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The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns

The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns. David Richardson, Cihan Sahin , ECMWF Alexis Doerenbecher , CNRM-GAME, Meteo -France Sharan Majumdar , University of Miami Stefan Klink, EUMETNET Observations Programme, c/o DWD david.richardson@ecmwf.int.

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The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns

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  1. The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns David Richardson, CihanSahin, ECMWF Alexis Doerenbecher, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France SharanMajumdar, University of Miami Stefan Klink, EUMETNET Observations Programme, c/o DWD david.richardson@ecmwf.int June 2014

  2. Outline • Principle of data targeting • THORPEX beginnings – A-TREC (2003) • PREVIEW DTS (2008) • What and how it works • Use of PREVIEW DTS (mid-lat, tropics, polar) • Conclusions from DTS June 2014

  3. Data targeting – the principle June 2014

  4. Data targeting – the principle June 2014

  5. Data Targeting (or adaptive observations) • The process of targeting observation involves the following main steps • (1) Case identification: which forecast/region has potential high impact or large uncertainty associated? • (2) Sensitive area prediction: where might a more accurate definition of the initial state of the atmosphere benefit the quality of the forecast over the region in question? • (3) Observation selection: which additional observations should be deployed? June 2014

  6. THORPEX aims for data targeting • “Is targeting a viable future component of the GOS, and if so, what weather events, regimes and forecast lead times should be targeted and what are the optimal targeting strategies?” • THORPEX International Research Implementation Plan. WMO/TD-No.1258, WWRP/THORPEX No.4. D.P. ROGERS et al, 2005 June 2014

  7. Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) • First THORPEX field campaign, Oct-Dec 2003 • Aim: to test feasibility of quasi-operational targeting of observations using a variety of platforms • Proof-of-concept for future targeting field campaigns • First attempt to control large set of obs systems • 66 operational radiosonde stations in Europe and Canada (06/18) • European ASAP fleet (13 ships) • European AMDAR fleet (550 aircraft) • Rapid scan winds from GOES, METEOSAT • Dropsondes from research aircraft (NOAA G-IV, UND Citation, DLR Falcon June 2014

  8. Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) • Virtual operations centre at Met Office, Exeter • Twice daily teleconferences • Sensitive Area Predictions (SAPs) on ECMWF web site from ECMWF, Met Office • Additional forecast charts, SAPs and discussion via ftp server June 2014

  9. Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) Leutbecher et al., 2003. ECMWF Newsletter 102 June 2014

  10. A-TReCconclusions • 21 cases with extra obs • 23,000 AMDAR, 65 ASAP, 214 radiosondes, 277 dropsondes • Overall small but positive benefit • Twice as many cases improved as deteriorated • Large verification area for more significant impact • Differences between SAP methods • Often no targetable obs in target area • Often uncertainty considerably reduced between case selection and observation deployment (2-3 days later) • Very time consuming - significant automation needed to make real-time adaptive control feasible June 2014

  11. PREVIEW Data Targeting System (DTS) • Interactive web-based system to provide data targeting information and request additional observations to improve short-range (1-3 days) forecasts of potentially high-impact or high uncertainty weather events in Europe • DTS developed by ECMWF in partnership with Met Office and EUCOS • Funded by EU project EURORISK-PREVIEW and EUCOS • Long-term trial to test operational feasibility June 2014

  12. DTS components • The system consists of five main components which cover the targeting process: • Forecast displays (selection of products to help the forecaster with the weather event identification); • Case Proposal (online form to propose a potential SAP request); • Sensitive Area Prediction Calculations (are performed for all accepted cases); • Extra Observation Proposal (online form for lead-user to suggest areas for extra observation requests); • Observation Monitoring (information about the targeted observations is displayed) June 2014

  13. PREVIEW Data Targeting System (DTS) System access: general (view only); restricted (edit online forms, users); privileged (make decisions, lead-user) June 2014

  14. DTS Components –Forecast Products Forecast range: t+60 to t+120 12-h step ECMWF : Deterministic+ EPS Met Office: MOGREPS15 June 2014

  15. DTS Components – Case Proposal • On-line form: • Propose a Case • SelectVT • Select VA • Choose TT • Add justification • Submit June 2014

  16. DTS Components – Case Proposal A.case_id.yyyymmddhh (VT) Status : Accepted June 2014

  17. DTS Components – Sensitive Area Prediction Calculations • SAP request are automatically submitted for all accepted cases (lead-user responsibility). • Sensitive areas i.e. the regions where extra observations are expected to have the largest impact on the forecasts for the verification area are obtained by two different objective techniques: • Total Energy Singular Vectors (TESV) provided by ECMWF • Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) provided by: • UKMObased on their ensemble prediction model MOGREPS15 • Meteo-Francebased on their ensemble prediction model PEARP. June 2014

