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The Need for Independent Senior Housing With Krakow as a Test Market

The Need for Independent Senior Housing With Krakow as a Test Market. Gretchen E. Garniss ERES - June 2010. Independent Senior Housing. Goals of this presentation The senior population in Poland will be increasing substantially over the next 30 years;

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The Need for Independent Senior Housing With Krakow as a Test Market

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  1. The Need for Independent Senior Housing With Krakow as a Test Market Gretchen E. Garniss ERES - June 2010

  2. Independent Senior Housing Goals of this presentation • The senior population in Poland will be increasing substantially over the next 30 years; • This population is living longer, healthier and is more active over a longer period of time; • Current senior housing options are not meeting the needs of this growing population; • Changing family dynamics are enabling and encouraging alternative living situations; • With Krakow as the test market, this presentation will show that the demographic and cultural shifts in Polish society are not only enabling a new type of housing but are fueling its demand.

  3. DEMOGRAPHY 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Population: Age 0 - 14 (%) 25.5 25.1 22.9 20.5 19.7 20.4 20.7 20.4 19.7 Population: Age 65 + (%) 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.7 11.9 11.4 12.6 14.6 16.4 Urban population (000s) 22,314 23,570 24,543 25,389 26,331 27,367 28,383 29,268 30,022 Rural population (000s) 14,889 14,549 14,014 13,337 12,669 12,019 11,350 10,642 9,950 Urbanization level(%) 60.0 61.8 63.7 65.6 67.5 69.5 71.4 73.3 75.1 Household total number (000s) 12,243 12,970 13,800 14,432 14,853 15,345 15,946 16,618 1985 - 1990 1990 - 1995 1995 - 2000 2000 - 2005 2005 - 2010 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2025 Life expectancy at birth: M (yrs) 66.9 66.7 66.7 67.7 68.7 69.7 70.6 71.7 Life expectancy at birth: F (yrs) 75.4 75.7 75.7 76.5 77.3 78.1 78. 6 79.1 Total population growth rate (%) 0.49 0.23 0.09 0.14 0.20 0.18 0.09 0.03 Urban population growth rate (%) 1.10 0.81 0.68 0.73 0.77 0.73 0.61 0.51 Rural population growth rate (%) - 0.46 - 0.75 - 0.99 - 1.03 - 1.05 - 1.15 - 1.29 - 1.34 Independent Senior Housing Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20050309092014/http://www.unhabitat.org/habrdd/conditions/easteurope/poland.htm

  4. Independent Senior Housing Men Women Table: Demographic Research, Volume 17 Article 11, Nov. 2007, page 302

  5. Independent Senior Housing Alternative Housing Models For purposes of this presentation, independent senior housing will be defined as follows:  ”…housing that is restricted to older adults, usually age 50 and over. These facilities represent a tenant-landlord relationship. This type of housing generally includes one or more of the following supportive services: meals, housekeeping, some assistance with personal care, transportation, socialization activities, laundry, resident/service coordinator who helps residents access other services and programs from community-based agencies. Personal/home care services through a licensed home care agency are usually available at an extra cost.”

  6. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation The significance of housing is stressed by numerous laws and legal documents including the Constitution of the Republic of Poland. Article 75 clause 1 of the Constitution commits the public authorities to carry out a policy which should: “satisfy housing needs of the citizens, and particularly to combat homelessness, promote development of social housing and support citizens’ actions aimed at acquisition of a dwelling by each citizen”.

  7. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued • Housing development has four aspects • Individual • Social • Material • Economic • Affects number of marriages and children born

  8. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing situation, continued • Post War policy • Housing is public property built by state • Built for advancing state policy • Construction was wasteful and inefficient, low quality • During the 1980’s - housing completions down 45%, investment down 20% • By late 1980’s – 15-20 year wait to buy a house/apartment

  9. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued • Poor construction and quality of Soviet development • By 1990’s – still needed over 1.8 million units to meet demand • Old inventory – 45% of stock needs significant renovation • By mid 1990’s – 90% housing development was private • Privately built units contained significantly more living area (61.6 meters (state built) v. 116.9 meters (privately built))

  10. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued • 3 basic categories of Polish housing units • Pre-war • Post war • Polish modern

  11. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued Pre-War Units • Urban locations, 3-5 stories • Tend to be old homes of Poles divided into apartments • Little updating over the years • Old heating, electric, plumbing • Ownership issues

  12. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued Post-War Units • Suburban locations, 5-15 stories • Soviet construction – poor quality • 1/3 of all Poles live in this housing • Previously state owned and operated • Municipalities have little money • Maintenance and repair issues • Not energy efficient • Low rents – many seniors

  13. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued Modern Units • Ex-urban, suburban locations, 3-7 stories • Late 1980’s to present • Energy efficient, modern amenity • More open space • Underground parking • Professional onsite management • Targeting upper income residents Garden Residence Apartments new construction in southern Krakow

