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Group A: Limits and p-values with nuisance parameters

Group A: Limits and p-values with nuisance parameters. Banff, July 2006. 1) Limits with nuisance parameters: Joel producing updated version of ‘challenge’ Different people to try different methods 1’) Kyle et al: Extended problem for LHC Higgs search 2) p-values: Long note by Luc.

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Group A: Limits and p-values with nuisance parameters

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  1. Group A: Limits and p-valueswith nuisance parameters Banff, July 2006

  2. 1) Limits with nuisance parameters: Joel producing updated version of ‘challenge’ Different people to try different methods 1’) Kyle et al: Extended problem for LHC Higgs search 2) p-values: Long note by Luc

  3. Convenor for p-values Luc Demortier: 6 p-value questions for Statisticians Why 5σ? Look-elsewhere and FDR? 8 methods for systematics and p-values. Optimal statistic? Non-standard L ratio: Importance sampling for 5σ Fishing with Poisson: Use half data Alternatives to p-values? Posterior probabilities?

  4. Specific talks James Bueno: Calculator for Bayesian limits Tony Burnett: Looking for 5σ sources in GLAST Lots of false sources. Tom Junk: Not necessarily disaster Eric Marchand: Lower limit on frequentist coverage for Bayes intervals for bounded continuous parameters Wants to extend to Poisson Example of HPD Bayes interval with 0% coverage for some θ Gunter Zech: Paradoxes about choosing between H1 and H2 via χ2 or L-ratio

  5. Specific talks Giovanni Punzi: Fully frequentist method for Poisson + 1 nuisance param Little overcoverage Extendable to more parameters? Luc Demortier: Reference analysis Applied to Punzi problem of 1/p measurement

  6. Specific talks Kyle Cranmer: Marked Poisson for LHC Higgs Many channels Cranmer and Conrad: Profile L Full calculation with shapes slow, so use profile L to select candidates at ≥3σfor full treatment Bodhi Sen: Conf intervals with nuisance parameters Also looks for signal (s > 0). But depends on prior for s=0, so better to look for Ns ≠ 0. Working on coverage properties for Bayesian upper limits for Poisson with nuisance param Joel Heinrich: Turn Poisson with discrete n into continuous measurement of t

  7. Thank You! Weather forecasters BIRS and PIMS Participants for working at Workshop Statisticians for advice and patience Convenors: Joel, Luc, David, Byron, Nancy

  8. Thank You! Weather forecasters BIRS and PIMS Participants for working at Workshop Statisticians for advice and patience Convenors: Joel, Luc, David, Byron, Nancy Nancy

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