (and, eventually, non-commercial) services, associated with the scope of APHORISM results, to end-user (customer) communities. The outcomes will describe the Institutional, Research and commercial markets that operate in the European Union in terms of the systems, applications and market players addressing: • Air traffic control (MACE) • Household insurance market (APE, pre-earthquake) • Civil protections and insurance companies (APE, post-earthquake) An estimate of the size of the market, with a particular focus on its growth in the short, medium and long term, will be done, including an assessment of the potential requirement for APHORISM and possible market sector options. WP6 will analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the APHORISM system in the context of the scope, dynamics and size of the market sector options, and prepare a business plan that will underpin the commercial exploitation of the market sectors’ options.

4. WP 6 tasks (1/3) T6.1 - Market Data Collection and Collation [Months: 3-12] – ALMA - Identify the current service delivery models relevant to the scope of the work and analyse them in terms of identification of all the services, stakeholders (competitors), operational and commercial characteristics, involved elements of the value chain, and limitations; - Identify market player, services and products: sensors, systems and technologies; - Assess the market in terms of its current and projected size, dynamics, product milestones; - Identify agencies, institutes, organizations and companies associated with the Air Control market and relevant to APHORISM products and services; - Assess potential European users of APHORISM products and services; - Prioritise opportunities for further analysis using criteria agreed by the Consortium; - Collate the data in an Excel Workbook.

5. WP 6 tasks (2/3) T6.2 - Focused Marketing Analysis[Months: 6-24] - ALMA, INGV - Public environment analysis and air traffic marketing scenario definition; - Competitor system analysis, business strategic area identification; - SWOT analysis (Competitor strengths and weaknesses) For the prioritised opportunities: - Scope focused market, with particular emphasis on the 3 to 7 year timeframe: current and projected size, dynamics and drivers and applications’ requirements; - Assess possible APHORISM competition; - Qualify APHORISM products and services strengths and weaknesses; - Analyse risks and possible impediments to market entry.

6. WP 6 tasks (3/3) T6.3 - Develop High Level Business Plan [Months: 12-36] - ALMA, IG The following tasks will be carried out during the development of a business plan for the APHORISM products and services: - Develop a coherent approach to the market sector business model; - Identify market entry strategies, including timescales and milestones; - Qualify the required investment in terms of: timescales, training and the design, test and manufacturing milestones for the APHORISM applications; - Qualify risks associated with market entry, investment and applications’ development; - Draft road map; - Project product cost profiles; - Model marketing definition including start-up costs, licenses, permits, etc.; - New product /service development; - New target customer development; - Breakeven analysis; - Definition of risk management strategies.

7. Deliverables D6.1 : Summary of the European and non-European Markets data collection: tables containing the data collected and the preliminary results of the analysis in Excel workbook format output of Task 6.1. [T12] D6.2 : Summary of focused analysis of the APHORISM relevant market sectors addressing exploitation potential, risks to market entry, including: Competing products/systems; Regulatory and legal barriers, and Standardization requirements; output of Task 6.2. [T24] D6.3 : High-Level Business Plan including a record of the decisions taken and actions agreed. This deliverable will allow further feedback with the technical WPs to assess the VAP and SEP products performances and eventually include further exploitation scenarios; output of Task 6.3. [T30] D6.4 : This deliverable is foreseen at project completion to include the verification of the market and business model; output of task 6.3 [T36].

8. Impact: MACE MACE methodology impact on the European air traffic scenario will be assessed by the following main factors: • Frequency and extension of the catastrophic event; • Economic impact of the event on the European market; • Improvement over the current adopted methods. Considering severe events like the 2010 volcanic eruption in Iceland may happens on a average of 30 years, the direct impact on the European air transportation market can be estimated in 46,7 M€/year but the overall indirect impact on the travel industry in Europe may account up to 300 M€ per Year. The APHORISM proposed methodologies can provide much better and precise assessment for the sake of the decision maker with important consequences on the time duration and covered area of the air ban. MACE is estimated to provide between 7 to 10% better performance with respect to the currently used methodologies; the actual figure of the improvement with regard the current used methodologies will be assessed during the project implementation and input to the evaluation of the impact to the European market. The target end user of the MACE methods will be the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). Potential end-user , e.g. air lines, airport and national flight authority will also be analyzed.

9. Impact: APE For the damage assessment tool APE two areas of interest have been identified matching with the intermediate and final product of the methodology: • Intermediate product “vulnerability scenario” • Private insurance market for householders • Urban Planners • Final Product LiDAM • Emergency response mainly concerning Civil Protection operability • Damage assessment for both public bodies and private insurance companies Vulnerability scenario can be used to drive premium prices for earthquake household insurance companies with the result of minimizing the risk of default in case of severe events. For emergency response the market analysis will focus on the improved operative response of the Civil Protection to seismic event while damage assessment will be assessed mainly on the private insurance market. The target end user for APE will be: • Private insurance companies (European, US and Japan markets) • Italian Civil Protection (coordination with other European Civil protection will be assessed) • Public bodies in charge of damage assessment (e.g. Dep. Of Urban Environment System, Japan)

10. APE vulnerability scenarios To support insurance price polices at local scale:

11. Business Plan The Business Plan (BP) will center on the provision of a service for safety civil aviation and earthquake damage assessment, both of which have a broader utility than the specialist emergency focus that drives this project. Accordingly, the market analysis, which will both shape and qualify the BP, will focus on the Civil Aviation, Emergency and Insurance markets. The APHORISM business case analysis will be carried out in 3 discrete phases with each phase terminating in a dedicated meeting (coincident with the major project meetings at T12, T24, T30 and T36).

12. WP 6 - Effort WP 6 Exploitation & Market Analysis WP 6 Subcontract A subcontract is required to perform the task of collection of economic/market data and statistical and financial reports required for the assessment of the specific market of APHORIM. This is specifically true with respect to the method of volcano ashes, where the impact on air traffic operations can be dramatic and the evaluation of the potential market require detailed reports from previous reported events. Furthermore the evaluation of the economic impact of severe events shall be related to the probability of occurrence of similar events in the near and medium term future. The evaluation of the statistic of the events strongly affects the analysis of the economic impact and, consequently, the analysis of commercial exploitation of the remote sensing methods. This ultimately relies on the quality and accuracy of the data that, quite often, requires a fee.

13. ALMA contribution to WP 7 WP 7 Dissemination T7.1 - Dissemination plan [Months: 1-36] IG, INGV, BRGM, DIET, GAMMA, UOXF, ALMA ALMA will support the coordinator in the implementation of the dissemination plan by presenting APHORISM activities, intermediate and final project results on conferences, and workshops together with publication of scientific papers, international congresses proceedings and short articles in newspapers.

14. ALMA contribution to WP 8 WP 8 Technical Coordination T8.2 - Project monitoring & control [Months: 1-36] IG, INGV, ALMA ALMA will support the coordinator in the monitoring the deliverables of each work package (quality) and , If necessary, propose alternatives and/or solutions to ensure the correct execution of the project. T8.3 - Risk Management [Months: 1-36] IG, INGV, ALMA ALMA will support the coordinator in the risk assessment and identification of mitigations or corrective actions;

15. Travels / Effort Travels • Project meetings: This includes participation at the project meetings (at least 3 meetings in Europe), and participation to International conferences (1 person) linked to the project activities. • Exploitation and dissemination. This includes the ALMA activities in WP6 and WP 7 and the participation at European and International conferences (likely 3 conference/workshop in Europe and 3 out of Europe) for exploitation & disseminating of project results. Effort The SME efforts versus cost have been computed following the Commission decision of 21/01/2011, according to the following table: