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  1. ATTITUDES TOWARDS INTEGRATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION PRESENTATION OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH MARCH, 2003

  2. CONTENTS RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS VIEWS ON OUTLOOK FOR FARMING AND BUSINESS GAINS AND LOSSES IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION WHAT WILL CHANGE AFTER ADHERENCE? INFORMATION NEEDS REFERENDUM

  3. RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES

  4. RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES • In January and February 2003 the Pentor Institute, commissioned by European Integration Office, carried out a qualitative and quantitative research project on public opinion about the European Union.

  5. RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES • The qualitative study covered a sample of farmers and entrepreneurs, and aimed to defined: • state of knowledge about the EU, • hope and perceived benefits of Poland joining EU structures, • perceived threats and obstacles. • The quantitative research part was fielded on a representative sample of the general public, and aimed to identify: • public acceptance of views expressed by farmers and entrepreneurs, • public interest in integration issues, • perceptions of loses and befits from integration.

  6. Qualitative Research • The study was effected by Focused Group Interviews. • Overall 6 FGI were held on 17 -22.01.2003. • FARMERS Group 1: 18.01.2003 farm up to 5 ha Biłgoraj woj. Lubelskie Group 2: 21.01.2003 farm 10 - 20 ha Ostrów Mazowiecka woj. Mazowieckie Group 3: 22.01.2003 farm 20 - 50 ha Śrem, Wielkopolska

  7. Qualitative Research • MSP Group 4: 17.01.2003 small firms, under 10 employees Lublin Group 5: 22.01.2003 small/medium firms 10 - 50 employees Poznań Group 6: 21.01.2003 medium/larger firms 50 – 250 employees Katowice

  8. Quantitative Research • The Quantitative Research was carried out on 22-23 February 2003 • sample representative for Poland over 15 year of age, • N = 1000. • Face to face interviews. • Maximum statistical error for such sample size (1000) is 3,2% at 95% confidence interval.

  9. INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS

  10. INTEREST IN INTEGRATIONQualitative Research • Village dwellers show limited interest in the integration process and consider the enthusiasm shown by city folk and politicians to be unfounded. TV shows bombastic propaganda, farmers in Spain dozing under olive trees, and where are we? What sense does it make? [farmer 10-20 ha, Mazowieckie] • Entrepreneurs and managers expressed the view, that Poland’s entry to the EU will be a fact of large importance for Polish firms and were greatly interested in the issue.

  11. INTEREST IN INTEGRATION Quantitative Research • The public showed moderate interest in the integration process. • One one third rated this issue as very important or important. • Different attitudes amongst farmers and managers is well illustrated by qualitative research. • Farmers and villagers, compared to the general public, rate European integration issues as relatively less important, • Managers and private entrepreneurs attach much higher importance to it.

  12. On a scale from 1 to 10 please tell me how important is Poland’s integration with the EU for you personally? Average rating very important not at all important N=1000

  13. INTEREST IN INTEGRATION • When studying interest in integration we asked the respondents how often do they happen to: • talk about integration, 24% • read about it, 23% • follow this issue on TV and radio, 42% • take part in meetings. 1% • the results confirm the thesis, that in early 2003 interest in integration issues is moderate. 2-3 RAZY W TYGODNIU I CZĘŚCIEJ

  14. How often do you ...? N=1000

  15. INTEREST IN INTEGRATION - FARMERS AND MANAGERS • managers: compared to the rest of the public, more often: • talk about the EU, • read about, and • watch and listen to programs about it. • Farmers: • have an above average contact with the EU through the radio and TV, • are much less likely to read about in the press or information materials.

  16. Intensive and regular interest in integration problems 53% 74% talk with family/ friends about integration 56% 48% read press articles/leaflets/information materials about 84% integration 31% 66% 78% watch TV/listen to radio programs about integration 74% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% farmers managers total N=1000

  17. BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS AND ENTREPRENEURS(Qualitative Research)

  18. BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS It’s better to keep to pensioners on the farm than 1000 pigs. • Regardless of segment respondents agreed, that Polish agriculture is going through difficult times. • The main problem of agriculture is impossibility of rational planning . • This state of the affairs, in farmers’ eyes, is the result of years of neglect of the Polish Government, which has never developed any agricultural policy and production planning methods. • Today, as stated in all segments, farming in unprofitable, does not support farmers nor give them means to expand their farms. • Low profitability is especially pronounced in small farms under 5 ha.

  19. BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS • Farmers emphasised, that they cannot get loans. • Some say that bank employees are discriminate against farmers, and immediately say “no” when they hear that the loan taker would be a farmer. I want to buy a straw press and called the store in Kalinowice and they told me, that they start at 9,5000 and I can buy it with payment stretched out to 10 years, but to buy it, I’d have to have minimum 800 zł income, and where am I to get it? [farmers up to 5 ha, Lubelskie]

  20. POLISH AGRICULTURE - STRENGTHS • lower usage of fertilisers and herbicides, as well as low popularity of preservatives and colorants makes Polish produce - in farmers eyes: • much more natural • healthier • tastier than comparable EU products.

  21. POLISH AGRICULTURE - STRENGTHS We have that love for the land, the farmer will not buy bread for himself, but he will feed the horse. There is nothing like that in the West, we don’t have economics, we have - for lack of better word - love. I can see that it doesn't pay, but my heart is in that farm, it would not be easy for me to give it up. My father loves it so much that instead of resting in retirement, he grabs the buckets and rushes to work, to take a look at the pigs feeding, he knows which one has a spot behind the ear. They are afraid of that, the West, of this attachment, of this love to the land. [farmer 10-20 ha, Mazowieckie]

  22. BUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENTREPRENEURS • Business outlook among entrepreneurs and managers was mostly negative. • The dimmest view was held by small entrepreneurs and companies operating exclusively on the domestic market, without any contacts with foreign partners. • Medium and lager firms were slightly more upbeat, especially exporters and managers of local branches of firms with international scale of operations.

  23. BUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENTREPRENEURS • the largest problems experienced by entrepreneurs are: • illegal competition, • low demand for goods and services, • low liquidity • low availability of investment loans.

  24. BUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENETRPRENEOURS • Entrepreneurs see the legal framework as not being favourable for running a business. • The problems most often mentioned in all groups were : • high tax and ZUS rates, • complicated legal language, • lack of published materials with unequivocal interpretation of laws and regulations. The very fixed costs, e.g. ZUS, are a large burden. To make ends meet you really have to slave away, as top cover the fixed charges, and if you employ people,e, than the cost is even higher. [Lublin]

  25. BUSINESS OUTLOOK SIZE FARMERS MSP SMALL • Dramatically bad • Bad MEDIUM/ SMALL • Very bad • Rather bad MEDIUM/ LARGE

  26. ADAPTATION SIZE FARMERS MSP SMALL SMALL • Improving product quality • new market acquisition • buying new machines, tools • no action to adapt MEDIUM/ SMALL MEDIUM/ SMALL • Modernisation of barns and pigsties • modern raising methods • quality norms • „the Union is imposing very strict regulations on Poland” • ISO applications • gaining certificates and improving qualifications • training staff • expanding product portfolio MEDIUM/ LARGE MEDIUM/ LARGE

  27. GAINS AND LOSSES INVOLVED WITH EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

  28. GAINS AND LOSSES - FARMERS (QUALITATIVE RESEARCH) • Farmers expect to lose out due to integration, and that they will be in economic dire straits. We have no benefits from the Union, as we will be absorbed, buried completely . [farmers up to 5 ha, Lubelskie] Nobody cares what will happen to the farmer, his family, his means of support. [farmers 21 ha and more, Wielkopolska] TV shows bombastic propaganda, farmers in Spain dozing under olive trees, and where are we? What sense does it make? [farmer 10-20 ha, Mazowieckie]

  29. GAINS AND LOSSES - ENTREPRENEURS (QUALITATIVE RESEARCH) • Entrepreneurs have both hope and fears connected with EU access. • Fears are found mostly amongst small firms, family businesses, • although these are also felt by larger entrepreneurs. I believe that the EU will make something happen, that something will start moving, that people will have more money. When they'll have more money, that will surely change things around and not only in my trade,but all over the place. When I look at the EU I see some clarity there, some clearer rules, whereas in Poland we swim in murky waters.

  30. LOSSES DUE TO ADHERENCE- Qualitative Research SIZE FARMERS MSP SMALL • smaller subsidies to farming • closures of many farms • expansion of strong foreign firms • Speculation in farmland • no interest in farmers shown by Government • foreign cultural patterns seeping in (liberalism) • weakened position on local market • competition backed by large capital • Poles being forced out off the markets • lowered income • higher unemployment • higher prices • higher cost of living MEDIUM/ SMALL MEDIUM/ LARGE

  31. GAINS DUE TO ADHERENCE- Qualitative Research SIZE FARMERS MSP SMALL • Production: • fruit • vegetables • agrotourism • unification and simplification of Law • introduction of clear rules for economic life • simple loan system • higher availability of loans • economic revival • drop in unemployment • improved quality of goods and services • higher living standard • freedom of travel MEDIUM/ SMALL • alliances, producer groups, large firms • Production: • milk • cattle • eco-food MEDIUM/ LARGE

  32. GAINS AND LOSSES - FROM NATIONAL AND PERSONAL VIEWPOINT (Quantitative Research) • Views on the impact for the Country is very strongly correlated with the expected effects for oneself.

  33. Overall, will EU membership bring...? N=1000

  34. GAINS AND LOSSES - FROM NATIONAL AND PERSONAL VIEWPOINT (Quantitative Research) • Quantitative Research confirmed the findings and conclusions from the FGI. • Farmers and city dwellers (in relation to average ratings): • were more pessimistic as to the effects of integration, both from personal and national viewpoint. • Their ratings tended to be extreme as concerns effects of integration to themselves. • managers were more positive as to the effects of integration for the sate of the Country.

  35. Overall, will EU membership bring more benefits or loss to you personally? - average rating - Much more gains than losses Much more losses than gains N=1000

  36. Overall, will EU membership bring more benefits or loss to Poland as a whole?- average rating - Much more gains than losses Much more losses than gains N=1000

  37. GAINS AND LOSSES - ATTITUDE TOWARDS FEARS - FARMERS AND MANAGERS • Poles well understand the grounds for farmers’ and managers’ fears. The accurately mentioned the causes which these had given on the qualitative stage. • Higher consistency was observed as concerns managers. • Farmers: • were more drastic about their plight than the general public, and accentuated threats much more often, • were less likely to noticed their “faults”.

  38. What makes Polish businessmen be wary of the EU? N=1000

  39. What makes Polish farmers be wary of the EU? N=1000

  40. GAINS AND LOSSES - WHO LOSES WHO GAINS Public view of effects of integration • Gain • young people, • educated, • enterprising, • political elite • Lose • older folks, • uneducated, • struggling in market economy conditions

  41. Who will gain and who will lose from Poland’s joining the EU? N=1000

  42. Who will gain and who will lose from Poland’s joining the EU? N=1000

  43. WHAT WILL CHANGE AFTER ADHESION ?

  44. WHAT WILL CHANGE IN YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION? • Half of the population expects EU membership to affect their lives. • More than half do not expect any positive nor negative changes in : • satisfaction with life, • scope for personal development, • material situation, • “toughness” of job, • highest hopes: scope for personal development • highest fears: heavier work burden

  45. Do you expect Poland’s joining the EU in 14 months time will affect you personally? N=1000

  46. How do you imagine your future after joining the EU? N=1000

  47. WHAT WILL CHANGE IN YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION? • A significant aspect from the viewpoint of expected effects of integration of personal situation is the time horizon. • Poles are more optimistic when we ask about a distant perspective, 10 years after joining the EU, than when we ask about the immediate post entry period. • Work burden: even after 10 years there are fears related with this issue

  48. How do you envision your future after 10 years’ of Poland in the EU, i.e. 2014? Growth in positive expectations +1 +11 +17 +13 N=1000

  49. WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE COUNTRY’S SITUATION? • In early 2003 the Polish public was interested in ....

  50. WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE COUNTRY’S SITUATION? • Poles expect: • positive changes in the areas they deem to be of utmost importance, • changes for the worse in relative less important areas. • The is one exception: the majority fear that cost of living will go up after EU entry.