  18. DTS Components – Extra Observation Proposal • A webpage is available for lead-user to suggest areas where extra observations should be requested accordingly to the availability of observations: • For each accepted case, SAP results are plotted overlaid with available observations; • Lead-user select region(s) to target; • The user can comment on the lead-user suggestions; • The lead-user has to review the comment suggestions and finalise the observation selection. June 2014

  19. DTS Components – Extra Observation Proposal ECMWF: TESV summary map All “Targetable” stations + ships are listed June 2014

  20. DTS Components – Extra Observation Proposal UKMO: ETKF summary map All “Targetable” stations + ships are listed June 2014

  21. DTS Components – Extra Observation Proposal Meteo-France: ETKF summary map All “Targetable” stations + ships are listed June 2014

  22. DTS Components – Observations requests • DTS automatically generates and sends individual e-mails to providers (from dts@ecmwf.int) according to the observation list accepted by the lead-user: • i) Radiosonde stations (one e-mail for each observation) operated by the National Meteorological Services • ii) ASAP Ships operated by EUMETNET-ASAP Programme (each e-mail is sent to dwd and routing to ASAP unit) • 10 E-ASAP units : ASDE01, ASDE02, ASDE03, ASDE04, ASGB01, ASEU01, ASEU02, ASEU03, ASEU04, ASEU05 • iii) AMDAR aircraft operated by EUMETNET-AMDAR Programme (e-mails are sent to the Programme Manager at UKMO) June 2014

  23. DTS Components – Extra Observation Monitoring • DTS provides information on a daily basis about the additional observation requested by the system June 2014

  24. DTS Components – Extra Observation Monitoring • DTS provides information on a daily basis about the additional observation requested by the system June 2014

  25. Summary of PREVIEW DTS • 11-month trial (4 February - 19 December 2008) • 628 cases proposed • 548 accepted (SAP computed) • 184 sets of observation requests • 1402 radiosonde requests, 87% deployed • 226 E-ASAP (ship sondes), 54% deployed • 224 E-AMDAR (aircraft) June 2014

  26. Conclusions from PREVIEW DTS • Successful demonstration of real-time adaptive control of operation observing systems • Efficient - feasible for operational use (case selection, control of SAP computations, observation requests) • Remote operation, multi-partner requests • Monitoring of deployments (auditing, QC) • DTS database of cases for future study • SAP grib files are archived in MARS • Prediction of ship position would be helpful June 2014

  27. Use of DTS in field campaigns • PREVIEW (2008) • MEDEX (autumn 2008, 2009) • HyMEX (2012) • GFDex (2007) • IPY-THORPEX (March 2008) • Concordiasi (2010) • T-PARC (2008) and winter TPARC (2008-9) June 2014

  28. Medex Jansa et al., 2011. NHESS June 2014

  29. Medex Campins et al., 2013. NHESS June 2014

  30. HyMeX • Ducrocq et al, 2014. BAMS. HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the northwesternMediterranean • Used DTS to request additional observations • “Two-thirds of the requested radiosoundings were made over Spain and Southern France in order to monitor the upstream flow of the precipitating events. These regions often corresponded with the sensitive areas computed by the DTS.” • SOP1. 5 September to 6 November 2012 within the framework of the 10-year international HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) June 2014

  31. Norwegian IPY–THORPEX • DTS system for 3 weeks (25 February to 16 March 2008) • SAPS for fixed verification region over Scandinavia (52–71.5◦N, 5–29.3◦E) • Used to target flights for DLR Falcon • Focus on polar lows Irvine et al., 2011. QJRMetS June 2014

  32. Norwegian IPY–THORPEX • DTS system for 3 weeks (25 February to 16 March 2008) • SAPS for fixed verification region over Scandinavia (52–71.5◦N, 5–29.3◦E) • Used to target flights for DLR Falcon • Focus on polar lows Kristjánsson et al., 2011, BAMS June 2014

  33. DTS for TPARC • Interactive web-based system • Developed by ECMWF in partnership with UK Met Office • Funded by EU and EUCOS as part of Eurorisk PREVIEW • Sensitive Area Predictions (SAPs) • Automatic submission of 5 fixed • areas • Up to 5 additional areas chosen • interactively • Flexible choice of targeting time • (t + 18 to 102 h) • and verification time • (t + 36 to 120 h) Customised for T-PARC by Cristina Prates, David Richardson, Cihan Sahin

  34. DTS for T-PARC • SAPs from up to 6 different centres displayed in common format • Icons toggle between calculations from different centres and overlays • > 500 individual cases during Aug.- Sept. 2008 JMA SVs ECMWF SVs UKMO ETKF NRL SVs NCEP/U. Miami ETKF U. Yonsei SVs Super Typhoon Jangmi: Targeting Time 28 Sept. 2008

  35. SAPs from ECMWF NCEP / U. Miami NRL JMA UKMO U. Yonsei

  36. Summary • Technical success • Benefits? June 2014

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