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Market Efficiency, Housing Affordability and the Real Estate “Bubble”. Samuel Alfred Leger. Basic Idea. To develop a better understanding of the current real estate and housing markets Develop a new measure of housing affordability. Research Questions. What is driving housing appreciation?

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Presentation Transcript
basic idea
Basic Idea
  • To develop a better understanding of the current real estate and housing markets
  • Develop a new measure of housing affordability
research questions
Research Questions
  • What is driving housing appreciation?
  • Is the real estate market staying efficient?
  • Is there actually a real estate “bubble”?
  • What can recent homebuyers do to stay afloat in an inflated real estate market?
  • Develop a measure of housing market efficiency and use this measure also to consider housing affordability
  • Examine housing market conditions within the Cape Fear region
  • Examine home prices, interest rates and household income to see how those variables have swayed.
  • Interest rates adjust to record lows
  • Household income and inflation were modest
  • Possible drivers for housing affordability
research and process
Research and Process
  • Developing a measure of housing affordability and tracking it over a period of time
  • To discover any extremes in the market, either today or in the recent past.
research and process1
Research and Process
  • Considering median house prices along with the median household income; a ratio of these is developed for North Carolina with regional data
  • reach conclusions about the local market.
  • Give insight about market conditions, housing affordability and the much discussed real estate “bubble”
  • Anderson, Randy and Youguo Liang., 2001, Mature and Yet Imperfect: Real Estate Capital Market Arbitrage, Journal of real Estate Portfolio Management, 7: 3, pg. 281.
  • Fickes, Mike., 2001, Feasting on Market Inefficiency Worldwide, National Real Estate Investor, 43: 11, pg. 26.
  • Geddes, Ryan., 2004, Housing Bubble Building?, Business Journal, 19: 49, pg. 1.
  • Guran, Lleana., 2000, Housing Opportunity Index, Housing Economics, 48: 6, pg. 3.
  • Liang, Youguo and Richard A. McLemore., 2004, Housing Appreciation- The Three Fundamental Drivers, Real Estate Finance, 21: 1, pg. 3.
  • Rex, Tom R., 2000, Housing Affordability Worsens For Low-Income Households, Arizona Business, 47:11, pg. 5.
  • Rex, Tom R., 2001, Housing Appreciation Varies Widely Across Nation, Arizona Business, 48: 3, pg. 1.
  • Wang, Peijie., 2000, Market Efficiency and Rationality in Property Investment, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 21: 2, pg 185.
  • Zietz, Emily N., 2003, Multifamily Housing: A review of Theory and Evidence, The Journal of Real Estate Research, 25: 2, pg 185.