  14. Independent Senior Housing Current Housing Situation, continued • The Future • Need more units targeting low to middle incomes • Need more specialized units • Need variety of housing units/prices for economic and social reasons • Heterogeneous communities

  15. Independent Senior Housing Image of Seniors • Perception old age vary depending on current age/gender • “Older you get, younger you feel” • Many seniors live on their own and are satisfied • 87% seniors have children with regular contact • Healthier lifestyle • Positive changes in nutrition, alcohol consumption and preventative medicine

  16. Independent Senior Housing Families and Seniors • Traditionally family cares for seniors • Now families not living as close together as previous generations (different cities/countries) • Time, money, space issues with families • 3 stages of seniors moving into new housing arrangements • Retired, can move to where they want (e.g. warm climate) • Triggered by in ability to live due to death of spouse or chronic disabilities, in need of basic assistance (e.g. medication management) • Institutional setting (e.g. severe disability)

  17. Independent Senior Housing Current Krakow senior housing options • Public housing units – poor quality, long waits • Nursing home units – expensive, long waits • Has services independent seniors do not need • 70% of monthly income for rent • Avg. monthly retiree income in 2008 -2,067 złoty • Avg. monthly pensioner income in 2008 - 1,545 złoty • Nursing home rents - 1,990 złoty - 4,400 złoty per month • Senior pays out of pocket - 1,393 złoty - 3,080 złoty • Family has to make up difference in rent

  18. Independent Senior Housing Renovated one person room at a nursing home in Prądnik Biały.

  19. Independent Senior Housing Conclusions • Demographics show significantly increasing number of seniors over the next 30 years • Seniors are living longer and healthier than in previous generations • Current housing is not meeting needs of seniors • Family dynamics are changing enabling new housing options to be considered and developed • Keeping seniors independent longer puts less stress on current systems • Combination of above show need

  20. Independent Senior Housing Works Cited Household Budget Surveys in 2008, Central Statistical Office, Warsaw http://www.unece.org/highlights/what_ECE_does/English/0726054_UNECE_AGEING.pdf http://www.lifespan-roch.org/senior-housing-options.htm United States Library of Congress http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+pl0089) http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+pl0076) http://web.archive.org/web/20050309092014/http://www.unhabitat.org/habrdd/conditions/easteurope/poland.htm Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 – 2050 (Anna Matysiak, Beata Nowok, http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol17/11/

  21. Independent Senior Housing http://pewresearch.org/about/projects/ Journals of Gerontology: Psychological Science, Senior citizens tend to feel about 13 years younger than their chronological age Pestoff, Victor A., editor. “Reforming Social Services in Central and Eastern Europe – An Eleven Nation Report.” Cracow Academy of Economics, 1995 (publisher). Denton, Margaret, Ph.D. & Kusch, Karen, Ph.D. “Well-Being Throughout the Senior Years: An Issues Paper on Key Events and Transitions in Later Life”, The Expert Roundtable on Seniors Adam Kozierkiewicz, Krystyna Czarniecka, Katarzyna Szczerbinska, Andrzej Ryś. “Identification of different types of long-term care providers”. Krakow October 1st, 2005.

  22. Independent Senior Housing http://www.zds.kprm.gov.pl/userfiles/POLAND_2030_FINAL_R.pdf (Poland 2030 – developmental challenges – final recommendations) summary Geoffrey C Smith. “Geographic separation and patterns of social interaction between residents of senior citizen apartment buildings and their adult children.” Canadian Geographer. Toronto: Summer 1998. Vol. 42, Iss. 2; pg. 145, 14 pgs Timothy J. Bartik. “Maximum Score Estimates of the Determinants of Residential Mobility: Implications for the Value of Residential Attachment and Neighborhood Amenities”, Upjohn Institute Staff Working Paper 90-01. Vanderbilt University. Life Expectancy Tables of Poland 2008, Central Statistical Office, Warsaw Area and Population in Territorial Profile in 2009 (Poland), Central Statistical Office, Warsaw

  23. Independent Senior Housing C:\Users\owner\Documents\RE research for thesis\What is the Most Important Problem that Senior Citizens Face Today - Associated Content - associatedcontent_com_files\what_is_the_most_important_problem.htm, July 07, 2008 by Ronald C. Manalastas   Huei-Lih Hwanga, Huey-Shyan Linb, Ya-Ling Tungc, Hui-Ching Wud. “Correlates of perceived autonomy among elders in a senior citizen home: A cross-sectional survey”. International Journal of Nursing Studies 43 (2006) 429–437 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Conference of European Statisticians, Recommendations for the 2010 Censuses of Population and Housing, Prepared in cooperation with Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat) 2006

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